September 22, 2025
S&P futures down 0.3% Monday morning after all three major U.S. indices closed at record highs Friday, extending a third straight week of gains. Small caps continued to outperform with the Russell 2000 hitting a fresh record. Asia mixed (Japan +1%, Hong Kong weak), Europe lower (~0.4%). Treasuries flat, dollar index –0.1%, gold +1.4%, Bitcoin –2.5%, WTI crude +0.1%.
Macro backdrop remains steady with markets focused on Fed easing, resilient U.S. data (retail sales, claims, Philly Fed), and supportive positioning/sentiment. Broader rally breadth and AI momentum seen cushioning potential big-tech rotation, though quarter-end dynamics, tariff lag effects, and China AI competition remain caution flags. Government shutdown odds largely ignored.
No major data today, but heavy week for Fedspeak (Williams, Musalem, Barkin, Miran Monday; Powell Tuesday; Daly, Goolsbee, Barr, Logan, Bowman later in week). Key data includes PMIs Tuesday, new home sales Wednesday, durable goods/claims/GDP Thursday, and core PCE Friday.
Corporate news:
- AAPL: Boosting iPhone 17 base model production by 30–40%.
- ORCL/META: Discussing ~$20B cloud deal; ORCL, DELL, FOX to be part of TikTok deal.
- TSLA: Approved for autonomous driving tests in Arizona.
- PFE: Near $7.3B acquisition of obesity drug developer MTSR.
- CMCSA: Cutting jobs in connectivity/media division.
- KVUE: White House to probe acetaminophen-autism link.
- US Steel: White House blocks Illinois plant closure via “golden share.”
U.S. equities ended mostly higher Friday (Dow +0.37%, S&P 500 +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.72%, Russell 2000 (0.77%)), with the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow all closing at record highs, while the Russell 2000 slipped. Breadth was negative, with equal-weight S&P (RSP) underperforming cap-weight by ~70 bp. Treasuries weakened with curve steepening, the dollar index gained 0.3%, gold rose 0.7%, Bitcoin futures fell 1.6%, and WTI crude declined 1.4% after new Russian sanctions underwhelmed. Trading was quiet with quad witching in focus. Key bullish narratives remained intact—Fed easing, resilient macro data (retail sales, initial claims), and AI momentum—while risks such as China’s AI competition, stretched valuations, soft housing, and trade headwinds remained in the background. Looking ahead, next week’s focus shifts to September flash PMIs, core PCE, and earnings from MU and COST.
Sector Highlights
Technology led Friday’s gains (+1.19%) with strength in Apple and AI-linked names offsetting weakness in semis, while Communication Services (+0.52%) also outperformed on positive CRM and AI headlines. Utilities (+0.65%) saw a defensive bid, unusual given weaker Treasuries, suggesting some rotation into yield-oriented names. On the downside, Energy (1.28%) lagged on underwhelming sanctions and crude weakness. Real Estate (0.47%) and Consumer Staples (0.25%) underperformed as investors leaned toward growth and cyclicals. Industrials, Materials, and Financials eked out small gains, while Healthcare (+0.15%) was little changed. Overall, leadership remained narrow, concentrated in mega-cap tech, but easing expectations and resilient macro data continued to provide a strong floor for equities
- Information Technology:
AAPL (+3.2%) – Bloomberg reported strong early demand in Asia for the iPhone 17 Pro, with wait times up to four weeks.
• CRWV (+2.9%) – Initiated buy at Loop Capital; cited material P&L upside potential.
• CTSH (4.7%) – Weighed down by reports of a $100K Trump administration fee on H-1B visas.
• INTC (3.2%) – Downgraded to sell at Citi; argued shares already price in successful foundry business post-Nvidia partnership, which analysts see as unlikely to succeed. - Consumer Discretionary:
TSLA (+2.2%) – Upgraded to outperform at Baird; cited AI leadership, Optimus reveal, robotaxi expansion, and Musk’s pay package approval.
• LEN (4.2%) – Post-earnings laggard after missing Q3 home sales revenue and GM; softer Q4 guidance flagged continued housing pressures.
• OPEN (3.7%) – Fell after CFO resignation; Christy Schwartz named interim CFO. - Industrials:
FDX (+2.4%) – Beat on Q1 EPS/revenue; upside focused on stronger Express performance despite softer Freight; Street positive on 4–6% revenue growth guidance. - Financials:
LNC (+3.6%) – Upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley; highlighted underappreciated Group Protection segment and margin expansion.
• JEF – Expanded partnership with Sumitomo Mitsui.
• GNW – Boosted buyback by $350M. - Communication Services:
KVYO (+5.0%) – Upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley; highlighted expanded opportunity as it broadens into CRM.
• OpenAI – Reports surfaced of potential hardware plans, including glasses and a voice recorder. - Consumer Staples:
SCHL (12.0%) – Missed on FQ1 EPS/revenue; weaker Education Solutions cited, though some analysts noted seasonal effects. - Energy:
HESM (10.4%) – Downgraded to equal weight at Wells Fargo; cited lower growth outlook, less compelling for potential buyout. - Industrials/Consumer:
CART (8.6%) – Declined after Wedbush flagged AMZN’s push into same-day perishables as a threat.
Eco Data Releases | Monday September 22nd, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday September 22nd, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
