December 12, 2025
S&P futures are off 0.2% in Friday morning trading after U.S. equities finished mostly higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 setting a new record despite continued tech weakness. Equal-weight S&P outperformed as financials, homebuilders, travel & leisure, and materials led gains, and the small-cap Russell 2000 remains the standout for the week. Asian markets rallied broadly overnight—Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Australia each rose more than 1%—while Europe is up ~0.7%. Treasuries are slightly weaker, dollar up 0.1%, gold up 1.2%, Bitcoin down 0.5%, and WTI crude unchanged.
A quieter tone prevails into week-end as the market continues to digest the less-hawkish-than-expected December FOMC meeting and a rotation theme that began even before Powell’s remarks amid a still-constructive macro backdrop and improving expectations for 2026. AI remains a central storyline, though AVGO lagged despite a beat-and-raise quarter—reflecting the elevated bar and increased dispersion across AI beneficiaries.
No economic data prints today, but a heavy slate of Fed speakers (Paulson, Hammack, Goolsbee) will provide post-FOMC context. Next week brings a major macro lineup including November NFP (Mon 16-Dec) and CPI (Wed 18-Dec), both likely to draw heightened focus after Powell highlighted potential payroll overstatement of ~60K jobs/month. Additional data includes Empire manufacturing, NAHB homebuilder sentiment, retail sales, existing home sales, and University of Michigan sentiment.
Corporate Updates:
- AVGO – FQ4 beat; Q1 guidance ahead; confirmed new Anthropic order and a fifth hyperscaler; some investor scrutiny over six-quarter AI backlog disclosure and lack of FY26 upside.
- COST – Q1 EPS slightly ahead of expectations.
- LULU – “Better-than-feared” results; sentiment boosted by CEO transition effective end-January.
- RH – Sales beat but EPS missed on tariffs and Paris opening costs; FY25 sales and profit guidance cut.
- NX – Strong beat with higher synergy expectations from the Tyman acquisition; stock jumped.
- WBD – NY Post reports PSKY considering a 10% increase to its hostile takeover bid.
U.S. equities finished mostly higher Thursday (Dow +1.34%, S&P 500 +0.21%, Nasdaq –0.25%, Russell 2000 +1.21%), closing near the day’s best levels. The Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 all set new record closes, with equal-weight S&P outperforming cap-weight as another rotation out of megacap tech gained traction. Weakness in select large tech—amplified by ORCL’s earnings miss and GOOGL’s decline following OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 launch—stood in contrast to renewed strength across cyclicals. The move extended Wednesday’s post-FOMC rally, where investors interpreted the meeting as less hawkish than feared, helping remove a key macro overhang heading into a seasonally strong stretch. Broader narratives supporting the rotation included fiscal tailwinds (OBBBA), stable consumer spending, benign credit, easing tariff pressure, and improving lending and capital-markets activity.
Treasuries were mixed with slight curve steepening, while the 30Y auction tailed marginally. The dollar fell 0.5%, gold rose 2.1%, Bitcoin slipped 1.1%, and WTI crude fell 1.5%.
Initial jobless claims rose to 236K (vs. 213K est.), though continuing claims fell sharply to 1.838M, their lowest since April. The September trade deficit narrowed to $52.8B, much better than expected. Markets now turn to a heavy macro slate next week, including NFP (16-Dec) and CPI (18-Dec)—both likely to attract heightened scrutiny following Powell’s comments on possible payroll overstatements of ~60K/month.
Sector Highlights
Sector leadership was decidedly cyclical, with Materials (+2.23%), Financials (+1.84%), Industrials (+1.06%), and Healthcare (+0.95%) leading the index as investors rotated out of megacap tech and into value/cyclicals. Defensive groups like Utilities (+0.74%) and Staples (+0.71%) also participated.
Lagging sectors were Communication Services (–1.01%), weighed down by GOOGL and media, along with Technology (–0.55%), Energy (–0.42%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.08%), reflecting the reversal out of AI-linked names and semiconductors.
Information Technology
- ORCL – Fiscal Q2 miss on revenue and operating income; FCF –$10B; RPO slightly above Street despite 440% surge; FY capex raised by $15B.
- ADBE – FQ4 slightly better; FY26 guide largely in line; narrative unchanged.
- CIEN – Beat and raised; strong cloud/service provider demand and datacenter exposure; FY26 revenue guide above consensus.
- GOOGL – Lower after OpenAI released GPT-5.2, marketed as superior for professional tasks.
- PL – Big earnings beat; analysts cited strong contract wins and AI-driven analytics demand.
Communication Services
- DIS – Announced $1B investment in OpenAI; will enable Disney IP integration into Sora.
- OXM – Shares fell sharply after Q4 guide came in 85% below Street; slower start to holiday season.
- RIVN – Down after announcing development of an in-house AI chip to replace NVDA in future models.
Healthcare
- LLY – Positive GLP-1 retatrutide trial data; high discontinuation rate noted.
- MTN – FQ1 earnings beat; season-pass trends improved slightly though still tracking lower.
Consumer Discretionary
- OXM – Weak Q4 guide attributed to softer holiday demand.
- PL (Planet Labs) – Strong government and commercial demand; raised FY outlook.
Industrials
- GEV – Strong move following FY28 guidance raise and expanded capital return plan.
Staples / Retail
- KO – COO Braun to succeed CEO Quincey in 2026.
- BCO – Announced $750M buyback.
Eco Data Releases | Friday December 12th, 2025
No releases today
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday December 12th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
