April 25, 2025
S&P futures are up 0.3% in Friday morning trading, extending a strong week for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 logged a third straight 1%+ gain, while the Nasdaq rose over 2% for a third consecutive session. Tech, cyclicals, and high short interest names have led the rally, while consumer staples have lagged. Global markets are broadly higher, with Asia (Japan, Taiwan, South Korea) and Europe both in the green. Treasuries are mixed with a curve-flattening bias. The Dollar Index is up 0.2%, gold down 1.2%, Bitcoin futures up 0.2%, crude oil off 0.4%, and copper down 1.9%.
Macro Drivers:
- Earnings remain a key support for sentiment. GOOGL reported strong results, highlighted its AI monetization strategy, and announced a $70B buyback.
- On trade, there’s growing optimism that U.S.-China tensions may have peaked. Reports suggest China may exempt some U.S. goods from its 125% tariffs, and Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled progress in U.S.-South Korea trade talks, with a potential “agreement of understanding” next week.
- Fed policy remains in focus, though no major updates since Trump said he won’t fire Powell. Still, questions linger about the future credibility of the Fed chair role following recent political pressure.
Economic Data:
- Today brings the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment print for April. Preliminary data showed sentiment at 50.8 (vs. 54.0 est. and 57.0 in March), the lowest since June 2022. 1-year inflation expectations jumped to 6.7%, the highest since 1981.
- Next week features Q1 GDP (Wed), ISM Manufacturing (Thu), and the April jobs report (Fri). Street expects ~150K job gains and an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
Earnings Highlights:
- GOOGL beat and emphasized AI growth, with strong commentary on monetization and a $70B buyback.
- TMUS missed on postpaid phone net adds and saw churn rise.
- GILD revenue fell short on weaker Veklury sales; HIV portfolio in line and 2025 guidance maintained.
- INTC beat Q1 expectations with strength in DTC and some pull-forward benefits, but Q2 guidance was light due to macro uncertainty.
- VRSN results were in line; stock already a strong YTD performer.
- CLS beat and raised guidance, but shares slipped.
- EMN noted a late-Q slowdown linked to global trade tensions and warned of recession planning.
- SKX Q1 in line but withdrew 2025 guidance on trade uncertainty.
- SAM beat and reiterated full-year outlook, though no update yet on tariff impacts.
Other News:
- AAPL is reportedly planning a major supply chain shift toward India to reduce trade exposure.
U.S. equities extended their weekly gains on Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 2.03%, Nasdaq up 2.74%, and Dow up 1.23%. Breadth remained strong, with cyclical sectors and high-beta stocks outperforming. Big tech led the rally, with strong follow-through from semiconductors and software. The move was partly attributed to continued short covering and thin positioning, with markets supported by better-than-expected earnings, ongoing tariff mitigation commentary, and slightly more dovish Fedspeak. While macro uncertainty remains, including stubborn inflation, the rhetoric around select trade and Fed off-ramps has helped ease investor concerns.
On trade, China stated there are no ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and reiterated that any meaningful talks require removal of unilateral tariffs. Despite that, reports of possible tariff relief for auto parts and near-term progress with India continue to circulate. Trump also reiterated he may pressure Fed Chair Powell to cut rates but clarified he does not intend to fire him. On the data front, March durable goods orders rose 9.2% m/m, driven by transportation, but core capital goods orders were soft. Initial jobless claims came in at 222K vs 220K consensus, and existing home sales missed at 4.02M SAAR. The dollar index fell 0.6%, gold gained 1.7%, Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, and the 7-year auction tailed slightly.
Company-Specific News by Sector:
Information Technology (+3.54%)
- TXN beat Q1 estimates and guided above consensus, citing signs of an industrial recovery. Automotive and personal electronics segments showed stabilization.
- LRCX posted a beat on FQ3 earnings and guided above consensus. China revenue mix declined as expected, but AI, DRAM, and Foundry Logic strength remained robust.
