June 9, 2025
S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% following Friday’s broad-based rally, where all major U.S. indices gained over 1%. The S&P 500 ended the week more than 20% above its April low and ~3% below February’s record close. Overnight, Asian markets were higher with Hong Kong leading (+1.5% to a 3-month high), while European markets are modestly lower (-0.2%).
Treasuries are firmer with yields down ~2 bp across the curve. The dollar index is down 0.4%. Gold is off 0.2%, Bitcoin futures are up 0.8%, and WTI crude is marginally higher (+0.1%).
Markets are watching for developments from U.S.-China trade talks in London, with a focus on rare-earth and tech export controls. Trump said a Fed chair nomination is coming soon, potentially intensifying political pressure on the central bank, even as easing expectations fade. The Senate is expected to release its reconciliation bill this week, with Section 899 (“revenge tax”) drawing corporate pushback. In global news, Japan is reportedly considering super-long JGB buybacks to temper yield pressure, while China saw worsening May PPI deflation and weak export growth—particularly to the U.S.
It’s a quiet U.S. economic calendar today, with only NY Fed inflation expectations at 11:00. Key releases this week include NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tuesday), CPI (Wednesday), PPI and jobless claims (Thursday), and preliminary Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (Friday). The Fed remains in blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC. Treasury will auction nearly $120B in 3-, 10-, and 30-year bonds.
Corporate Highlights
- Apple (AAPL): WWDC keynote scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET.
- Meta (META): Reportedly in talks to invest billions in AI startup Scale AI.
- Tesla (TSLA): Bloomberg notes Street has been trimming delivery estimates.
- Walmart (WMT): CFO said consumers remain cautious but are still spending roughly the same as prior years.
- Qualcomm (QCOM): To acquire UK-listed Alphawave IP Group for ~$2.4B.
- Robinhood (HOOD), AppLovin (APP): Declined after being excluded from S&P 500 inclusion.
- WPP: CEO Mark Read to retire at year-end.
- IonQ (IONQ): Acquiring Oxford Ionics for $1.075B in cash and stock.
U.S. equities rallied Friday, with the Dow up 1.05%, S&P 500 up 1.03%, Nasdaq up 1.20%, and Russell 2000 up 1.66%. Major indices posted solid weekly gains, with the S&P 500 now more than 20% above its April 8 post-Liberation Day low and within 2.5% of February’s record close. The session was supported by stronger-than-expected labor market data and easing concerns around the Trump-Musk feud.
The May employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 139K, beating the 130K consensus, despite a net 95K downward revision to March and April figures. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, although a dip in the labor force participation rate helped. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m, above expectations and April’s 0.2% pace, fueling debate over wage inflation pressures.
Despite revisions, analysts viewed the labor market as resilient, with healthcare and leisure/hospitality driving job gains. Household survey data showed a notable 696K decline in employment, but the earnings growth was seen as more beneficial for consumer strength than inflationary. Overall, the report reinforced expectations for the Fed to remain in a wait-and-see stance on rates.
Treasuries sold off, especially at the short end, with 2Y and 5Y yields rising 11–13 bp and the 10Y yield topping 4.5%. The dollar index rose 0.4%, gold fell 0.8%, Bitcoin futures climbed 2.5%, and WTI crude gained 1.9%.
Trade developments were also in focus. Trump confirmed U.S.-China trade talks will resume June 9, with meetings scheduled in London. Meanwhile, China granted rare-earth export licenses to suppliers serving U.S. automakers. Reports of a potential Trump-Musk de-escalation gave TSLA a lift, though the White House downplayed the likelihood of a direct call.
Company-Specific News by GICS Sector
Information Technology
- Broadcom (AVGO): Q2 results slightly above consensus; Q3 guide mixed. AI revenue outlook remained strong, but non-AI segments underperformed.
- Samsara (IOT): Beat across key metrics, including revenue and FCF, but billings and net new ARR were weaker; elongated sales cycles and tariff pressures cited.
- Braze (BRZE): Q1 beat, but Q2 EPS guide came in light; announced executive changes and gave cautious FY guidance.
Consumer Discretionary
- Tesla (TSLA) +3.8%: Rebounded after Thursday’s sharp decline; optimism rose on reports of de-escalation in the feud with Trump.
- Lululemon (LULU) -19.8%: Q1 EPS and revenue beat, but Americas comps declined 2%; lowered FY EPS guidance due to tariffs and softer consumer demand.
- G-III Apparel (GIII) -18.7%: Q1 beat, but withdrew FY guidance citing tariff and macro uncertainty; flagged supply chain headwinds for 2H.
- Guess? (GES) +9.3%: Q1 beat across earnings, revenue, and margins; raised FY sales guidance on strength from Rag & Bone and North American shipments.
Consumer Staples
- Petco (WOOF) -23.3%: Q1 in line on revenue but comp sales fell more than expected; analysts cautious on turnaround execution.
Materials
- Mosaic (MOS) -4.4%: Cut Q2 and FY phosphate volume guidance due to maintenance issues; potash outlook unchanged.
Financials
- UBS Group (UBS) +2.3%: Rose despite Swiss regulators announcing $26B in new capital requirements; changes were widely expected.
Industrials
- Titan Machinery (TTAN): Beat and raised guidance; revenue upside lighter than previous quarter.
- Vail Resorts (MTN): Guided FY EBITDA lower, though this was already anticipated by the Street.
Healthcare
- Managed care names broadly outperformed amid risk-on sentiment and rotation back into economically sensitive groups
Eco Data Releases | Monday June 9th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday June 9th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
