July 25, 2025
S&P futures up 0.1% in early Friday trading after a quiet Thursday session where the S&P and Nasdaq set new all-time highs. Outperformance came from energy, asset managers, cybersecurity, trucking, and exchanges, while GOOGL led the Mag 7 on earnings and TSLA fell. Laggards included multis (conglomerates), airlines, managed care, chemicals, restaurants, and recent retail/meme favorites.
Overseas markets were weaker: Asia mostly down with Japan and Hong Kong underperforming, and Europe off ~0.3%. Treasuries slightly weaker; yields up ~1 bp. The dollar gained 0.3%, gold fell 0.7%, Bitcoin dropped 3.1%, and crude oil rose 0.4%.
Headlines remain sparse as markets await a potential US-EU trade deal ahead of the Aug. 1 reciprocal tariff deadline. Attention is also turning to next week’s heavy earnings calendar, including four Mag 7 names, the July employment report, and the FOMC decision. While AI optimism, macro resilience, and low volatility support equities, there’s growing concern around Fed easing expectations, higher effective tariffs, and a soft housing market.
Earnings highlights:
- INTC: Q2 beat aided by tariff pull-ins; Q3 revenue better, EPS light on Lunar Lake ramp margins.
- EW: Beat; global TAVR strength noted.
- DLR: Beat and raised; 0–1MW data center demand strong.
- NEM: Beat on higher gold output, pricing, and cost control.
- DECK: Beat with international markets a tailwind.
- BYD: Helped by strong EBITDAR; M&A concerns fading.
- MHK: Q2 beat; $500M buyback authorized.
- SAM: Strong Q2; over-shipping flagged, tariff headwinds manageable.
- PNFP/SNV: Announced $8.6B all-stock merger.
- SCHW: Announced new $20B buyback.
Today’s data:
- June durable goods expected down 10.8% m/m (prior +16.4%).
- Core capex orders seen up 0.2% (prior +1.7%).
Looking ahead (week of Jul 28):
- FOMC decision (Wed), July jobs report (Fri), quarterly Treasury refunding, and earnings from MSFT, META (7/30) and AAPL, AMZN (7/31)—together representing ~40% of S&P 500 market cap.
U.S. equities finished mixed on Thursday (Dow -0.70%, S&P 500 +0.07%, Nasdaq +0.18%, Russell 2000 -1.36%) with narrow trading ranges. While the S&P and Nasdaq notched fresh all-time highs, breadth was negative and the equal-weight S&P closed lower. Treasury yields rose ~4 bp at the front end, but lagged a more significant backup in European bond markets. The dollar strengthened (+0.2%), gold declined 0.7%, and Bitcoin futures rose 0.6%. Crude oil gained 1.2%.
Economic data showed initial jobless claims fell to 217K (vs 227K est.), the lowest since April. Continuing claims ticked up slightly to 1.955M. The July flash composite PMI rose to 54.6 (vs 52.7 est.), driven by strength in services (55.2) despite manufacturing slipping into contraction (49.5). Tariffs were cited as a driver of cost inflation in the report. June new home sales rose just 0.6% m/m to 627K, missing 655K expectations.
On policy, the ECB left its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0%, its first pause in over a year. U.S. trade headlines were quiet, though attention remained on Trump’s 4pm visit to the Fed and updates on tariff retaliation from the EU. A macro-heavy week awaits with the FOMC decision and July employment report due next week, alongside the Aug. 1 tariff deadline.
Sector & Stock Highlights
Outperformers: Energy +0.71%, Tech +0.67%, Comm Services +0.51%
Underperformers: Consumer Disc. -1.23%, Materials -0.75%, Health Care -0.42%, Cons. Staples -0.32%, Industrials -0.16%, Utilities -0.14%, Real Estate -0.10%, Financials -0.04%
Information Technology
- GOOGL (+1.0%): Q2 EPS beat; strength in Search, YouTube, and Cloud; raised FY capex guide by $10B to ~$85B; strong AI monetization commentary.
- NOW (+4.2%): Subscription and cRPO growth ahead; guidance raised; commentary positive on large deal momentum and public sector.
- IBM (-7.6%): Beat on EPS/revenue; consulting bookings weak, software segment decelerating.
- MXL (+12.6%): Revenue beat, Q3 guide strong; analysts bullish on infrastructure and broadband acceleration.
- TSLA (-8.2%): Revenue/EPS in line, though FCF missed; credits down >50%; Musk warned of “rough quarters” ahead but hyped Robotaxi/Optimus timelines.
Health Care
- MOH (-16.8%): EPS miss, MLR up across all segments; slashed FY guidance again.
- LH (+6.9%): Q2 beat; both diagnostics and biopharma outperformed; FY guidance raised.
- UNH (-4.8%): Disclosed DOJ investigations into Medicare billing practices.
- WST (+22.8%): Big beat, FY guide raised including tariff impacts; boosted dividend 4.8%.
Industrials
- HON (-6.2%): Aerospace segment light; raised FY midpoint but cut segment margins.
- UNP (-4.5%): EPS beat; revenue in line, volumes light; merger talks with NSC confirmed.
- URI (unch.): Raised low end of FY EBITDA; fleet productivity improved.
- LHX (+1.3%): Broad-based Q2 beat; FY revenue/FCF guidance raised; Comms segment weak.
- POOL (+3.3%): EBITDA beat; FY guide cut but not as bad as feared.
- BC (-8.2%): Beat on Q2 but Q3 guide light; boat retail sales underperforming.
Financials
- BX (+3.6%): Q2 EPS beat; AUM and fundraising trends positive.
- NDAQ (+5.9%): Q2 beat led by FinTech; ARR up 10% y/y; pipeline commentary strong.
- TMUS (+5.8%): Q2 beat across EBITDA/revenue; raised postpaid net adds, lifted low end of FY EBITDA guide.
Consumer Discretionary
- CMG (-13.3%): Q2 miss on comps; trimmed FY comp guide; margin a modest bright spot.
- MAT (-16.4%): Q2 EPS beat but revenue fell 6% y/y; lowered EPS and revenue guide.
- LKQ (-17.8%): EPS miss, lowered FY guidance; Europe/North America remain weak; tariffs a headwind.
Consumer Staples
- No major outperformers noted.
- DOW (-17.5%): Big EBITDA miss; cut dividend 50%; concerns over pricing, trade, and weaker earnings guidance.
Energy
- LVS (+4.3%): Strong results in Macao/Singapore; accelerating buybacks; seen as undervalued.
- CVX (noted): Resumed Venezuelan oil production after diplomatic agreement.
- AAL (-9.6%), LUV (-11.2%): Both airlines disappointed on Q2 metrics; guidance reduced.
- RS (Steel) (decliner): Weaker volumes; macro and trade pressure.
Communication Services
- GOOGL (+1.0%): See above.
- C3.ai (noted): CEO stepping down for health reasons; search underway.
- OpenAI: GPT-5 launch rumored as early as next month.
Real Estate, Utilities, and Materials
- DOW (see above, Materials).
- TLN (not mentioned): Nuclear-exposed names continue to benefit from PJM auction
Eco Data Releases | Friday July 25th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday July 25th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
