December 22, 2025
S&P futures +0.4% Monday premarket, near highs, following Friday’s tech- and AI-led rebound that also lifted high-beta and retail-favorite names. Asian markets were broadly higher overnight, while Europe traded lower. Treasuries are little changed with the long end ~1 bp higher; the dollar is off 0.1%. Gold +1.3%, bitcoin +2.0%, and WTI +1.9%.
A quiet, holiday-shortened week is expected with no news to materially alter the broader narrative. AI sentiment remains supportive—helped by reports of improving margins on paid OpenAI products—while last week’s noisy data failed to dent expectations for incremental easing alongside solid earnings growth. Markets continue to lean into favorable year-end seasonality, largely shrugging off geopolitics.
There’s no U.S. data today. Treasury kicks off $183B in auctions with $69B 2s today ($70B 5s Tuesday; $44B 7s Wednesday). Tuesday brings the first read of Q3 GDP, December consumer confidence, and Richmond Fed; jobless claims hit Wednesday in a shortened session. Cleveland Fed’s Hammack reiterated a base case for policy to remain steady until inflation and labor clarity improves.
Corporate highlights (light flow):
- OpenAI reportedly seeing improved compute margins on paid products.
- Weekend press praised AI leadership at Alphabet.
- A Delaware court restored Elon Musk’s 2018 pay package at Tesla.
- Netflix refinanced part of a $59B bridge loan tied to its WBD bid.
- Uber and Lyft are trialing Baidu robotaxis in London.
- Clearwater Analytics agreed to be acquired for $8.4B by Warburg Pincus/Permira.
- Coty announced leadership changes.
U.S. equities finished higher in relatively uneventful Friday trading (Dow +0.38%, S&P 500 +0.88%, Nasdaq +1.31%, Russell 2000 +0.86%), ending just off session highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest weekly gains, fully retracing losses from earlier in the week, helped by a rebound in AI, semis, and Big Tech. Options expiration lifted volumes, but price action remained orderly. Sentiment benefited from improving AI headlines (Micron follow-through, OpenAI funding chatter), progress toward resuming Nvidia H200 chip shipments to China, and growing focus on favorable year-end seasonality.
Rates moved higher alongside a hawkish global policy tilt, with Japan delivering a widely expected 25 bp hike; JGB yields pushed above 2%, spilling over into global bonds. In the U.S., Treasuries sold off modestly (yields +3–4 bp), while the dollar firmed on yen weakness. Commodities were mixed: WTI +0.9% on the day but down for the week; gold +0.5%; bitcoin +4%.
Economic data were benign: final December Michigan sentiment slipped slightly to 52.9, while 1-yr inflation expectations fell to 4.2% (fourth straight monthly decline) and 5-yr expectations held at 3.2%. Existing home sales met expectations at 4.13M SAAR. Fedspeak leaned mixed-to-dovish (labor support vs. no urgency), and next week’s holiday-shortened calendar is light aside from Treasury auctions (2s/5s/7s).
Sector Highlights
Leadership was narrow and tech-centric. Information Technology was the clear standout, powered by semis, AI infrastructure rebounds, and momentum/growth factors. Most other sectors posted gains but lagged the tape. Utilities and Consumer Staples underperformed, consistent with higher yields, while Energy was mixed despite oil’s late-week stabilization. Cyclicals showed selective strength (A&D, banks), but dispersion remained elevated amid mixed earnings/guidance.
Information Technology
- NVDA – U.S. government reportedly launched a formal review that could enable H200 chip shipments to China.
- CRWV – Joined the U.S. DOE’s Genesis Mission; Citi resumed at Buy citing strong AI infrastructure demand.
- ORCL – Benefited from reports tied to TikTok U.S. divestiture progress and approval to power a new Michigan data center with OpenAI.
- META – Reportedly developing new AI models (“Mango” image/video; “Avocado” text).
- BB – Results beat and FY guidance raised, but shares fell on concerns around QNX visibility and one-time items.
Communication Services
- TikTok (ByteDance) – Signed binding agreements to sell the U.S. entity; market focus on the Oracle-led JV structure.
- LYFT – Downgraded at Wedbush on autonomous-vehicle disruption risk.
Consumer Discretionary
- NKE – Fiscal Q2 beat offset by softer Q3 guidance; China weakness and Classics rationalization pressured shares.
- CCL – EPS beat; upbeat booking commentary with record occupancy and higher prices; reinstated dividend.
- KBH – Latest builder to disappoint on guidance, reinforcing downside risk to FY26 estimates.
- WGO – Beat and raised; favorable mix and higher volumes supported outlook.
Health Care
- BMRN / FOLD – BioMarin to acquire Amicus Therapeutics for $14.50/sh (~$4.8B), a ~33% premium; deal expected Q2’26.
Financials
- Money-center banks / IBs – Participated in the risk rebound; no major incremental catalysts.
Industrials
- HII – Selected by the U.S. Navy to design and build a future small-surface combatant ship.
- FDX – Fiscal Q2 beat with Express strength; freight softness and 2H cost pressures capped the FY guidance raise.
Energy
- Oil complex – WTI up on the day but down for the week; sentiment influenced by global rate moves and macro demand debates.
Materials
- EXP – Downgraded at Truist on expectations for wallboard volume/price pressure into 2026
Eco Data Releases | Monday December 22nd, 2025
No releases today
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday December 22nd, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
