June 24, 2025
S&P futures are up 0.8% in Tuesday morning trading following Monday’s equity gains, led by TSLA on its Robotaxi launch and strength in airlines, builders, regional banks, trucking, and utilities. Energy lagged amid a sharp oil selloff. Global markets are broadly higher, with Asia and Europe up over 1%. Treasuries are steady at the front end, while longer yields are up 2–3 bp. Dollar index is down 0.4%, gold off 1.8%, Bitcoin futures up 1.5%, and WTI crude down 3.5%.
The tentative Israel-Iran ceasefire confirmed Monday has eased Middle East concerns, fueling global risk-on sentiment. Even prior to the ceasefire, markets shrugged off U.S. military involvement due to minimal disruption to oil flows and muted Iranian retaliation. Dovish remarks from Fed Governors Waller and Bowman added to momentum, though political pressure on the Fed continues to stir debate over its independence. On the fiscal front, a potential SALT compromise gained some attention, while hopes persist that the White House will delay the 9-Jul reciprocal tariff deadline.
Today’s U.S. economic calendar includes Conference Board consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing, and the FHFA house price index. Fed Chair Powell begins his semiannual testimony to Congress, with Fed speakers Hammack, Williams, Collins, and Barr also on the docket. Treasury markets focus on $69B in 2-year note supply, followed by 5- and 7-year auctions midweek.
Corporate Headlines
- CCL reports earnings this morning; FDX after the close.
- SBUX denied reports it is considering a full sale of its China business, despite preliminary talks with potential buyers (Caixin).
- CHWY traded lower after top shareholder BC Partners disclosed a ~$1B secondary share sale.
- THO authorized a $400M buyback and reaffirmed support for repurchasing stock at current valuations.
- KBH Q2 results were in line, though FY25 guidance was lowered.
- FFBC to acquire Westfield Bancorp for $325M in cash and stock.
U.S. equities closed near session highs Monday, with the Dow +0.89%, S&P 500 +0.96%, Nasdaq +0.94%, and Russell 2000 +1.11%. Treasuries rallied on the day with yields falling 2–6 bp and some curve flattening. The dollar index fell 0.3%, gold rose 0.3%, Bitcoin futures declined 0.4%, and WTI crude tumbled 7.2% to below $70/barrel.
Macro and Policy Highlights
Markets showed resilience despite heightened Middle East tensions. U.S. airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear sites (Fordo, Natanz, Isfahan), but Iran’s underwhelming counterattack limited market reaction. Oil prices plunged on easing geopolitical fears and positioning-related pressure.
Dovish Fed commentary helped sentiment. Vice Chair Bowman said she could support a rate cut as soon as July if data trends remain favorable, echoing recent comments from Governor Waller. Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee noted that tariff impacts have been milder than feared and that cuts may be appropriate once economic uncertainty clears. These statements followed increasing political pressure from Trump, who again criticized Powell and floated the idea of firing him.
On the data front, the June flash U.S. PMI Composite came in at 52.8 (above consensus), with manufacturing beating and services cooling. Input and output prices surged, suggesting inflation pressures persist. May existing home sales beat expectations at 4.03M (vs. 3.95M est.), though affordability remains a headwind. This week’s calendar includes Powell’s semiannual testimony, core PCE, GDP revisions, consumer confidence, and Fed stress test results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
- Outperformers: Consumer Discretionary +1.75%, Real Estate +1.49%, Consumer Staples +1.30%, Industrials +1.29%, Utilities +1.26%, Materials +1.22%, Financials +1.21%, Technology +1.01%
- Underperformers: Energy (−2.51%), Health Care +0.11%, Communication Services
Information Technology
- AAPL reportedly discussed acquiring Perplexity AI to enhance its AI talent and capabilities.
- FI announced a new digital asset platform and the planned launch of its own stablecoin, FIUSD, by year-end.
- FDS reaffirmed FY guidance, posted slight revenue beat, and announced a $400M buyback.
- WOLF confirmed a Chapter 11 filing, with restructuring expected by Q3-end.
- CRCL rose on news it will be a partner in FI’s stablecoin rollout to 3,000+ regional banks.
Consumer Discretionary
- TSLA launched Robotaxi rides in Austin to select invitees.
- DASH upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James on Deliveroo synergies and longer-term autonomous delivery upside.
Health Care
- NVO terminated its partnership with HIMS, halting access to Wegovy via NovoCare pharmacy.
- LLY declined after the UK’s NHS deemed its Alzheimer’s treatment (donanemab/Kisunla) not cost-effective.
- EXEL rose on positive Phase 3 trial data for zanzalintinib combined with atezolizumab.
- TDOC surged after Citron Research highlighted insurance billing potential via its UpLift acquisition.
Financials
- BK reportedly approached NTRS about a potential merger, though no formal offer was made.
- NTRS surged on the report of BK’s interest.
- BK shares declined despite being the suitor.
- FDS, parent of StreetAccount, posted a solid quarter and buyback authorization.
Industrials
- CMC missed on EPS and revenue but guided to Q4 improvement amid higher steel margins.
Materials
- FMC upgraded to Overweight at Wells Fargo, citing confidence in 2024 bottom and strong partnerships with Bayer and Corteva.
- DOW downgraded to Underperform at BMO on persistent weakness in pricing and end markets.
Consumer Staples
- HIMS collapsed after NVO pulled its Wegovy supply agreement.
- SPTN agreed to be acquired by C&S Wholesale Grocers for $1.77B in cash.
- EL upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank, citing resolution of earlier issues and diversification beyond China.
Energy
- Broader energy sector lagged (-2.51%) on crude’s sharp decline following muted Iranian retaliation and risk-off in geopolitics.
- Major oil producers like BP, TotalEnergies, and Eni reportedly pulled staff from Iraqi fields as a precaution.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday June 24th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday June 24th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
