Equities corrected in March. While we expect some bottom-fishing activity, we see the main headwinds (crude supply shock, faltering cycle) still in place. A strong Q1 earnings season could change the narrative, but that’s a lot to expect given ongoing Middle East conflict and some signs of economic deceleration.
ETFSector.com April Outlook: S&P 500 Read More »
The Energy sector remains the locus of near-term inflows as a month of conflict hasn’t produced clear sight of an endgame between the US, Israel and Iran.
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Materials stocks pulled back for most of March but ended the month on a strong note and we expect buyers to accumulate mining concerns at near-term oversold levels.
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Industrials retraced gains in March, but the XLI sits at an oversold level within the context of a bullish intermediate-term price structure. We bet on stronger trends rather than weaker ones generally and our process favors Industrials in April.
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The Discretionary sector grades out the worst in our Elev8 Model framework. Inflation risk continues to pressure a consumer already dealing with high prices and a cooling labor market.
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Staples were showing signs of bullish reversal before index level turbulence escalated in March. We think the sector is positioned constructively for April.
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Healthcare remains a bifurcated sector with strength in drug stocks (Pharma, Biotech) and weakness everywhere else. We like other traditional low vol. sectors better for managing market level turbulence in the near-term.
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Financials firmed to end March, but we see continued inflationary pressures as an obstacle to credit markets and asset managers in the near-term.
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Software stocks are seeing some bottom-fishing, but the AI infrastructure trade is starting to lose momentum which puts the sector on uncertain footing entering April.
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Headwinds to both economic growth and Growth stocks remain in place. We think heavy Mega cap. exposure is likely to stunt the sector’s performance in April.
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