August 28, 2025
S&P futures little changed Thursday after U.S. equities closed higher Wednesday with the S&P 500 at a new ATH. Software, banks, energy, retail, and travel & leisure led gains, while most-shorted and tariff-exposed names also outperformed. Asia mixed overnight (Shanghai, Japan, Australia, South Korea higher; Hong Kong, Taiwan weaker). Europe +0.2%. Treasuries slightly firmer out the curve. Dollar index –0.2%. Gold +0.2%. Bitcoin futures +0.4%. WTI crude –0.6%.
No major new narrative drivers. NVDA beat and raised but flagged light Data Center results and ongoing China uncertainty. Market focus turns to Friday’s core PCE, expected +0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y. Current debate leans more on labor market signals than near-term inflation.
Bullish themes: positive earnings revisions, Fed easing expectations, buybacks, AI growth narrative, easing regulation.
Bearish themes: tariff headwinds, services inflation, stretched valuations, seasonality, extended systematic longs, AI capex scrutiny, political interference in monetary policy.
Today’s calendar: Q2 GDP revisions, initial claims, pending home sales, $44B 7Y Treasury auction. Fed Gov. Waller speaks this evening. Friday brings income/spending, core PCE, and UMich sentiment.
Earnings highlights:
- NVDA: Beat/raise, strong AI compute demand; Data Center light, China uncertainty.
- CRWD: Beat/raise, but softer implied 2H guide.
- SNOW: Surged on big product revenue beat, core warehouse strength.
- VEEV: Positive takeaways, but valuation remains overhang.
- HPQ: Beat, PC share gains supportive.
- NTAP: Weaker U.S. public sector, product GM miss.
- NTNX: FQ4 ahead, guidance disappointed.
- PSTG: Up big on core business strength, META deal update.
- COO: Down sharply, weak CVI performance.
- FIVE: Jumped on Q2 comp beat, upbeat back-to-school commentary.
- URBN: Takeaways positive overall, but tariff headwinds expected to rise in 2H
U.S. equities finished higher Wednesday (U.S. Market Recap: Dow +0.32%, S&P 500 +0.24%, Nasdaq +0.21%, Russell 2000 +0.64%), with the S&P 500 setting a new record close as stocks ended just off best levels. The session was quiet overall as markets waited on NVDA results after the close and Friday’s core PCE inflation print. Treasuries were mixed with more curve steepening — short-end yields fell ~6 bp while long-end moved little, pushing the 2Y/30Y spread to ~130 bp, its widest in nearly four years. The $70B 5Y auction tailed 0.7 bp, though domestic demand was solid, following a well-received 2Y auction on Tuesday. Dollar index ended flat after intraday strength, gold settled +0.5%, Bitcoin futures +0.8%, and WTI crude +1.4%.
Narratives largely unchanged. Markets continue to price in an 87% probability of a September Fed rate cut and ~55 bp of easing this year. Political pressure on the Fed (Trump’s push to oust Governor Cook) remains a focus, but muted market reaction reflects limited near-term policy implications. Tariffs stayed in the headlines as Treasury Secretary Bessent flagged revenue could ramp to ~$500B annually, while 50% punitive tariffs on India went into effect today.
Sector Highlights
Energy led (+1.15%), supported by crude strength and M&A. Tech (+0.48%) and Real Estate (+0.43%) also outperformed on cloud/software momentum and activist positioning. Most sectors saw small gains, though Communication Services (–0.09%), Health Care (–0.03%), and Industrials (–0.02%) lagged. Consumer Staples (+0.22%) was weighed down by tariff-driven cost concerns (notably at SJM).
- Information Technology
- MDB +38%: Q2 beat and raised FY guidance. Highlights included Atlas acceleration, stronger U.S. enterprise demand, margin expansion, and upmarket traction. Analysts also flagged AI tailwinds and pointed to September’s analyst day as a catalyst.
- OKTA +1.6%: Q2 beat and raise; subscription backlog up 18% y/y. Takeaways highlighted resilience in U.S. public sector, enterprise reacceleration, new product ramps, pipeline commentary, and tuck-in M&A. Full-year outlook lifted; NRR stabilized.
- BOX +4.2%: Q2 beat across EPS, revenue, margins, billings, and RPO. Noted customer upgrades and new wins driven by AI products; raised FY guide. Analysts positive on seat-growth commentary.
- SMTC: Q2 revenue/EPS ahead; Q3 guide mixed. Strength in datacenter and high-end consumer offset by softer CopperEdge.
- Consumer Discretionary
- KSS +24%: Q2 beat on revenue, EPS, and OM; comp decline narrower than expected. Benefits from GM expansion, inventory reductions, cost cuts. Raised FY guide. Elevated short interest fueled outsized move.
- ANF –1.4%: Q2 beat and raised FY26 guidance but flagged larger tariff headwinds (170 bp hit to net sales vs 100 bp previously). Hollister strong, but Q3 guide below consensus.
- PVH: Q2 beat, raised FY revenue outlook. Takeaways highlighted cost control, product initiatives.
- AEO +8.5%: Jumped on Travis Kelce collaboration launch.
- CBRL +8%: Higher after announcing a return to its old “Old Timer” logo following pushback to rebranding.
- GOOS +16.2%: Spiked on reports Bain Capital received multiple privatization offers valuing company at ~$1.35B.
- DNUT –3.5%: Downgraded to underweight at JPM; concerns around canceled MCD partnership, higher costs, turnaround uncertainty, growing competition.
- Consumer Staples
- SJM –4.4%: Fiscal Q1 sales/EPS a bit light. Organic growth +2% beat Street by 70 bp. Raised FY revenue growth guidance but reaffirmed EPS and cut GM outlook due to higher tariff impact on green coffee. Analysts flagged elevated buyside expectations, disappointment on EPS guide.
- Financials
- DB –4.8%: Downgraded to neutral at GS after +116% YTD run; valuation seen as fair though profitability improvements ongoing.
- IBKR: Boosted after being announced for S&P 500 inclusion.
- Industrials
- DCI: Beat and guided ahead; highlighted execution and solid demand trends.
- AHL +13.7%: Agreed to be acquired by Sompo in a ~$3.5B cash deal ($37.50/share).
- HEI: Highlighted continued aerospace aftermarket demand, stronger FSG margins.
- Health Care
- ELAN: Added to S&P MidCap 400.
- LLY +5.9%: Reported anti-obesity pill trial met weight-loss targets; diabetic patients lost 10.5% of body weight, similar to results for injectables.
- Communication Services
- TMUS: Reportedly eyeing SATS spectrum not purchased by T in its $23B deal.
- SPOT: FT interview signaled more price hikes as new features roll out.
- Energy
- XOM: Reportedly held talks with Rosneft on possible re-entry to Russia.
- CRGY: Announced acquisition of VTLE.
Eco Data Releases | Thursday August 28th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Thursday August 28th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
