September 8, 2025
S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% after Friday’s decline, which still left the S&P 500 up for the fourth time in five weeks and the Nasdaq with its first gain in three. Asia rallied overnight (Japan +1.5% on PM Ishiba’s resignation and GDP revision), while Europe is up ~0.4%. Treasuries are firmer (yields -1–2 bp). Dollar index -0.1%, gold flat, Bitcoin +1%, WTI +2% despite OPEC+ agreeing to boost output.
Markets are largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of this week’s inflation data (PPI Wed, CPI Thu). Bullish narratives center on Fed easing, earnings revisions, consumer resilience, AI capex, buybacks, and strong retail flows. Bearish themes include sticky inflation, tariff uncertainty, seasonal headwinds, stretched positioning, supply pressures, and political risk. Fed independence remains in focus as Trump allies criticize policy overreach. Trade tensions linger with expanded steel/aluminum tariffs threatening the U.S.–EU truce and China signaling no concessions. AI scrutiny also rising after reports of OpenAI’s heavy cash burn.
This week’s calendar features NY Fed inflation expectations today, NFIB optimism Tuesday, payroll benchmark revisions, and a heavy Treasury issuance slate ($58B 3Y Tue, $39B 10Y Wed, $22B 30Y Thu). Michigan sentiment wraps up the week Friday. Fed officials are in blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC, with markets fully pricing a 25 bp September cut.
Company News
- Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE): Headline earnings this week.
- Spotify (SPOT): Highlighted for challenging Apple’s App Store dominance.
- OpenAI: Reports of rising cash burn.
- AppLovin (APP), Robinhood (HOOD), EMCOR (EME): To join the S&P 500.
- Paramount (PSKY): Exploring revamps for MTV, Comedy Central, Nickelodeon.
- FHFA: Rehiring staff as it prepares for $30B FNMA/FMCC listings.
- Gap (GPS): CEO said company plans to expand the Gap chain in U.S. and overseas.
U.S. equities finished mostly lower Friday (Dow -0.48% | S&P 500 -0.32% | Nasdaq -0.03% | Russell 2000 +0.48%), though off their intraday lows. Despite the pullback, the S&P 500 notched its fourth gain in five weeks and the Nasdaq secured its first weekly advance in three. Markets initially rallied after a weaker-than-expected August jobs report, which pushed Treasury yields sharply lower before retracing part of the move. The 2Y yield hit its lowest level since April, while the long end closed 5–10 bp lower. Dollar index slipped 0.6%, gold rose 1.3% to another record high, Bitcoin gained 1.4%, and WTI crude fell 2.5% amid reports Saudi Arabia may accelerate production increases at this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.
The August payrolls report showed just +22K jobs added vs. +77K expected, with June revised down to a 13K contraction, the weakest since December 2020. The unemployment rate held at 4.3% and wages rose +0.3% m/m, in line with expectations. While the report reinforced expectations for Fed easing, economists debated the degree of weakness. Some cited resilient household survey data, wage stability, and immigration dynamics as reasons the print may not signal imminent recession risk. Fed funds futures now price ~70 bp of cuts this year, with ~14% odds of a 50 bp cut in September. Comments from Fed officials reflected divisions: Hammack reiterated no case for near-term cuts, while Goolsbee acknowledged job growth is “below breakeven” but said he remains undecided on September policy. Looking ahead, next week brings labor benchmark revisions (Tue), August PPI (Wed), and CPI (Thu).
Sector Highlights
Sector performance was mixed. Real estate (+0.98%), communication services (+0.55%), and materials (+0.53%) led gains, supported by falling yields, positive AI sentiment, and stronger metals pricing. Healthcare (+0.32%) and consumer staples (+0.16%) also ended higher. In contrast, energy (-2.06%) and financials (-1.84%) were the weakest, weighed by oil volatility and softer bank/IB performance. Industrials (-0.40%) and utilities (-0.34%) also lagged. Technology (-0.21%) finished lower as semis diverged — Broadcom strength offset by AMD and NVIDIA weakness. Consumer discretionary (-0.12%) was little changed, with gains in select retailers offset by steep declines in Lululemon.
