U.S. equity futures are lower as the expiration of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire pushes oil and long-term Treasury yields higher. At 4:50 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were down 0.55%, Dow futures were down 0.15% and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.17%. The Russell 2000 also faces a less supportive setup after falling 0.4% Monday, with small caps exposed to renewed pressure from long-term borrowing costs. Semiconductor and mega-cap growth stocks are leading the premarket weakness as the 30-year Treasury yield reaches its highest level since 2007.
U.S. equities retreated Monday, with the S&P 500 down 0.52%, the Dow down 0.51%, the Nasdaq down 0.31% and the Russell 2000 down 0.36%. Rising crude and bond yields outweighed strength in selected semiconductor names and pulled the major indexes further from recent records. Trading was seasonally light: 14.74 billion shares changed hands across U.S. exchanges versus a 20-session average of 16.95 billion.
The rates backdrop became materially less supportive. Monday’s 2-year yield rose 1 basis point to 4.18%, the 10-year gained 4 basis points to 4.73% and the 30-year climbed 6 basis points to 5.31%. Selling has continued this morning, with the 10-year near 4.74% and the 30-year around 5.33%, its highest level in nearly 20 years. The combination of higher oil, fiscal concerns and heavy long-duration financing needs is steepening the Treasury curve even as traders have reduced the probability of a September Fed increase to roughly 37%.
The DXY ended Monday at 99.59, with the euro at $1.1580, sterling at $1.3543 and the dollar at ¥159.47. The dollar remains near recent lows as softer U.S. economic data reduces Fed-hike expectations, although geopolitical risk is providing some safe-haven support this morning.
September WTI crude rose 2.61% Monday to $84.55, while December gold gained 0.83% to $4,474. WTI is near $85 this morning and Brent has moved above $91, its highest level since late July, after Washington ruled out extending the expired ceasefire and Iran said it was shifting toward a “fully offensive” posture. Gold is pulling back, with spot prices down about 0.5% near $4,392, as higher bond yields outweigh some of the geopolitical safe-haven demand.
Monday’s macro data were mixed. The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 20.6 from 15.6, its strongest reading in roughly four years, indicating firm factory activity. Housing remained considerably weaker: the NAHB Housing Market Index edged up to 35 from 34, but remained below 40 for a 16th consecutive month as high mortgage rates, construction costs and affordability pressures continued to restrain builders.
Today’s calendar puts housing and industrial activity back in focus. July housing starts and building permits are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the Federal Reserve’s July industrial production and capacity-utilization report at 9:15 a.m. ET. Wednesday’s July FOMC minutes are the larger policy catalyst as investors look for more detail on the committee’s divided decision to hold rates steady.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance showed a clear inflation-sensitive rotation. Energy was the only advancing sector, gaining 0.87%. Technology and Industrials each slipped 0.16%, followed by Health Care -0.21%, Utilities -0.38% and Materials -0.50%. The weakest groups were Communication Services -1.47%, Consumer Staples -1.46%, Financials -1.04%, Consumer Discretionary -1.03% and Real Estate -0.82%. Breadth confirmed the weaker tape, with decliners leading 2.19:1 on the NYSE and 1.65:1 on the Nasdaq.
Consumer Discretionary
- Home Depot (HD) beat second-quarter sales expectations, reporting $47.86 billion versus $47.27 billion expected. Smaller repair and maintenance projects offset continued weakness in big-ticket remodeling, while the company maintained guidance for comparable sales between flat and +2% and adjusted EPS between flat and +4%.
- Home Depot’s results provide the first major read on the consumer this week; Target (TGT) reports Wednesday and Walmart (WMT) Thursday.
Information Technology
- Micron (MU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) were down between 2.6% and 4.8% premarket as rising yields triggered renewed selling in AI-related hardware.
- SanDisk (SNDK) and Western Digital (WDC) each fell more than 5% premarket, reversing part of Monday’s strong storage-sector rally.
- Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 1% premarket ahead of earnings next week, while investors continue to debate whether AI revenue growth can justify record infrastructure spending.
Communication Services
- Meta Platforms (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL) were lower premarket as rising long-term yields pressured mega-cap growth valuations. Alphabet had fallen 0.5% Monday even after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a larger position.
Industrials
- L3Harris Technologies (LHX -4.6% Monday) fell after Chairman and CEO Christopher Kubasik departed following a board investigation into conduct inconsistent with the company’s code. Sam Mehta was named CEO, and L3Harris reaffirmed its 2026 financial outlook.
Consumer Staples
- Constellation Brands (STZ -6.2% Monday) fell after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that it had exited its position, adding to the weakness in Consumer Staples.
