August 11, 2025
S&P futures flat after last week’s rally, which was fueled by buy-the-dip momentum, dovish Fed signals, optimism on AI following PLTR’s beat/raise, Apple’s chip tariff exemption, and strong Q2 earnings. Leadership came from big tech, semis, builders, industrial materials, managed care, and airlines. Asia mostly higher overnight; Europe down ~0.2%. Treasuries firmer (yields -2 bps), dollar +0.1%, gold -2.1% on reports of a White House EO to address tariff fears, Bitcoin +2.7%, WTI -0.1%.
Markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of July CPI Tuesday (headline +0.2% m/m, +2.8% y/y; core +0.3% m/m, +3.0% y/y expected), with debate over tariff impacts on goods prices. September rate-cut odds remain above 90%, with ~60 bp of easing expected this year; Fed’s Bowman now sees 75 bp of cuts. On trade, Trump pressed China to buy more soybeans ahead of the Aug. 12 tariff-truce deadline (extension likely), and Treasury Sec. Bessent said remaining trade deals could be wrapped by late October. Geopolitical headlines focus on Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska amid Ukraine and European pushback on Russia’s ceasefire plan.
No U.S. economic data today. Macro highlights later this week include PPI (Thu), retail sales, and Michigan sentiment (Fri).
Corporate Updates
- NVDA, AMD – Reportedly agreed to hand over 15% of China AI-chip sales revenue to U.S. government for export licenses.
- INTC – CEO visiting White House after Trump’s call for his resignation.
- META – Acquired AI audio startup WaveForms.
- TGT – COO Fiddelke seen as CEO candidate; some investors prefer outsider.
- FNMA, FMCC – Ackman proposes merging the two GSEs.
- AVTR – Up on report Engine Capital took 3% stake, pushing for sale/strategic review.
- TGNA – Jumped on report NXST in advanced takeover talks.
- AI – Down sharply on negative preannouncement.
U.S. equities ended higher in quiet Friday trading, with the Dow up 0.47%, S&P 500 up 0.78%, Nasdaq up 0.98% (setting a new record), and Russell 2000 up 0.17%. Gains capped a strong week, with the S&P 500 up more than 2% and the Nasdaq nearly 4%. Treasuries sold off, yields rose 3–5 bps across the curve, and the dollar index slipped 0.1%. Gold gained 1.1% before pulling back late after the White House clarified that Swiss gold bars would not face tariffs. Bitcoin futures fell 1.1%, and WTI crude was flat but posted a steep weekly loss.
Macro drivers were limited. July CPI on Tuesday is the next major data release, with consensus at +0.2% m/m, +2.8% y/y for headline and +0.3% m/m, +3.0% y/y for core. Goods prices will be closely watched for tariff impacts. PPI is due Thursday, followed by retail sales and University of Michigan sentiment on Friday. The U.S.–China tariff truce expires Aug. 12, with a 90-day extension expected. Fed commentary remained in focus, with St. Louis Fed President Musalem saying tariff inflation effects will likely fade, and late-session reports suggesting Trump is expanding his list of potential Fed chair nominees beyond Governor Waller.
Sector Level
Technology (+1.22%) and Communication Services (+1.21%) led Friday’s gains, buoyed by strength in software, AI, and online travel stocks. Financials (+0.91%) outperformed on GSE IPO speculation, while Healthcare (+0.90%) advanced on positive earnings from managed care, biotech, and medical tech. Energy (+0.65%) was modestly higher, while Materials (+0.54%) benefited from select metals producers. Consumer Staples (+0.36%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.19%) lagged the broader market as tariff and margin pressures weighed on select names. Real Estate (-0.82%) and Utilities (-0.45%) underperformed in a rising yield environment, and Industrials (+0.01%) were flat as transport and A&D weakness offset strength in niche industrials.
Information Technology
- LZ +31.0% – Revenue beat, FY guidance raised; partnerships with OpenAI and Perplexity.
- SOUN +26.2% – Beat across metrics, raised FY25 revenue guidance; upgraded at Northland Capital.
- FROG +12.5% – Beat on EPS/revenue, Q3 guidance ahead; strength in security adoption.
- TTD -38.6% – Beat, in-line guide; CFO transition and growth deceleration concerns.
- MCHP -6.6% – Beat and guided above; backlog strength but recovery pace questioned.
- GDDY -11.3% – Mixed Q2; FY revenue guidance raised, but bookings growth moderated.
Communication Services
- TRIP +11.7% – EPS/FCF beat, margin improvement at Viator; Q3 revenue growth +4–6% guided.
- EXPE +4.1% – Beat and raised FY guide; strong B2B/advertising performance.
- CART +3.7% – Beat on EPS/revenue; GTV growth +16.8% y/y, Q3 guide ahead.
- TEM +3.6% – Beat across metrics, raised FY revenue guidance; strong genomics/oncology growth.
- PINS -10.3% – Beat; in-line guide; high expectations limited upside.
- YELP -9.2% – Beat; paying locations/ad clicks fell; trimmed FY outlook.
Financials
- FNMA +18.9% – Gained on reports Trump administration preparing ~$30B IPO of GSEs.
Healthcare
- DOCS +13.7% – Beat and raised; strong AI product momentum.
- GILD +8.3% – Beat and raised; HIV portfolio strength, oncology progress.
- NTRA +7.7% – Beat on revenue; strong Signatera volumes, raised guidance.
Consumer Staples
- MNST +6.4% – Beat across metrics; strong July sales growth, modest expected tariff impact.
- WEN +1.3% – EPS beat; U.S. sales weakness led to guidance cut.
Consumer Discretionary
- UAA -18.1% – Missed; guided lower on potential tariff demand impact.
- SG -23.1% – Missed; FY guide down on macro headwinds.
- TXRH -6.6% – Missed on margins despite comp growth.
Industrials
- MP +4.6% – Beat; record rare earth oxide production.
- GT -18.5% – Missed on earnings; cited macro/trade disruptions.
Materials
- No notable earnings beats or misses outside of MP in industrials/materials crossover.
Energy
- No significant single-stock movers noted.
Eco Data Releases | Monday August 11th, 2025
No major releases today
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday August 11th, 2025
No constituents reporting today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
