March16, 2026
S&P futures are up 0.4% Monday morning, as markets attempt to stabilize after U.S. equities posted a third consecutive weekly decline. Big tech ended mostly lower last week alongside weakness in software, homebuilders, private equity, transports, apparel, and food, while memory, energy, data centers, E&Cs, utilities, and pharma outperformed. Asian markets were mixed overnight with Hong Kong and South Korea up over 1%, while Japan, Shanghai, and Australia edged lower. European markets are down ~0.2%. Treasuries are firmer with yields down 2–3 bp and the curve steepening, the dollar index is down 0.1%, gold (-1.4%) and silver (-3.2%) are lower, bitcoin futures are up 2.9%, and WTI crude is up 1%.
The Iran conflict remains the dominant market driver, with continued concerns around energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials said the Trump administration will soon announce a coalition of countries to escort ships through the waterway, though details remain limited and reports suggest escorts may not begin until hostilities ease. Outside the Middle East, China’s January–February activity data came in stronger than expected, while the FT reported additional large retail-driven redemptions from private credit funds. Key events this week include NVIDIA’s GTC conference and the March FOMC meeting.
Today’s economic calendar includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, February industrial production, and the NAHB housing market index. Tuesday brings pending home sales, while February PPI will be released Wednesday morning ahead of the FOMC decision that afternoon. The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, while the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) may show higher inflation, weaker growth, and higher unemployment projections for 2026. Thursday will bring jobless claims, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, and January new home sales, while no major data is scheduled for Friday.
Company news:
- NVIDIA (NVDA) is reportedly set to unveil a new inference-focused chip at its GTC conference, designed to work alongside its Vera Rubin platform.
- Meta Platforms (META) is reportedly planning sweeping layoffs that could impact more than 20% of its workforce, according to Reuters.
- Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is reportedly in talks to be acquired by Fertitta Entertainment for $32 per share, while activist Carl Icahn has already offered $33 per share.
- Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN) reached an agreement with an activist investor that will see the company restart its CEO search process.
- Energy industry executives reportedly warned the White House that Middle East supply disruptions could continue to drive global market volatility.
- U.S. airlines urged Congress to resolve the partial government shutdown quickly, warning it could disrupt air travel.
- U.S. automakers reportedly asked the administration to block Chinese carmakers from entering the U.S. market.
U.S. equities finished lower Friday with the Dow down 0.26%, S&P 500 down 0.61%, Nasdaq down 0.93%, and Russell 2000 down 0.36%, as stocks reversed earlier gains and ended near session lows. The S&P 500 closed at its lowest level since November, with weakness concentrated in big tech, semiconductors, and software. The dollar index rose 0.7% to a new YTD high, while Treasury yields moved higher at the long end, steepening the curve with 10Y and 30Y yields up 3 bp. WTI crude climbed 3.3% to $98.65, reversing earlier losses as energy supply concerns persisted.
Geopolitics remained the dominant macro driver. The Iran conflict entered its second week with little visibility on a resolution, as the Pentagon reportedly deployed a Marine expeditionary unit of roughly 2,200 troops to the Middle East, while rhetoric from both Washington and Tehran remained hawkish. Reports also continued to highlight potential minelaying in the Strait of Hormuz, with military escorts for tankers still likely weeks away. The strait remains the central issue for global energy markets, as regional supply disruptions intensify and Saudi Arabia has reportedly cut oil output by roughly 20% amid the conflict. Analysts estimate global supply cuts could reach nearly 12M barrels per day next week, keeping crude near the $100 level and sustaining inflation concerns.
Macro data released Friday produced mixed signals around economic resilience. March University of Michigan consumer sentiment came in slightly ahead of consensus, though the report noted sentiment and inflation expectations deteriorated after the start of the Iran conflict. January JOLTS job openings rose to 6.946M, above expectations, while layoffs declined modestly. Core PCE rose 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y, the highest annual pace since March 2024 and above consensus, reinforcing concerns about sticky inflation. Personal income rose 0.4%, below expectations, while personal spending also increased 0.4%. Durable goods orders were flat, missing forecasts, and core capital goods shipments declined, suggesting softer business investment. The first revision of Q4 GDP lowered growth to 0.7% from 1.4%, with consumer spending revised lower.
Policy developments also remained in focus. The Treasury Department launched Section 301 investigations into forced-labor practices across 60 countries, while a federal judge blocked subpoenas directed at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though prosecutors indicated they would appeal. Markets are now looking ahead to next week’s March FOMC meeting, where the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady. However, higher oil prices and the latest inflation data have pushed market pricing down to roughly 20 bp of Fed rate cuts for 2026. Trade discussions will also remain in focus as Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer meet Chinese officials in Paris ahead of an anticipated Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing later this month.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance tilted defensive as geopolitical uncertainty and higher yields pressured growth and cyclical areas. Utilities (+0.94%) led the market, followed by Consumer Staples (+0.54%) and Energy (+0.41%), as investors rotated toward defensive sectors and energy stocks benefited from rising oil prices. Real Estate (+0.20%) and Financials (+0.05%) also held up relatively well, with strength in banks and insurance names. Healthcare (-0.28%) and Industrials (-0.39%) posted modest declines but outperformed the broader market. Consumer Discretionary (-0.65%), Communication Services (-0.98%), Materials (-1.04%), and Technology (-1.29%) were the biggest laggards, reflecting weakness in big tech, semiconductors, metals, and retail names.
Information Technology
- Adobe (ADBE) declined despite beating on earnings and revenue as analysts focused on softer ARR trends and user-acquisition headwinds; long-time CEO Shantanu Narayen announced plans to retire.
- Meta Platforms (META) fell following reports that its Avocado AI model underperformed internal tests and may be delayed until at least May; the company has reportedly considered temporarily licensing **Alphabet’s Gemini model.
- EverCommerce (EVCM) dropped sharply after guidance disappointed and payments revenue declined year-over-year.
Consumer Discretionary
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) fell sharply after missing EPS expectations and offering FY guidance below consensus despite stronger comparable sales.
- Lennar (LEN) gained modestly after reporting mixed results, with slightly weaker earnings but improved order trends.
- Klarna (KLAR) rallied after insider purchases by senior executives.
Healthcare
- Insulet (PODD) declined after issuing a voluntary correction on certain Omnipod 5 insulin pump lots due to a manufacturing issue.
- AdaptHealth (AHCO) rose after a major shareholder increased its stake.
Communication Services
- Meta Platforms (META) also weighed on the communication services sector following the AI product delay reports.
Consumer Discretionary / EV
- NIO (NIO) gained after HSBC upgraded the stock to buy, citing stronger confidence in its volume growth outlook and improving earnings trajectory.
Software / Enterprise Technology
- ServiceTitan (TTAN) declined despite beating earnings expectations, as its FY growth outlook was viewed as more conservative than investors anticipated.
Eco Data Releases | Monday March16th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday March16th, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
