August 13, 2025
S&P futures up 0.15% after Tuesday’s broad rally that saw all major indexes gain over 1%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting new record highs. Small caps led, posting their best day since May, while the Mag 7 also hit new highs, led by META. Outperformers included most-shorted names, semis, builders, airlines, apparel, industrial metals, and investment banks. Asia closed higher (Hong Kong +2.5%, Japan +1%+); Europe up ~0.8%. Treasuries firmer (yields -3–4 bps), dollar -0.4% (off nearly 1% for the week), gold +0.4%, Bitcoin -0.2%, WTI crude -0.4%.
Momentum remains supported by expectations for near-term Fed easing, strong earnings and revisions, the AI growth theme, tariff carve-outs, active buybacks, fiscal clarity, and deregulation efforts. Bearish points focus on labor market softness, delayed tariff inflation impact, high valuations, extended systematic positioning, and Treasury market headwinds.
No major economic data today; Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee, and Bostic speak. Thursday brings PPI and weekly claims, with Friday featuring July retail sales (consensus +0.5% headline, +0.4% core), Michigan sentiment, import prices, Empire State manufacturing, industrial production, and business inventories.
Corporate Highlights
- NVDA – Reports of weak demand in China for H20 chip.
- CRWV – Fell despite Q2 beat; weaker margin guidance on higher costs, elevated borrowing expenses.
- CAVA – Dropped after Q2 comps missed by ~400 bps and FY comp guide cut, though July improved.
- LITE – Beat and raised on strong optical transceiver and data center laser demand.
- HRB – Q4 revenue and EBITDA light.
- HGV – Lower after Apollo share sale.
- SPNS – To be acquired by Advent for $2.5B.
U.S. equities rallied Tuesday, with the Dow up 1.10%, S&P 500 up 1.13%, Nasdaq up 1.39%, and Russell 2000 surging 2.99% for its best day since May. The S&P 500 closed at a record high above 6,400, led by big tech, semiconductors, small caps, and cyclicals. Treasuries finished mixed with a steepening curve and 2Y yields down 3 bps. The dollar index fell 0.5%, gold slipped 0.2%, Bitcoin futures rose 0.7%, and WTI crude dropped 1.2%.
Risk sentiment was lifted by a July CPI print that met expectations, keeping the Fed on track for a September cut (probability rising to ~93%). Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, in line with forecasts but the fastest pace in six months; y/y core CPI edged up to 3.1%, slightly above consensus. Goods inflation in tariff-linked categories was mixed, while core services and supercore readings came in hotter. Market chatter also focused on potential “pain trades” higher given increased hedge fund shorting, low volatility, and the reopening of corporate buyback windows. Elsewhere, Trump signed a 90-day extension of the U.S.–China tariff truce, and Powell succession headlines remained centered on Governor Waller as the market favorite. Geopolitical developments, including the upcoming Trump–Putin summit, remained largely ignored by markets.
Sector Highlights
Communication Services (+1.79%) and Technology (+1.41%) led gains on big tech strength, AI-related optimism, and selective upgrades. Financials (+1.23%) benefited from investment bank and credit card gains, while Materials (+1.14%) rallied on lithium news. Industrials (+1.09%) rose on transport and capital goods strength, and Consumer Discretionary (+0.87%) gained on retail and apparel M&A speculation. Healthcare (+0.74%) lagged broader gains on Cardinal Health’s miss, while Energy (+0.49%) was weighed down by FLNC’s drop. Utilities (+0.44%), Real Estate (+0.22%), and Consumer Staples (+0.17%) underperformed as defensive flows faded in the risk-on session.
Information Technology
- NVDA – Beijing reportedly urged Chinese firms to avoid H20 AI chips; Trump may allow downgraded Blackwell chip sales to China.
- TXN +5% – Boosted by reports of additional price hikes; positive management tone at recent conference.
- INTC +5.6% – Rose after Trump called White House meeting with CEO Lip-Bu Tan “very interesting.”
- PANW +4.3% – Upgraded to Overweight at Piper Sandler on platformization progress and FCF leverage potential.
Communication Services
- META – Led big tech rally; Threads now over 400M MAUs.
- GOOGL – Perplexity made unsolicited $34.5B offer for Chrome; courts to decide on potential divestiture.
Consumer Staples
- HBI +28% – Spiked on FT report Gildan Activewear near $5B acquisition deal, including debt.
Consumer Discretionary
- ONON +9% – Beat on Q2 sales, GM, EPS; raised FY guidance on share gains and brand momentum.
- KSS +5.1% – Upgraded to Hold at Gordon Haskett.
- SBUX +1.8% – Upgraded to Outperform at Baird on turnaround visibility.
Financials
- FFBC – To acquire BFIN in $142M all-stock deal.
Healthcare
- CAH -7.2% – Missed on revenue; Pharma segment soft; announced $1.9B acquisition of Solaris Health.
- HIMS -4% – CEO sold 660K shares.
Industrials
- MRCY +27% – Beat across all metrics; FY26 guidance viewed as conservative; operational improvement noted.
Materials
- ALB – Lithium peers higher on news CATL halted production at key Chinese mine (permit expiry).
- CE -13.1% – Beat Q2 estimates but guided Q3 EPS well below Street; noted broad demand softness and persistent Acetyls weakness.
Energy
- FLNC -19.4% – Missed revenue; reaffirmed low-end FY25 guidance; cited slower U.S. manufacturing ramp.
Industrials/Utilities Crossover
- OKLO +9.2% – Missed EPS but highlighted regulatory and policy momentum for Aurora-INL nuclear project.
Aerospace & Defense / Space
- ASTS +8.3% – Missed on Q2 results but maintained FY guidance; fully funded for satellite deployment.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday August 13th, 2025
No releases today
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday August 13th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