Information Technology (XLK, -0.21%)
- Broadcom (AVGO +9.4%): Strong Q3 beat, guided higher; announced ~$10B XPU orders from OpenAI; guided ~60% AI semiconductor revenue growth in 2026.
- NVIDIA (NVDA -2.7%) & AMD (AMD -6.6%): Weighed down by OpenAI’s Broadcom partnership for custom AI chips.
- Guidewire (GWRE +20.2%): Q4 beat with strong cloud deal momentum; Liberty Mutual win called “most strategic deal” in company history.
- Samsara (IOT +17.4%): Q2 beat with ARR growth reaccelerating; raised FY guidance.
- ServiceTitan (TTAN +13.6%): Q2 revenue and guidance ahead; highlighted AI and automation tailwinds.
- Braze (BRZE +13.6%): Q2 beat and raised full-year outlook; strong pipeline and win rates.
- DocuSign (DOCU +4.8%): Beat and raised; appointed James Beer as board chair.
- Sandisk (SNDK +9.7%): Rallied on reports of 10% NAND price hikes and large orders.
- GitLab (GTLB -7.4%): Q2 beat but light guidance; CFO departure added pressure.
- C3.ai (AI -7.3%): Missed EPS, lowered guidance, withdrew FY outlook; CEO transition a drag.
- ASML (ASML +3.8%): Upgraded at UBS, cited long-term EPS growth through 2030.
Communication Services (XLC, +0.55%)
- Tesla (TSLA +3.6%): Outlined new CEO compensation package for Musk tied to long-term operational milestones.
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Pressured by EU’s nearly $3B antitrust fine.
- TKO Group (TKO +2.1%): Initiated Outperform at Baird, citing strategic positioning and sports partnerships.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY, -0.12%)
- Lululemon (LULU -18.6%): Missed revenue, cut FY outlook; flagged tariff headwinds, weaker U.S. demand, and competitive pressures.
- American Eagle (AEO): Extended gains from strong earnings earlier in the week.
- Gap (GPS): Higher on beauty/accessories expansion plans.
- Shoe Carnival (SCVL): Continued momentum post-earnings.
- Cruise lines/casinos: Among broader underperformers.
Consumer Staples (XLP, +0.16%)
- Kenvue (KVUE -9.4%): Fell after reports RFK Jr. will link Tylenol to autism in upcoming remarks.
Healthcare (XLV, +0.32%)
- Phreesia (PHR -9.9%): Beat on Q2 but reaffirmed cautious revenue guide; announced AccessOne acquisition.
- Elevance (ELV -4.2%): Reaffirmed below-consensus FY EPS guidance.
Financials (XLF, -1.84%)
- Bill Holdings (BILL +10.4%): Rallied after Starboard disclosed 8.5% stake, with plans for board nominations.
- Banks, brokers, and payments: Broadly weaker on yield curve dynamics and rate uncertainty.
Energy (XLE, -2.06%)
- ConocoPhillips (COP): Continued weakness amid restructuring headlines and oil price declines.
- Sector broadly down on reports Saudi Arabia may push OPEC+ for faster output increases.
Materials (XLB, +0.53%)
- Albemarle (ALB +2.9%): Supported after China announced new growth targets for its lithium battery industry.
Real Estate (XLRE, +0.98%)
- Benefited from falling Treasury yields; REITs broadly stronger.
Industrials (XLI, -0.40%)
- Fastenal (FAST -4.5%): August sales slowed, particularly in manufacturing end-markets.
- Copart (CPRT -2.8%): Reported better EPS but noted volume declines in insurance-related sales.
Eco Data Releases | Monday September 8th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday September 8th, 2025
No Constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
