July 15, 2025
S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% ahead of the June CPI report, following a quiet Monday session where growth, momentum, and key sectors like A&D, banks, software, and biotech led gains. Asian markets rallied overnight, led by Hong Kong (+1.5%) on tech strength. European markets are up ~0.3%. Treasuries are firmer at the long end, the dollar is down 0.1%, gold is up 0.3%, Bitcoin futures are down 2.7%, and WTI crude is flat.
June CPI is in focus, with expectations for a 0.3% m/m rise in both headline and core, pushing y/y to 2.7% and 3.0%, respectively. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey also prints today. Market sentiment leans toward a slightly cooler CPI print, with delayed tariff impacts still a concern. Fedspeak features Bowman, Barr, Barkin, Collins, and Logan. Bank earnings are next on deck, with cautious optimism despite high expectations. Overseas, China Q2 GDP topped estimates while June data showed mixed results.
Looking Ahead:
PPI, industrial production, and the Beige Book are due Wednesday, followed by retail sales, jobless claims, and sentiment data Thursday and Friday.
Key Movers & Headlines:
- NVDA (+) gains after securing U.S. approval to resume H20 AI chip sales to China, following CEO Jensen Huang’s meeting with Trump.
- TTD (+) will replace ANSS in the S&P 500.
- ACN and WPP reportedly exploring a merger.
- NEM and MAR announced CFO departures/retirement.
- LZB guided sales/margins to the low end of prior range; will acquire 15 stores.
- RRGB lowered Q2 comp guidance but raised EBITDA outlook.
U.S. equities closed modestly higher Monday in a quiet session (Dow +0.20%, S&P 500 +0.14%, Nasdaq +0.27%, Russell 2000 +0.67%), with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending near their intraday highs. Treasury yields were flat to slightly higher, the dollar index rose 0.3%, gold declined 0.2%, and Bitcoin futures rose 1.4% to stay above $120K. WTI crude fell 2.2%, reversing premarket gains, while copper declined 0.9% after last week’s nearly 9% surge.
There were no U.S. economic releases on the day. Attention now turns to Tuesday’s June CPI report, where consensus expects a 0.3% m/m increase in both headline and core CPI, pushing the y/y rates to 2.7% and 3.0%, respectively. Upside risks are concentrated in core goods, with tariff-related price pressures expected to show up in vehicle prices. Retail sales, PPI, and industrial production later in the week will offer further insights into the state of the consumer and industrial economy. The market is currently pricing in a ~60% chance of a September rate cut, though Fed commentary remains cautious.
Cleveland Fed President Hammack reiterated there is “no imminent need” for rate cuts, emphasizing the need for more progress on inflation. Meanwhile, political pressure on Chair Powell is intensifying. Over the weekend, FHFA Director Pulte said Powell is considering resigning, while others, including Trump advisor Hassett, have discussed legal pathways to remove him. The Fed released an FAQ defending its $2.5B headquarters renovation, countering criticism from Trump’s advisors.
On the trade front, President Trump escalated tensions by threatening 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico imports starting August 1. EU officials expressed surprise and said the tariff levels would make U.S.-EU trade “almost impossible.” Reports suggest little progress in negotiations, though analysts maintain that the aggressive posture may be a bargaining tactic. Complacency in markets despite these threats continues to be a point of concern. The so-called TACO dynamic (Tariffs Are Coming — Optimism) still underpins risk-on sentiment, aided by neutral positioning and expectations of AI-led capex growth.
Information Technology (–0.25%)
- AAPL reportedly offered up to $150M for U.S. rights to Formula One.
- ADSK ended its pursuit of PTC, citing strategic focus on cloud and AI.
- ANSS rose after China approved its acquisition by SNPS.
- GEN gained 3.9% after B Riley initiated with a Buy, citing its cybersecurity and fintech positioning.
- SOUN fell 1% after Piper downgraded the stock on profitability and execution risks.
Communication Services (+0.73%)
- GOOGL will pay $2.4B to license technology from AI coding startup Windsurf and hire its CEO and select staff.
- META closed a deal to acquire voice-AI startup PlayAI; reports say it may pivot away from its open-source Behemoth model.
Financials (+0.67%)
- PYPL gained 3.6% after an upgrade at Seaport, with analysts noting tariff risks were better than feared.
- HBAN announced the acquisition of VBTX in a ~$33.91/share all-stock deal; VBTX surged nearly 20%.
- PAY rose 5.8% after an upgrade at Raymond James, with analysts highlighting its total addressable market.
Real Estate (+0.67%)
Sector was supported by a broader rotation into rate-sensitive segments amid stable long-end yields. No major headlines.
Industrials (+0.54%)
- BA rose after reports from the Air India crash investigation indicated switches were likely toggled prior to the incident, shifting blame.
- FAST beat on Q2 earnings, posting stronger unit sales and margin expansion.
- RKLB surged 10.7% after Citi raised its price target, citing satellite system growth.
- VC rose 3.4% after an upgrade at UBS based on valuation and new client growth.
Consumer Discretionary (+0.37%)
- AMZN was slightly weaker despite a 30%+ jump in Prime Day online sales.
- BBY fell 1.2% after a downgrade at Piper Sandler, citing a lack of near-term catalysts.
- RIVN dropped 2.2% on a Guggenheim downgrade driven by reduced expectations for the R1 and assumptions around the R2/R3 product lines.
Utilities (+0.35%)
No major company headlines. Sector gained amid a slight pullback in yields and defensive interest.
Consumer Staples (+0.13%)
- KHC continued to rally on reports of a potential $20B grocery business spinoff.
- U.S. ice cream producers announced plans to eliminate artificial colors by 2028.
Healthcare (–0.10%)
- WAT declined 13.8% following its announced $17.5B merger with BDX’s Biosciences unit, with concerns raised over deal complexity.
- HSIC fell 3.7% after Baird downgraded the stock amid speculation it may lose a major client.
Materials (–0.44%)
- FLNC dropped 2.8% following a Mizuho downgrade citing impacts from the “One Big Beautiful Bill” and growing competition.
- Copper and aluminum prices declined following last week’s tariff-driven rally, putting pressure on metals-exposed names.
Energy (–1.20%)
- Sector lagged as WTI crude declined 2.2%.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday July 15th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday July 15th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
