July 29, 2025
S&P futures up 0.2% in Tuesday morning trading, following a quiet Monday where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted sixth-straight record closes. Market breadth remained narrow, with the equal-weight S&P 500 underperforming by ~60 bp. Overnight, Asia traded mixed (Greater China and South Korea outperformed, Japan lagged), while Europe is up ~1%. Treasuries are flat to slightly weaker. Dollar index +0.1%, extending Monday’s rally. Gold +0.4%, WTI crude +0.6% after Monday’s 2.5% gain on renewed Russia sanctions threats.
Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the next wave of Mag 7 earnings (MSFT, META on 7/30; AAPL, AMZN on 7/31). Bullish sentiment continues to be anchored by a resilient U.S. macro backdrop, easing tariff uncertainty, earnings strength, AI enthusiasm, expected rate cuts, and upcoming buyback flows. However, concerns remain over Fed divisions, record-high effective tariff rates, skepticism around trade-deal investment pledges, and potential AI-related labor displacement.
Today’s calendar includes trade balance, JOLTS, home prices, and consumer confidence. Wednesday features ADP payrolls, Q2 GDP (advance), pending home sales, and the FOMC. Thursday brings the ECI, core PCE, claims, and Chicago PMI, while Friday caps with NFP, ISM manufacturing, and UMich sentiment.
Notable Earnings & News:
- CDNS (+): Surged on beat-and-raise, highlighting AI leverage.
- NUE (−): Lowered Q3 guidance on margin pressures in Steel Mills.
- HIG (+), CINF (+): Both beat, helped by stronger underwriting and Commercial Lines.
- CLS (+): Beat and raised; expects to recover most tariffs from customers.
- WWD (±): Solid results, but cautious tone on capex ramp.
- CR (+): Beat and raised.
- UHS (+): Boosted by favorable DPP payments.
- WHR (−): Missed and cut FY guide on tariffs, weak sentiment, and promos.
- AMKR (+): Tailwind from advanced packaging noted.
- HLIT (−): Cut guidance on project timing delays.
- WU (−): Missed and lowered outlook on softer NA retail trends.
- UNP/NSC: UNP reportedly nearing ~$72B cash-stock deal to acquire NSC.
- BKR/GTLS: BKR said to be near acquisition of GTLS.
- PG: Announced CEO transition.
- NTRS: Authorized $2.5B buyback.
- MSM: CFO transition; Q4 tracking toward high end of guidance.
U.S. equities ended Monday mixed (Dow -0.14%, S&P 500 +0.02%, Nasdaq +0.33%, Russell 2000 -0.19%). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest gains and notched a sixth-straight record close, but underlying breadth was negative, with the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) underperforming by nearly 60 bp. Treasuries weakened slightly with 2- to 5-year yields rising 1–4 bp; the curve steepened modestly. The Dollar Index rose 1% on euro weakness. Gold fell 0.8%, Bitcoin futures rose 0.8%, and WTI crude gained 2.4%.
Trade remained the central macro theme. The U.S. and EU finalized a trade deal based on a 15% tariff rate, $750B in U.S. energy purchases, and $600B in investment pledges. Meanwhile, U.S.–China trade talks resumed in Stockholm, with reports pointing to a 90-day extension of their tariff truce. While these developments eased some near-term uncertainty, concerns remain around elevated effective tariff rates, market concentration, and risks of lower-than-expected Fed cuts.
On the economic front, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index surprised positively, though tariffs remain a concern in survey commentary. Treasury borrowing estimates for Q3 were revised sharply higher to $1T+ from $554B, citing the need to rebuild the TGA. Attention now shifts to Wednesday’s quarterly refunding announcement.
This week’s economic calendar is full:
- Tuesday: Trade balance, Case-Shiller/FHFA home prices, JOLTS, consumer confidence
- Wednesday: ADP payrolls, Q2 GDP (first read), pending home sales, FOMC decision
- Thursday: Q2 ECI, personal income/spending, core PCE, initial claims, Chicago PMI
- Friday: July jobs report, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, Michigan sentiment
The FOMC decision on Wednesday is expected to hold rates steady, with the market pricing in just a 3% chance of a cut. Street focus is on the risk of dissent from Governors Waller and Bowman, which would be the first dual dissent at a Fed meeting since 1993.
S&P 500 Sector Performance & Company highlights
Energy (+1.15%), Information Technology (+0.77%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.69%) outperformed on the day. Meanwhile, Real Estate (−1.75%), Materials (−1.44%), Utilities (−1.05%), Consumer Staples (−0.89%), Health Care (−0.83%), Financials (−0.67%), Industrials (−0.29%), and Communication Services (−0.18%) lagged.
Information Technology
- TXN (+2.3%): Upgraded to Outperform at Wolfe Research; noted margin leverage potential post-capex cycle and improving analog cycle.
- MDB (+1.3%): Initiated Outperform at BMO; cited leadership in database software, GenAI opportunity, and large TAM.
- CSCO (−1.1%): Downgraded to In-Line at Evercore ISI; flagged limited AI upside and stretched valuation after 46% rally in 12 months.
Consumer Discretionary
- NKE (+3.9%): Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan; sees acceleration in growth and 500bp margin recapture potential.
- TSLA (+3.0%): Announced long-term semiconductor production agreement with Samsung for next-gen AI6 self-driving chips.
Energy
- LNG (+1.4%): Benefiting from EU’s $250B annual U.S. energy purchase commitment under new trade deal.
- ARLP (−1.7%): Q2 miss on revenue, EBITDA, and EPS; Tunnel Ridge mine flagged for challenging conditions, lower oil also a headwind for royalties.
Health Care
- RVTY (−8.3%): Posted Q2 beat on revenue (helped by FX), but margin soft; Diagnostics segment weak and FY guide trimmed.
Industrials
- WFRD (+3.7%): Upgraded to Overweight at Piper Sandler; noted stabilization in Mexico and improving execution.
Communication Services
- No notable moves.
Financials
- PD (+7.1%): Reported it’s exploring strategic options including a sale; TD Cowen upgraded to Buy.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday July 29th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday July 29th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
