March 25, 2026
S&P futures up 0.8% Wednesday morning following a mixed-to-weaker session Tuesday, where big tech and software lagged while small caps, semis, banks, industrial metals, and chemicals outperformed. Global markets are stronger with Asia broadly higher (Japan +~3%) and Europe up ~1.5%. Treasuries are rallying with front-end yields down 6–7 bp after Tuesday’s selloff. Dollar index down 0.2%. Gold (+3.7%) and silver (+5.4%) sharply higher. Bitcoin up 1.9%. Crude under pressure (WTI/Brent -~5%).
Risk sentiment improving on reports of a proposed one-month U.S.-Iran ceasefire and potential high-level talks as soon as Thursday. However, skepticism remains elevated given wide gaps in demands, Iran’s rejection of negotiations, continued control of the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing troop deployments. The key debate is whether markets are pricing a credible de-escalation path or simply rebounding after last weekend’s escalation-driven de-risking.
Today’s calendar is light with February import/export prices and a $70B 5-year Treasury auction following Tuesday’s weak 2-year sale. Focus shifts later this week to jobless claims, Michigan sentiment, and multiple Fed speakers.
Company highlights:
- Meta Platforms (META): Ordered to pay $375M in child safety case; also targeting $9T valuation via new incentive structure.
- Arm Holdings (ARM): Higher on CPU market entry and long-term growth outlook.
- Robinhood (HOOD): Announced $1.5B buyback program.
- Dow (DOW): Raising plastics prices more than previously indicated.
- On Holding (ONON): CEO stepping down; co-founders to become co-CEOs.
- Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN): Nearing ~$6B acquisition by Merck (MRK).
- KB Home (KBH): Missed Q1, cut FY guide; cited Middle East uncertainty impacting demand.
- Airbus (AIR): Beat and raised organic growth outlook.
- Worthington Enterprises (WOR): Q3 results ahead of expectations.
- Hub Group (HUBG): Expects to regain Nasdaq compliance within grace period.
- OpenAI: Discontinuing Sora video app.
- SpaceX: Reportedly preparing for $75B+ IPO filing.
U.S. equities finished mostly lower Tuesday, with the Dow (-0.18%), S&P 500 (-0.37%), and Nasdaq (-0.84%) all closing off intraday highs as markets struggled to sustain momentum following Monday’s rally. The backdrop remains dominated by mixed signals on Iran diplomacy, with intermittent optimism around negotiations offset by escalating military preparations and troop deployments. At the same time, macro pressures intensified as Treasury yields moved higher (2Y +8 bp to 3.93%) amid a weak 2-year auction and rising inflation signals from March flash PMIs, which pointed to slowing growth alongside accelerating price pressures. Final Q4 productivity disappointed while unit labor costs came in hotter than expected, reinforcing stagflation concerns. Commodities reflected the shifting macro tone, with crude sharply higher (WTI +4.8%) while gold was flat to slightly lower and the dollar index strengthened (+0.5%). Private credit risks also resurfaced, though spillover into broader markets remained contained.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance skewed toward inflation beneficiaries and defensives, with energy (+2.05%) and materials (+1.67%) leading on the back of higher oil and commodity prices. Utilities (+0.74%) and industrials (+0.57%) also outperformed, reflecting a mix of defensive rotation and continued bid for cyclicals tied to real assets and infrastructure. More neutral performance was seen in consumer staples (+0.08%), financials (+0.05%), and healthcare (+0.04%), suggesting a lack of strong conviction in traditional defensives outside of utilities. On the downside, communication services (-2.50%) and technology (-0.71%) lagged notably, pressured by weakness in mega-cap tech and software. Real estate (-0.77%) and consumer discretionary (-0.54%) also underperformed, highlighting sensitivity to rising yields and broader macro uncertainty.
Energy
- ConocoPhillips (COP): CEO flagged potential shift in oil market toward contango.
Materials
- No major standout single-stock catalysts; sector broadly supported by higher commodity prices.
Industrials
- Core & Main (CNM): Results largely in line but guidance disappointed on weaker volumes.
- United Airlines (UAL): CEO warned ticket prices may need to rise ~20% if fuel costs remain elevated.
Consumer Staples
- Smithfield Foods (SFD): Beat on earnings and raised dividend; FY outlook above consensus.
- Dollar General (DG): Announced CEO succession plan (JJ Fleeman to replace Todd Vasos).
Consumer Discretionary
- Li Auto (LI): Announced $1B share buyback authorization.
- Celsius (CELH): Pressured after Costco launched competing private-label energy drink.
Health Care
- Gilead Sciences (GILD): Acquiring Ouro Medicines (~$1.7B upfront + milestones).
- Solventum (SOLV): Initiated at sell, citing growth challenges.
Financials
- Apollo Global Management (APO): Facing elevated redemption requests (~11%) but maintaining 5% withdrawal cap.
- FS KKR Capital (FSK): Downgraded to junk at Moody’s on asset quality concerns.
- Jefferies (JEF): Gained on report of potential takeover interest from Japan’s SMFG.
- Janus Henderson (JHG): Takeover bid raised by activist-backed group.
Information Technology
- Netgear (NTGR): Surged on FCC move to restrict foreign-made routers.
- Concentrix (CNXC): Earnings missed and guidance disappointed.
- Apple (AAPL): Exploring ads within Maps platform.
Communication Services
- Alphabet (GOOGL) / Microsoft (MSFT): Among big tech laggards weighing on the sector.
- Circle Internet (CRCL): Dropped sharply on regulatory concerns tied to stablecoin legislation.
Real Estate
- No major company-specific catalysts; sector pressured by rising yields.
Utilities
- Sector outperformed defensively; no major single-name drivers.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday March 25th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday March 25th, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
