July 11, 2025
S&P futures are down 0.6% Friday morning following Thursday’s gains that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs. Most-shorted stocks extended gains as the momentum unwind continued, with year-to-date laggards like Tesla and Apple leading big tech. Cyclicals including travel, metals, apparel, builders, and banks also outperformed. Overnight, Asia was mixed (Hong Kong strong; Japan and South Korea weak), while Europe opened broadly lower (~1%). Treasuries sold off with yields up ~4 bp further out the curve. Dollar index rose 0.2%, gold gained 0.6%, Bitcoin futures surged 4%, and WTI crude was flat.
Macro Drivers:
- Tariffs remain in focus: Trump threatened a 35% tariff on Canada starting Aug 1, floated a 15–20% baseline tariff globally, and said the EU will receive a tariff letter today. Uncertainty continues as markets weigh threats vs. implementation likelihood.
- Fed remains under political pressure: White House reportedly redirecting criticism toward the Fed’s headquarters renovation amid broader scrutiny.
- Data ahead: No major releases today. Next week features June CPI (Tue), retail sales (Thu), and UMich sentiment (Fri). Multiple Fed speakers on deck across the week.
Company Highlights:
- LEVI: Q2 EPS beat on better sales, gross margin expansion, and expense control. FY25 guidance raised, now includes tariff impact/mitigation.
- WDFC: Fiscal Q3 EPS beat; FY25 guidance raised by 1% at midpoint.
- GOOGL: FT reported the company will significantly discount cloud services for the U.S. government.
- TSLA: Planning to expand robotaxi operations to Phoenix.
- BYD: Will sell its FanDuel stake to Flutter (FLUT) for $1.755B.
- LUCK: Acquiring 58 locations for $306M
U.S. equities ended higher Thursday (Dow +0.43%, S&P 500 +0.27%, Nasdaq +0.09%, Russell 2000 +0.48%), with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new record closes. Gains were driven by broad strength across cyclical sectors including airlines, machinery, industrial metals, financials, and consumer discretionary. AI optimism and a supportive technical backdrop (including sub-16 VIX and favorable July seasonality) also provided tailwinds. On the policy front, trade remained in focus after Trump confirmed a 50% copper tariff effective 1-Aug and imposed a similar levy on Brazil. However, markets continued to emphasize potential off-ramps over escalation. Economic data remained benign with jobless claims coming in below expectations, reinforcing labor market strength. Fedspeak revealed a divide among officials: Waller reiterated his case for rate cuts as soon as July, while Daly maintained her forecast for two cuts later in the year. The Treasury market wrapped up $119B in coupon issuance this week with a well-absorbed 30-year auction.
Sector Highlights:
Performance skewed toward cyclicals and economically sensitive areas, reflecting optimism about soft-landing scenarios and resilience in demand. Consumer Discretionary (+0.98%) led as Delta Air Lines raised guidance and Tesla rallied on robotaxi expansion headlines. Energy (+0.79%) held up despite a 2.6% drop in WTI, while Utilities (+0.78%) benefited from defensive rotation amid rate path uncertainty. Financials (+0.64%) were supported by earnings optimism and higher-for-longer rate talk. Meanwhile, Communication Services (-0.48%) and Tech (-0.12%) lagged, likely on profit-taking after recent strength and some cautious commentary around software and cloud names. Overall sector breadth remained constructive, with eight of 11 GICS sectors closing higher.
Information Technology
- AMD +4.2%: Upgraded to Buy at HSBC; sees AI upside from MI350 chip pricing.
- TSLA +4.7%: Plans to expand robotaxi services in San Francisco within 1–2 months.
- ADSK -6.9%: Exploring PTC acquisition; mixed analyst reactions.
- MBLY -3.8%: 50M share secondary priced at $16.50 by Intel.
- STX +1.8%: Initiated Buy at Goldman Sachs; cited leadership in HAMR drives.
- VRT -6.0%: Lower after AWS unveiled in-house server cooling solution.
Consumer Discretionary
- DAL +12.0%: Beat Q2 expectations, reinstated FY guidance above consensus.
- KLG +30.6%: Confirmed $3.1B Ferrero buyout at $23/share.
- PSNY +4.6%: Q2 sales +38% y/y.
- MCD +1.8%: Upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs; cited strong menu-driven traffic.
- HELE -22.7%: Q1 miss and Q2 guide lowered; tariff headwinds blamed.
- SMPL – guidance cut: Flagged ongoing pressure from tariffs.
Health Care
- MRNA +4.5%: FDA approved Spikevax for young children at high COVID risk.
- RARE -25.1%: Phase 3 trial failed interim threshold.
- MOH -3.6%: Downgraded at Morgan Stanley on insurance line pressure.
Industrials
- MP +50.6%: Announced DoD-backed rare earth magnet supply deal.
- HII +3.7%: Upgraded to Buy at TD Cowen; cited margin upside, DoD pipeline.
- AZZ +5.5%: Beat and raised FY26 EPS outlook.
- CRK -2.3%: Downgraded to Sell at UBS on valuation and gas risk.
Financials
- FAF -5.7%: Title insurers lower after FNMA expanded vendor pilot.
Consumer Staples
- CAG -4.4%: Missed Q4; warned of continued tariff-driven cost inflation.
- EL +6.3%: Reinstated Buy at BofA; cited margin upside and Asia recovery.
Communication Services
- GOOGL: OpenAI reportedly nearing launch of browser to compete with Chrome.
- WDAY -4.5%: Downgraded at Piper Sandler on AI hiring and demand outlook.
Utilities
- Broadly higher on modest yield reprieve and continued defensive rotation.
Materials
- FCX +3.6%: Rose after copper tariff confirmation from Trump
Eco Data Releases | Friday July 11th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday July 11th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
