August 19, 2025
S&P futures are flat Tuesday after US equities ended little changed Monday, with META weaker while TSLA and NVDA outperformed. Industrials were mixed as metals, parcels, and casual diners lagged, while small caps, managed care, airlines, semicap equipment, and machinery outperformed. Asia traded mostly lower overnight, while Europe gained 0.6%. Treasuries were steady to slightly firmer, the dollar index slipped 0.1%, gold rose 0.1%, Bitcoin fell 0.9%, and WTI crude declined 1.1% following a more constructive tone from Trump–Zelensky–EU talks.
Markets remain in wait mode ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday, with September cut odds at 83% and ~53 bp of easing priced for 2025. Retail earnings are also in focus this week for insight on consumer sentiment, tariffs, and spending trends. Today brings July housing starts and permits, while Fed Gov. Bowman speaks this afternoon. Looking ahead, Waller and Bostic speak Wednesday alongside FOMC minutes, followed by jobless claims, flash PMIs, and existing home sales Thursday.
Company Updates
- HD: Q2 results slightly below expectations; FY guidance reaffirmed.
- NVDA: Reportedly developing a new China-focused AI chip.
- AAPL: Expanding iPhone production in India.
- INTC: Rose after SoftBank purchased $2B in shares.
- SBUX: Will raise salaried worker pay by 2% this year.
- PANW: Strong post-earnings move on accelerating RPO, ARR, and margin expansion.
- MDT: Making board changes following Elliott investment.
- FN: Beat and guided above; noted 1.6T ramp but expects Datacom weakness.
- CRM: To acquire AI automation firm Regrello.
- SNEX: Announced 2.25M share repurchase authorization.
- ALTS: Gained after Point72 disclosed a 4% stake.
- TGNA: Higher after Sinclair offered to merge its TV broadcast business.
- CXW: Announced CEO succession.
- DGII: Acquiring Jolt Software for $145M in cash
US equities were little changed on Monday, with the Dow down 0.08%, S&P 500 off 0.01%, Nasdaq up 0.03%, and Russell 2000 higher by 0.35%. The quiet session followed last week’s gains and record levels, with investors awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Consensus is that Powell will adopt a slightly more dovish tilt, though not provide an explicit signal for September. Fed funds futures currently price an ~85% probability of a 25 bp September cut and ~50 bp of easing in total this year. On the macro front, the August NAHB homebuilder sentiment index slipped to 32 from 33, missing consensus for a modest uptick. Treasuries were slightly weaker with yields up 1–2 bp, the dollar index gained 0.3%, gold fell 0.1%, Bitcoin dropped 0.6%, and WTI crude rose 1.2% after last week’s decline. Geopolitics remained in focus following the Trump-Putin summit, but developments were limited, with White House meetings between Trump, Zelensky, and European leaders producing no major updates. On trade, Trump reiterated steel and chip tariff announcements are forthcoming, while India remains in the spotlight over Russian oil purchases.
Sector Performance
Sector leadership was mixed. Industrials (+0.40%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.38%), Technology (+0.13%), Financials (+0.11%), and Consumer Staples (+0.08%) outperformed, supported by strength in machinery, semicap equipment, airlines, discounters, and money-center banks. Real Estate (-0.95%), Communication Services (-0.71%), Materials (-0.58%), Energy (-0.57%), Utilities (-0.49%), and Healthcare (-0.23%) lagged, with particular weakness in industrial metals, energy, housing-related retail, and casual dining.
Company News by Sector
Information Technology
- INTC (-3.7%): Reports that the Trump administration is in talks to take a ~10% stake in the company.
- NVDA: Gained after last week snapped its 11-week winning streak.
- WULF (+4.6%): Announced a $400M offering; Google to provide an additional $1.4B backstop and raised its stake in the company to 14%.
Healthcare
- NVO (+3.7%): Received FDA clearance for Wegovy in liver disease; partnered with GDRX on distribution.
- GDRX (+37.3%): Shares surged on partnership with Novo Nordisk to offer Wegovy and Ozempic at $499/month, half the list price.
- HIMS (-2.0%): Fell after Novo Nordisk’s new distribution deal with GoodRx; recall the company ended its prior partnership with Hims in June.
- CVS (+2.3%): Upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, citing consistent execution and improving healthcare benefits segment.
Communication Services
- META: Declined after reports it will restructure AI efforts for the fourth time in six months, splitting superintelligence labs into four groups.
- GOOGL: Increased its backstop in TeraWulf to $3.2B and raised its stake to 14%.
Consumer Discretionary
- TSLA: Announced cuts to UK leasing prices by as much as 40%.
- DAY (+26%): Jumped on reports Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire the company; deal could be announced soon.
- SHCO (+14.9%): Confirmed agreement to be taken private at $9/share by an investor group.
- TGT (+1.9%): Added to Evercore ISI’s Tactical Outperform list ahead of earnings.
- DUOL (+12.9%): Upgraded at KeyBanc and initiated with Buy at Citi, with analysts citing product quality, viral marketing, and pricing power.
- TTAN (+3.4%): Upgraded to Buy at Loop Capital, citing positive customer surveys and a strong pipeline outlook.
Industrials
- NXT (+11.8%): Upgraded to Buy at Guggenheim; IRS guidance seen as supportive for tracker companies.
- RUN (+11.4%): Upgraded to Outperform at RBC following Treasury guidance clarification.
- EPAM (+4.4%): Upgraded to Buy at TD Cowen; highlighted improving growth trajectory and profitability trough.
Energy
- AR (-5.7%): Downgraded to Neutral at Roth Capital; analysts expect natural gas oversupply to pressure pricing through 2026.
- NOG (-2.1%): Downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; cited shut-ins and lower Bakken completions, pressuring volumes into 2026.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday August 19th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday August 19th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