- NOW reported cRPO growth of +22% YoY, ahead of guidance, and beat on EPS. Despite trimming FY25 subscription revenue guidance, the outlook was viewed as de-risked.
- PI beat on Q1 EPS and revenue and guided Q2 above consensus. Tariff impacts were noted but manageable due to steady bookings and shipment volumes.
- APH delivered a beat across EPS, revenue, and margins, citing strong IT datacom growth and contributions from recent acquisitions.
- FI fell 18.5% after Q1 revenue missed; Merchant Solutions revenue and margin came in light, though EPS beat. FY guidance was reaffirmed but more 2H-weighted.
- MBLY rose nearly 10% after beating revenue and OM. Reaffirmed FY guidance and noted strong business development activity despite tariff headwinds.
- IBM slipped 6.6% despite beating on EPS; Red Hat deceleration and weak consulting bookings weighed on sentiment.
Communication Services (+2.31%)
- CMCSA fell 3.7% after reporting a broadband miss and larger-than-expected decline in residential net adds.
- FUBO declined 2.8% after reports of a DoJ antitrust probe into its deal with DIS‘s Hulu.
- META was in focus amid reports of layoffs in its Reality Labs division, though shares held firm on the day.
Consumer Discretionary (+2.26%)
- TSLA extended gains after reiterating Robotaxi and affordable vehicle timelines; the bar was low heading into earnings.
- HAS jumped 14.6% on a beat driven by a strategic shift toward higher-margin businesses; no material Q1 tariff impact noted. FY guidance unchanged.
- ORLY missed on EPS and margins due to investment pressure but reaffirmed guidance.
- TSCO dropped 3.4% after missing on comps and EPS; cut FY EPS guide amid increased macro uncertainty.
- JACK fell 5.7% after cutting its dividend and announcing plans to close 150–200 underperforming stores.
- LVS gained 6.5% after beating on EBITDA and doubling its buyback program to $2B, offsetting lighter Macau revenues.
Industrials (+2.23%)
- URI rose 9.9% after Q1 revenue beat and guidance was reaffirmed. The company announced a $1.5B share repurchase and strong fleet utilization trends.
- UNP fell 2% after missing on EPS and revenue; operating ratio was flat, and volumes expected to be soft due to mixed macro conditions.
- GEV reported strong growth in Power orders and backlog. Services and equipment segments both contributed to a beat; guidance reaffirmed.
- RHI dropped 3.1% on a miss and weak guidance, citing hiring delays and elongated decision cycles.
Health Care (+1.24%)
- RMD rallied 10.1% despite an EPS miss; margin expansion and tariff exemptions were positives.
- EW gained 6.6% on solid Q1 earnings and raised FY TAVR and TMTT guidance.
- BMY beat and raised FY outlook with help from legacy programs.
- MRK beat expectations, though Keytruda underperformance drew some scrutiny.
- ALK dropped 10% after issuing weaker-than-expected Q2 EPS guidance amid softening demand and cost pressures.
Financials (+1.12%)
- COF rose 3.6% after beating on EPS; credit trends improved and management reiterated confidence in consumer health.
- WTW fell 5.7% on a miss, citing lower operating income in HWC. FY guidance unchanged.
Materials (+2.02%)
- FCX rose 6.9% after beating on copper volumes and realized prices. Capex came in lower than expected.
Energy (+1.47%)
- BLCO climbed 9% after resolving a recall issue and restarting intraocular lens shipments.
Consumer Staples (-0.96%)
- PG missed on revenue and lowered FY core EPS guidance. Retailer destocking and FX headwinds cited.
- PEP and KDP were mixed, with KDP beating on Beverages and Coffee, while PEP trimmed EPS outlook.
- WMT in focus after announcing increased focus on discounts to defend share in a tough macro environment
Eco Data Releases | Friday April 25th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday April 25th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
