September 12, 2025
S&P futures down 0.1% in quiet Friday premarket after Thursday’s gains pushed the S&P and Nasdaq to fresh ATHs. Week shaping up for moderate index gains. European markets softer, Asia mixed. Treasuries steady to weaker at the short end after a big flattening move this week. Dollar +0.2%, gold +0.2%, Bitcoin +0.4%, WTI crude +0.4% after yesterday’s 2% drop.
Markets remain focused on Fed easing, with a 25 bp cut next week fully priced and another ~50 bp expected by year-end. This week’s data showed steady inflation but softening labor markets, reinforcing dovish expectations. Bulls point to upbeat AI momentum (ORCL’s huge RPO surge, NVDA demand signals), consumer resilience from bank conferences, and strong Treasury auctions. Bears highlight job market fragility, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Russia.
On trade, Treasury Secretary Bessent will meet Chinese officials in Madrid next week ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit. Beijing has warned Mexico against Trump-backed tariff hikes. Today’s key release is UMich sentiment, expected little changed. Next week: FOMC (25 bp cut expected), August retail sales, regional Fed surveys, NAHB sentiment, and August new-home sales.
Company Updates:
- MSFT: Signed MOU with OpenAI reaffirming partnership; EU accepted competition commitments.
- ADBE: Earnings better than feared; strength in ARR from AI applications noted.
- WBD: Continued rally on reports of potential PSKY acquisition bid.
- SMCI: Announced broad availability of NVDA Blackwell Ultra systems.
- RH: Missed and cut guidance, citing tariff dislocation and macro uncertainty.
- BABA & BIDU: Began training AI models on internally designed chips, though still rely on NVDA for advanced models.
U.S. equities rallied Thursday (Dow +1.36%, S&P 500 +0.85%, Nasdaq +0.72%, Russell 2000 +1.83%), closing near best levels with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at fresh record highs. The Russell 2000 outperformed, now less than 1% from its 2021 record. Treasuries were little changed to firmer, curve flattening after a solid 30Y auction. Dollar index slipped 0.3%, gold fell 0.2%, Bitcoin futures gained 0.7%, and WTI crude dropped 2%.
Focus was squarely on inflation and labor. August CPI came in hotter on the headline (+0.4% m/m, 2.9% y/y) but core rose in line with expectations (+0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y). Weekly initial jobless claims jumped to 263K, a four-year high, underscoring labor market softening. Markets now price ~70 bp of Fed cuts this year, with a September 25 bp move seen as locked in. Trade policy was also in focus, with reports the EU is unlikely to match Trump’s request to raise tariffs on China and India. Political headlines revolved around budget negotiations, with a House GOP stopgap funding proposal pushing shutdown risk to late November. Geopolitical tensions stayed elevated after Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar and Russia’s violation of Polish airspace.
This week reinforced the dual narrative of softer labor data and contained inflation. Nonfarm payrolls showed weak gains (+22K) and revisions erased jobs, while ADP payrolls slowed sharply and JOLTS openings hit cycle lows. ISM services surprised positively on new orders, but its employment gauge remained in contraction. CPI and PPI reports highlighted tariff-linked price pressures but also mixed signals in core goods, easing Fed concern. Jobless claims spiking to a four-year high was the biggest data point, strengthening expectations for rate cuts. The market is now positioned for a September cut and ~70 bp of easing by year-end, with the macro narrative balanced between Fed support and uncertainty around tariffs, deficits, and seasonality.
Sector Highlights
Market leadership rotated again, with Materials (+2.1%), Healthcare (+1.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.7%), Financials (+1.7%), and Real Estate (+1.6%) leading. Energy (-0.04%), Tech (+0.2%), and Communication Services (+0.2%) lagged, while Utilities (+0.5%) were muted. Sector breadth reinforced the underlying rotation theme, with semis and healthcare strength offset by energy, airlines, and software weakness.
Information Technology
- ORCL +36%: FQ1 results highlighted a 359% y/y surge in RPO to $455B from multi-billion AI contracts; guided higher but noted capex/FCF pressures.
- TSM: August revenue +34% y/y, supported by AI demand.
- SNPS -35.8%: Missed Q3; weakness in Design IP tied to China restrictions and customer transitions.
- AVGO -2.7%: Apple milestone in in-house N1 chip flagged as risk to Broadcom reliance.
- MU +7.5%: Analysts highlighted stronger hyperscaler demand ahead of earnings.
- AMD -2.4%: Downgraded on valuation/margin pressures.
Communication Services
- WBD +28.8%: Media reports of a mostly cash takeover bid from Paramount Skydance.
- PSKY +15.6%: Rallied on WBD bid headlines.
- GOOGL, META: Reportedly facing FTC probe into AI chatbot practices.
- DUOL +8.2%: Boosted by expectations of benefiting from Apple App Store rule changes.
Consumer Discretionary
- OPEN +79.8%: Kaz Nejatian (ex-Shopify COO) appointed CEO.
- OXM +27.6%: Strong EPS/margins; reiterated FY outlook despite tariff headwinds.
- SBUX: Reportedly narrowed bidders for China business sale.
- CHWY +2.6%: Multiple upgrades post-selloff, citing stronger long-term revenue growth.
- DAL -1.6%: Reaffirmed EPS but flagged higher costs and weak transatlantic performance.
Healthcare
- CNC +9%: Reaffirmed above-consensus FY25 EPS guidance.
- RVMD +14.3%: Positive Phase 1 updates for pancreatic cancer therapy.
- TEM +13.7%: FDA clearance for updated cardiac imaging device.
- ABBV +4.1%: Settled Rinvoq litigation, blocking generics until 2037.
Financials
- PNC: CEO reiterated plan to double bank’s size to $1T.
- BHF +12.5%: Takeover interest from Aquarian/Mubadala.
- FITB: Announced charge tied to fraudulent loans at Tricolor.
Materials
- AA -1.1%: Cautious Q3 update; lower shipments and higher costs.
Other Highlights
- KR: EPS and comps beat; raised FY guidance; buybacks resuming by year-end.
- ENVX – down: Announced $300M convertible offering.
- FIGR IPO: Positive debut; GEMI, VIA, LGN listings due Friday.
- KLAR +14.6%: Strong post-IPO trading.
Eco Data Releases | Friday September 12th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday September 12th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
