March 12, 2026
S&P futures are down 0.3% Thursday morning, though off earlier lows, after a choppy and mostly weaker session Wednesday where gains in mega-cap tech helped cushion broader declines.
Global markets are softer. Asian equities fell overnight, and European markets are broadly lower. In rates, Treasuries are mixed with long-end yields up ~1 bp. The dollar index is up 0.1%, while gold (+0.2%) and silver (+1.9%) are higher. Bitcoin futures are down 0.9%, and WTI crude is rising 4.8%, despite the announcement of coordinated strategic petroleum reserve releases.
The Iran conflict and oil market volatility remain the dominant macro drivers. Iranian attacks on tanker traffic near Iraq’s Basra port are disrupting shipments, reinforcing supply concerns even after the IEA confirmed a coordinated 400M-barrel reserve release, including a 172M-barrel contribution from the U.S. beginning next week. While oil futures curves suggest prices could ease later in the year, near-term energy inflation is already influencing rate expectations. Goldman Sachs now expects the first Fed rate cut in September rather than June.
Financial stability concerns are also emerging in the private credit market, with Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater reportedly restricting fund redemptions, following earlier reports that JPMorgan reduced lending to some private credit vehicles and marked down collateral tied to software loans.
Today’s economic calendar includes weekly jobless claims, with consensus expecting stable initial claims and a decline in continuing claims to 1.839M from 1.868M. January housing starts are also due, with forecasts calling for a 5.3% month-over-month decline, alongside January international trade data.
Friday will bring a heavier slate of macro releases, including durable goods orders, January PCE inflation, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, January JOLTS job openings, and preliminary March University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
Treasury will also complete this week’s $119B debt issuance with a $22B 30-year bond auction today, following weaker demand at earlier 3-year and 10-year auctions, both of which tailed.
U.S. equities finished mostly lower Wednesday in volatile trading as geopolitical headlines surrounding the Iran conflict and energy markets continued to dominate sentiment. The Dow declined 0.61%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.08%, the Nasdaq edged up 0.08%, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.20%. Despite the modest losses, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain higher week-to-date, highlighting continued resilience in technology and growth segments.
Energy markets again drove the macro narrative. WTI crude rebounded 4.6% after Tuesday’s nearly 12% decline, reflecting persistent supply concerns even as policymakers discussed potential intervention. The G7 is reportedly considering a coordinated release of up to 400M barrels from strategic reserves, which would exceed the 182M-barrel release implemented following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Despite those discussions, markets remain focused on the risk of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where reports suggest Iran has deployed mines and continues to threaten energy shipments.
Geopolitical rhetoric remained hawkish. President Trump said the war could end “soon” because the U.S. is running out of strategic targets in Iran, though military officials expect at least two more weeks of operations. Iranian officials warned that the country retains the capability to block the Strait of Hormuz and suggested oil prices could reach $200 per barrel if attacks continue. Additional concerns surfaced after the FBI warned that Iran had previously explored the possibility of drone attacks targeting the U.S. West Coast.
In markets, the rebound in crude contributed to higher Treasury yields and tighter financial conditions. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.22% and the 30-year to 4.87%, with the curve steepening as long-end yields moved higher. The dollar index strengthened 0.4%, while gold declined 1.2% and silver fell 4.5% as investors pared safe-haven positioning following Tuesday’s surge.
Economic data were largely uneventful. February CPI matched expectations, with headline inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month and core CPI increasing 0.2%, both unchanged from January trends. Analysts largely viewed the report as stale, given the surge in energy prices tied to the Iran conflict that will likely influence inflation readings in the coming months.
The Treasury market also drew attention after another weak auction. The $39B 10-year note sale tailed by 0.7 basis points, following Tuesday’s poorly received 3-year auction. Markets now turn to Thursday’s $22B 30-year bond auction.
Other narratives influencing markets included renewed concerns around private credit, with reports that banks are marking down collateral and restricting lending to private credit funds, raising questions about liquidity across that segment.
Markets remained volatile as geopolitical developments in the Iran conflict continue to dominate investor sentiment. The rebound in oil prices and rising Treasury yields are tightening financial conditions, but equities have shown notable resilience, supported by strong AI-driven technology demand and a still-solid economic backdrop.
Investors will now focus on Thursday’s bond auction and upcoming macro releases, while continuing to watch developments in the Middle East for signs that the energy shock may either intensify or begin to ease.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance reflected the tug-of-war between energy-driven inflation concerns and continued strength in AI-related technology stocks.
- Outperformers: Energy (+2.48%) led the market on the rebound in oil prices. Technology (+0.35%) and Communication Services (+0.01%) also finished higher, supported by gains in semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and cloud computing.
- Underperformers: Consumer Staples (−1.29%), Real Estate (−1.12%), Financials (−0.83%), and Utilities (−0.81%) led declines. Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Healthcare also finished lower.
Within sectors, AI enablers, semiconductors, and high-beta stocks performed well, while private equity firms, investment banks, payments companies, airlines, trucking firms, homebuilders, and specialty chemical producers were among the weakest groups.
Information Technology
- ORCL (Oracle) +9.2% after strong earnings and raised FY27 revenue guidance driven by accelerating demand for AI infrastructure and cloud computing.
- NVDA (NVIDIA) announced a $2B investment in NBIS (Nebius Group) to support AI cloud infrastructure.
- SEDG (SolarEdge) reaffirmed guidance but announced the departure of its CFO.
Communication Services
- CXM (Sprinklr) +6.1% after earnings beat expectations and the company announced a $200M share repurchase program.
- UBER (Uber) +3.6% after announcing a partnership with Amazon’s Zoox to deploy robotaxis via the Uber app in Las Vegas and Los Angeles.
Consumer Discretionary
- PZZA (Papa John’s) +19.4% after reports that Irth Capital has offered roughly $47 per share to acquire the company.
- KMX (CarMax) rose following the announcement that activist investor Starboard Value had taken a stake and nominated two board members.
Consumer Staples
- CPB (Campbell’s Company) −7.1% after missing earnings expectations and cutting full-year guidance due to weak snack sales and weather-related supply chain disruptions.
Healthcare
- SYK (Stryker) −3.6% following reports of a global system outage linked to a suspected Iran-related cyberattack.
Financials / Private Markets
- ARES (Ares Management) −4.8% amid broader declines in private equity and private credit firms following reports that JPMorgan is tightening lending to private credit funds.
Industrials
- UNF (UniFirst) +6.6% after agreeing to be acquired by CTAS (Cintas) for $310 per share in a $5.5B deal.
Aerospace & Defense
- AVAV (AeroVironment) −6.3% after earnings missed expectations and the company lowered full-year guidance.
Eco Data Releases | Thursday March 12th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Thursday March 12th, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
