U.S. equity futures are rallying after the United States and Iran announced a pause in hostilities, sending oil prices sharply lower and easing near-term inflation pressure. At 5:50 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were up 1.02%, Dow futures were up 1.04%, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.68% and Russell 2000 futures were up 1.40%. Airlines, cruise operators and semiconductor stocks are leading the premarket advance, while Energy shares lag.
U.S. equities were mixed Friday. The S&P 500 gained 0.05% and the Dow rose 0.46%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.64% and the Russell 2000 declined about 0.3%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their second consecutive weekly losses as concerns about AI capital spending continued to pressure semiconductors and other high-multiple Technology shares.
Friday’s sector performance showed broad participation outside Technology. Real Estate led with a 2.36% gain, followed by Materials +1.44%, Consumer Staples +0.95%, Financials +0.86%, Health Care +0.64%, Communication Services +0.42%, Industrials +0.35%, Energy +0.25%, Utilities +0.18% and Consumer Discretionary +0.16%. Technology fell 0.88%, making it the only declining sector.
Market internals were mixed. Advancers led decliners by 1.56:1 on the NYSE, but Nasdaq breadth was negative at 1.29:1, reflecting continued weakness in semiconductor and AI-linked stocks. Exchange volume totaled 11.02B shares on the NYSE and 15.47B shares on the Nasdaq, excluding regional activity.
Treasury yields eased Friday, with the 2-year yield down 2 basis points to 4.33%, the 10-year down 2 basis points to 4.68% and the 30-year down 1 basis point to 5.16%. The de-escalation is extending that move this morning, with the 10-year yield near 4.64% as falling oil reduces expectations for near-term Fed tightening.
The DXY ended Friday at 101.47, while the euro traded at $1.1372, sterling at $1.3323 and the dollar at ¥163.85. The dollar is modestly weaker this morning, with the euro near $1.1395 and the dollar around ¥163.53 as markets reduce the probability of an immediate Fed increase.
September WTI crude fell 2.41% Friday to $89.97, while August gold rose 0.16% to $4,056.60. Oil is extending its retreat this morning: WTI is down roughly 5.7% near $84.12, while Brent is down more than 6% near $90.70. Gold is up about 0.9% near $4,090, supported by lower yields and a softer dollar. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited, however, leaving geopolitical risk elevated despite the pause in fighting.
Friday’s data showed stronger services activity but continued housing constraints. The preliminary July Services PMI rose to 53.6 from 51.2, lifting the composite index to an eight-month high, while Manufacturing PMI edged down to 53.8 from 53.9. New-home sales increased 1.6% in June to a 628,000 annualized pace, above expectations, although sales remained 5.6% below year-ago levels.
Monday’s principal economic release is June durable-goods orders at 8:30 a.m. ET. The broader week includes the Federal Reserve decision Wednesday, followed by second-quarter GDP, the PCE inflation report, personal income and spending, jobless claims and the Employment Cost Index. Markets currently assign about a one-in-three probability to a quarter-point Fed increase this week.
Company News by GICS Sector
Information Technology
- Marvell Technology (MRVL +4.2% premarket), Micron Technology (MU +3.6%) and Nvidia (NVDA +1.2%) are rebounding as lower oil and yields revive demand for AI and semiconductor exposure.
- Intel (INTC -7.9% Friday) fell despite issuing better-than-expected quarterly revenue and profit guidance, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.5%.
- Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) report this week, with investors focused on AI spending, cloud growth and the conversion of infrastructure investment into earnings and free cash flow.
Industrials
- United Airlines (UAL +3.7% premarket) and American Airlines (AAL +3.9%) are rising as the sharp decline in crude improves the fuel-cost outlook.
Consumer Discretionary
- Carnival (CCL +3.1% premarket) and Royal Caribbean (RCL +2.0%) are benefiting from lower fuel prices and reduced Middle East travel concerns.
- Amazon (AMZN) reports later this week, with cloud growth and AI-related capital spending likely to drive the reaction.
Energy
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY -3.6% premarket) and Exxon Mobil (XOM -3.0%) are declining as crude gives back a large portion of last week’s geopolitical premium.
- SLB (SLB +11.0% Friday) rallied after second-quarter profit exceeded expectations.
Real Estate
- Digital Realty Trust (DLR +11.0% Friday) surged after raising its full-year funds-from-operations forecast, helping Real Estate lead the sector rankings.
Materials
- International Paper (IP +11.2%) and Smurfit Westrock (SW +11.1%) led Friday’s Materials rally as investors rotated toward packaging and paper companies.
Communication Services
- Meta Platforms (META) reports this week. The key issues will be advertising growth, AI infrastructure spending and whether management follows Alphabet in raising its capital-expenditure forecast.
