July 30, 2025
S&P futures are up 0.1% in early trading after U.S. equities declined Tuesday, snapping a six-day winning streak for the S&P and Nasdaq. Cyclicals and high-beta names like retail favorites and meme stocks underperformed, while defensives and momentum stocks held up better. Industrials and healthcare led sector laggards. Treasuries held steady overnight after Tuesday’s strong rally, the largest yield drop since early June. Dollar index dipped 0.1%. Gold and Bitcoin are modestly higher. WTI crude is down 0.5%.
Markets are largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC decision and Powell’s press conference, as well as Mag 7 earnings (including MSFT and META) after the close. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting, with attention on potential dovish dissents from Waller and Bowman. Powell is not expected to hint strongly toward a September cut. Separately, the ADP payrolls report, Q2 GDP (first look), and pending home sales are on the calendar, along with the quarterly refunding announcement.
Despite tariff-related concerns, investors have largely focused on uncertainty removal and mitigation strategies discussed by corporates. Systematic buying and the resumption of corporate buybacks remain bullish flow drivers, though month-end rebalancing may add some pressure.
- V (+): Positive Q2 results supportive of resilient macro backdrop; some scrutiny on implied soft fiscal Q4 guidance.
- SBUX (+): U.S. comps beat; early signs of a turnaround cited.
- BKNG (−): Q2 beat, noted steady travel trends; Q3 guidance light due to tough comps.
- MDLZ (−): North America organic sales decline more than expected.
- EA (+): Q2 beat; reiterated FY26 guidance.
- STX (−): Pressured on weaker-than-expected guidance.
- PPG (=): Results in line, though high expectations limited reaction.
- FRSH (+): AI traction flagged as a key positive takeaway.
- TER (+): Beat with strong demand tied to AI applications.
- QRVO (+): Beat and guided above; highlighted content wins.
- OI (+): Beat and raised; strength in cost controls noted.
- CAR (=): Beat overall, though Americas business lagged.
- LSTR (=): Q2 EPS beat; truckload demand remains soft.
U.S. equities pulled back Tuesday (Dow -0.46%, S&P 500 -0.30%, Nasdaq -0.38%, Russell 2000 -0.61%), breaking a six-session winning streak for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Despite the retreat, downside was modest given a slate of high-profile earnings disappointments. Treasuries rallied sharply with 10- and 30-year yields down 9–10 bp. The U.S. Dollar extended gains (+0.3%), especially strong versus the euro. Gold rose 0.4%, Bitcoin fell 0.6%, and WTI crude surged 3.7% after Trump said he’s unconcerned about oil-market fallout from additional sanctions on Russia.
Economic data included a better-than-expected July consumer confidence print (97.2 vs. 95.5), though labor-market perceptions weakened. June JOLTS job openings came in roughly in line at 7.437M. Both FHFA and Case-Shiller home price indices fell m/m in May. The U.S. trade balance narrowed more than forecast, while wholesale inventories surprised to the upside. Treasury’s 7-year auction was very well received, stopping through by 2.6bp. The market now awaits the FOMC decision Wednesday (30-Jul), where the focus will be on Chair Powell’s tone regarding a potential September rate cut and whether Governors Waller and Bowman dissent.
Trade talks between the U.S. and China concluded in Stockholm with no major breakthroughs, but negotiators hinted at a likely 90-day extension of the current tariff truce. Separately, Trump indicated that a deal with India remains elusive and floated the possibility of 20–25% tariffs. Several companies flagged direct tariff impacts, including margin compression, price hikes, and inventory imbalances.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Outperformers: Real Estate (+1.70%), Utilities (+1.17%), Energy (+0.96%), Consumer Staples (+0.77%), Technology (−0.21%)
Underperformers: Industrials (−1.14%), Consumer Discretionary (−0.73%), Healthcare (−0.69%), Financials (−0.56%), Communication Services (−0.35%), Materials (−0.33%)
Industrials
- UPS (−10.6%): Missed EPS and operating profit; withheld FY guidance citing macro/tariff uncertainty.
- BA (flat): Beat estimates; reported stronger cash flow and a larger backlog.
- JCI (−10.6%): Guidance raise underwhelmed given elevated expectations.
- SWK (−7.2%): Revenue missed; cited an $800M tariff headwind and slower outdoor equipment sales.
- CR (+4.4%): Beat EPS, EBITDA, revenue; raised FY25 guidance.
- NSC (−3.0%): To be acquired by UNP for $85B in cash and stock.
Materials
- NUE (−2.7%): Guided Q3 earnings nominally lower; flagged margin headwinds in steel mills.
- GTLS (+15.8%): Agreed to $13.6B all-cash buyout by BKR.
- BKR (−1.7%): Acquirer of GTLS; some concern about debt load post-deal.
Healthcare
- UNH (−7.5%): New FY25 guide well below consensus; cited elevated care trends.
- MRK (−1.7%): Revenue slightly light; continued Gardasil drag, Keytruda better.
- NVO (−21.8%): Cut FY guidance on slower Wegovy/Ozempic uptake; named new CEO.
- EXEL (−16.8%): Revenue miss; will not advance zanzalintinib trial in SCC.
- SRPT (+14.2%): FDA lifted clinical hold on Elevidys; multiple analyst upgrades.
- INCY (+10.3%): Raised Jakafi and Opzelura guidance after beat.
Consumer Staples
- PG (+): Raised prices on 25% of domestic products to offset tariffs.
- LESL (−36.0%): Preannounced weak Q3; pulled FY25 guide due to weather impact.
- AWI (+9.4%): Beat on Q2 revenue and EBITDA; raised guidance.
Consumer Discretionary
- WHR (−13.4%): Missed EPS; cited excess Asian import inventory from rivals.
- RCL (−5.0%): Beat EPS but Q3 yield outlook underwhelmed.
- PII (+16.8%): Beat across metrics; market-share gains in Off Road division.
- SOFI (+6.6%): Broad-based strength; strong home-loan origination and raised FY guide.
Technology
- CDNS (+9.7%): Raised FY outlook; strength from AI and hardware despite China drag.
- CLS (+16.5%): Q2 beat and FY25 outlook raised; expects to pass through tariff costs.
- AMKR (+18.2%): Strong Q3 revenue guide; GM was a soft spot.
- PYPL (−8.7%): Beat EPS but guided Q3 EPS below Street; branded TPV decelerated.
- SPOT (−11.6%): Revenue and guidance missed; FX and payroll costs cited.
- CYBR (+13.5%): Reportedly near $20B buyout by PANW.
Financials
- HIG (+2.8%): Beat on EPS; reserve release and expense control key drivers.
- GL (+6.8%): DOJ investigation closed.
- VRSN (−9.3%): Declined following Berkshire secondary offering.
- NTRS: Announced $2.5B share repurchase authorization.
Communication Services
- META (−): Down with broader tech ahead of earnings.
- CYBR (+13.5%): M&A speculation supported gains.
- SPOT (−11.6%): Disappointed on topline and guidance despite solid sub growth.
Real Estate & Utilities
- No standout company-level movers reported, but both sectors outperformed on risk-off rotation.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday July 30th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday July 30th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
