October 2, 2025
S&P futures +0.1% after equities finished mostly higher on Wednesday, reversing early weakness. Gains were led by pharma, apparel, retail, data centers, and China ADRs, while medtech, financials, and airlines lagged.
Overseas, Asian markets advanced with South Korea up more than 2.5% and Hong Kong gaining over 1.5%. Europe traded higher as well, up over 1%. In rates, Treasuries were slightly firmer with yields down ~1 bp, while the dollar index slipped 0.2%. Gold +0.2%, Bitcoin +1.1%, and WTI crude -0.8%.
On the macro front, today’s initial claims and factory orders reports will be delayed due to the government shutdown. Dallas Fed President Logan is scheduled to speak at 10:30 a.m. at an energy-focused conference. The week’s key data release will now be Friday’s ISM Services index, expected at 51.7 vs. 52.0 in August, with the BLS employment report delayed by the shutdown.
Corporate news:
- AAPL is reportedly pausing its Vision Pro overhaul to focus on developing smart glasses to rival META.
- OpenAI completed a share sale valuing the company at $500B.
- FICO announced a significant overhaul in how its credit scores will be delivered.
U.S. equities climbed for a fourth straight session (Dow +0.09% · S&P 500 +0.34% · Nasdaq +0.42% · Russell 2000 +0.24%), with the S&P 500 setting a fresh all-time high as investors leaned into a slightly more dovish rates narrative. The softer September ADP private payrolls print (-32K; weakest since Mar-23, with August revised down) reinforced the perception of a cooling labor market without signaling a hard landing. The ISM Manufacturing index edged up to 49.1 (from 48.7), essentially in line: new orders softened, employment improved modestly, and prices paid eased. Together with Tuesday’s JOLTS showing the weakest hiring rate since Jun-24, the data supported a “slower but still expanding” demand backdrop and a measured Fed path.
Politics remained an overhang as day one of the government shutdown produced no clear path to a resolution. While markets treated the closure as noise, the delay of key data (jobless claims and the BLS employment report) complicates near-term macro reads. Elsewhere, headlines around potential federal workforce layoffs and legal skirmishes (e.g., Supreme Court deferring a decision on removing Fed Governor Cook) added to the policy fog but didn’t derail risk appetite. Financial conditions were helped by firmer Treasuries (front-end yields -6–7 bp, curve steepening), a slightly weaker dollar (-0.1%), and resilient gold (+0.6%) even as WTI slipped another 0.9% to the lowest settle since Aug-19.
Sector Highlights
Healthcare (+3.01%) led on a continued pharma/biotech relief rally following PFE’s government pricing deal. Utilities (+0.93%) benefited from defensiveness and idiosyncratic catalysts; Technology (+0.71%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.69%) rode AI and turnaround stories (semicaps, hardware; NKE, TSLA). Laggards were Materials (-1.17%) and Financials (-0.92%), followed by Communication Services (-0.81%) and Industrials (-0.32%). Consumer Staples (-0.23%), Real Estate (-0.06%), and Energy (-0.04%) were little changed as crude slipped and data delays tempered conviction.
Healthcare (+3.01%)
- PFE: Pharma/biotech extended relief rally after U.S. pricing/tariff overhang eased.
- DOCS -3.4%: Downgraded at GS on growth concerns vs valuation.
Information Technology (+0.71%)
- INTC +7.1%: Reported early talks to add AMD as a foundry customer.
- ARM +6.3%: QCOM shifting flagship chips to ARM v9 architecture.
- VECO +8.7% / ACLS -3.0%: All-stock merger to form ~$4.4B EV combined company (close expected 1H’26).
- TWLO +2.6%: Initiated Overweight at WFC on infrastructure role for voice AI/RCS and solid FCF.
Consumer Discretionary (+0.69%)
- NKE +6.4%: Big FQ1 EPS beat; NA back to growth, running +20% y/y; light FQ2 guide; tariff headwind bigger.
- TSLA: Raised U.S. lease prices post EV tax credit expiration.
- DKNG -6.0%: Downgraded on rising competition from prediction markets.
- PTON -3.7%: New portfolio (Peloton IQ, Cross Training Series) didn’t offset sentiment headwinds.
Industrials (-0.32%)
- AYI +5.4%: FQ4 beat on margins; FY26 EPS guide midpoint ahead.
- GEV -1.4%: Downgraded at RBC; strong demand seen reflected in valuation.
- Transports/Housing-linked retail: Broad laggards alongside exchanges and asset managers.
Materials (-1.17%)
- LAC +23.3%: DOE took 5% stakes in company and Thacker Pass JV; first $435M draw on $2.26B loan approved.
- CTVA -9.1%: Plans tax-free separation into Crop Protection and Seeds (target H2’26).
- FCX: Reportedly nearing sale of additional PT Freeport Indonesia shares.
Communication Services (-0.81%)
- META: Notable decliner despite broader big-tech strength.
- RDDT -11.9%: Third-party data flagged DAU pressure tied to citation pattern shifts.
- TWLO: (See Tech) — infra tailwinds for voice AI/RCS.
Financials (-0.92%)
- Banks/IBs/Life insurers/Exchanges/AMs: Group underperformed amid softer labor data and curve dynamics.
Utilities (+0.93%)
- AES +16.8%: Reportedly near a $38B sale to BlackRock-owned GIP.
- RUN +6.1%: Upgraded to Buy at Jefferies on improving cash generation into late FY25.
Consumer Staples (-0.23%)
- CAG +5.4%: FQ1 organic decline better than feared; margins drove EPS beat; FY guide reiterated.
Real Estate (-0.06%)
- GEO +5.5%: Won a one-year ICE contract with a one-year option for electronic monitoring and case management services.
Energy (-0.04%)
- WTI -0.9%: Lowest since Aug-19 amid mixed export headlines.
- BRK.B / OXY: Berkshire reportedly near a ~$10B deal for OXY’s petrochemical unit
Eco Data Releases | Thursday October 2nd, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Thursday October 2nd, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
