September 16, 2025
S&P futures up 0.2% Tuesday after Monday’s gains, led by Mag 7 strength (TSLA, GOOGL). Nasdaq 100 logged its ninth straight advance, the longest in nearly two years, though equal-weight S&P declined with staples and healthcare both down >1%. Asia mostly higher (Korea +1%), Europe flat. Treasuries steady to firmer, dollar (0.2%), gold +0.4%, Bitcoin +0.3%, WTI crude (0.3%).
Markets await Wednesday’s FOMC, with a 25 bp cut fully expected. Court blocked Trump’s effort to fire Fed Governor Cook, while Senate confirmed Miran, who may dissent in favor of 50 bp. Bullish drivers include elevated cut expectations, resilient earnings revisions, optimism on U.S.–China talks, and AI enthusiasm. Some caution around potential “sell-the-news” reaction given ~150 bp of cuts already priced in, plus seasonality and buyback blackouts.
Today’s U.S. data: retail sales, industrial production, trade, business inventories, NAHB housing index. Housing starts and permits due Wednesday before the Fed decision, followed by jobless claims and Philly Fed Thursday.
Corporate highlights:
- NVDA: Reuters said new China chip facing lukewarm demand.
- MSFT: Raised dividend nearly 10%.
- ORCL: Boosted on reports of key role in TikTok deal.
- OpenAI: Hired ex-xAI CFO, fueling Altman–Musk feud headlines.
- CMG: Board authorized $500M more for buybacks.
- LYV: Bloomberg said FTC probing TicketMaster bots.
- STLD: Guided Q3 EPS above consensus, highlighted strong shipments.
- BCC: Guided Q3 EBITDA below Street on weak wood/building materials.
- HOG: Added two independent directors.
- ARCB: Expanded buyback program.
- ADTN: Fell on $150M convertible note offering.
- PLAY: Dropped on Q2 miss.
- DENN: JCP Investment and Jumana disclosed 9.4% stake.
U.S. equities ended higher Monday (Dow +0.11%, S&P 500 +0.47%, Nasdaq +0.94%, Russell 2000 +0.34%) in another quiet, rangebound session. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs, supported by strength in big tech and select cyclicals. Treasuries were slightly firmer with yields down 1–2 bp, while the dollar index slipped 0.2%. Gold gained 0.9%, settling above $3,700 for the first time. Bitcoin futures fell 1.3%. WTI crude rose 1.0%.
Macro focus remains on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where markets expect a 25 bp cut, though Trump has publicly called for a “big cut.” Updated dot plots and projections will be scrutinized, particularly around labor-market assumptions and the rate path. U.S.–China trade headlines also drew attention: talks in Madrid produced a framework agreement on TikTok ownership, to be finalized in a Trump-Xi call Friday. At the same time, China said NVDA violated antitrust rules and launched an anti-dumping probe targeting U.S. analog chip firms, including TXN and ADI. Domestically, the Empire manufacturing index dropped into negative territory for the first time since June, highlighting weaker new orders and shipments. A Senate vote on Fed nominee Stephen Miran could clear him to join this week’s policy meeting.
Sector Performance
Tech and communication services led gains, buoyed by strength in AI and internet names. Consumer discretionary also outperformed on department store and retail momentum. Defensive groups lagged, with consumer staples and healthcare under pressure, while materials and energy were softer despite a modest lift in metals and oil prices.
Company News by GICS Sector
Information Technology
- NVDA: Slightly lower after China ruled its Mellanox acquisition violated antitrust laws.
- TXN, ADI: Pressured as China opened an anti-dumping investigation into U.S. analog chip imports.
- GOOGL: +4.5% on hitting $3T market cap; Gemini overtook ChatGPT as most downloaded app; Citi raised PT to $280.
- CRWV: +7.6% after expanding its NVDA-linked datacenter capacity agreement.
- WDC: +4.8% on reports it is raising HDD prices amid strong demand.
- ETN: +2.6% after Melius upgraded to Buy, citing AI capex tailwinds.
Consumer Discretionary
- TSLA: +3.6% after Musk disclosed a 2.57M share purchase; ramping German output.
- RH: (4.6%) after a Q2 miss and guidance cut, citing tariff headwinds and weak housing.
- VFC: Announced sale of Dickies brand to Bluestar Alliance for $600M.
Communication Services
- WBD: +7.6% on continued momentum after reports of PSKY preparing a takeover bid.
- TKO: +1.4% after authorizing $1B share repurchases.
- HIMS: (2.8%) after FDA flagged Super Bowl ad for regulatory violations.
Healthcare
- UNH: Reports suggest it has been unable to secure meetings with Trump as it faces regulatory scrutiny.
- HAIN: (24.7%) after FQ4 miss and soft organic sales, flagged challenges in snacks and meal prep.
- MRNA, PFE: Weakness after reports Trump officials plan to link vaccines to child deaths.
Industrials
- ALK: (6.7%) after a negative preannouncement; guided EPS to low end of prior range amid cost and operational pressures.
- WHR: Reportedly told U.S. officials rivals are evading tariffs by undervaluing imports.
Financials
- UBS: +2.1% after reports it may shift domicile to the U.S. to escape Swiss capital rules.
- BAM: In talks to acquire Yes! Communities in a ~$10B deal.
- CTVA: (5.7%) after reports of potential breakup; analysts skeptical on strategic rationale.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday September 16th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday September 16th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
