September 15, 2025
S&P futures up 0.1% Monday morning, easing from earlier highs. Follows last week’s solid gains for major indices, though Friday was softer outside big tech. Europe mostly higher, Asia mixed. Treasuries steady, dollar (0.2%), gold (0.2%), Bitcoin (1.8%), and WTI crude +0.1%.
Focus this week is Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where markets expect a 25 bp cut and updated dot plot projections, with Trump calling for a “big cut.” Trade in focus as U.S.–China talks continue in Madrid, with Bessent signaling a TikTok deal may be near. Meanwhile, China said NVDA violated antitrust rules and opened an anti-dumping probe into TXN and ADI. In Washington, Senate votes today on Stephen Miran’s Fed nomination; talk of a 30-Sep government shutdown persists but markets largely ignoring it. Data this week includes retail sales, IP, housing starts, Philly Fed, and jobless claims.
Corporate:
- NVDA: Hit by China’s ruling on Mellanox deal.
- TXN, ADI: Under pressure on new China anti-dumping probe.
- TSLA: Up after Musk bought 2.57M shares; boosting German output on stronger sales.
- UNH: Reportedly unable to secure meetings with Trump amid regulatory scrutiny.
- UBS: NY Post says may shift domicile to U.S. to avoid Swiss capital rules.
- BAM: In talks to buy Yes! Communities for ~$10B.
- WHR: Warned U.S. officials rivals skirting tariffs via undervaluing imports.
U.S. equities were mostly lower in a very quiet Friday session, Dow (0.59%), S&P 500 (0.05%), Nasdaq +0.44%, Russell 2000 (1.01%), though the Nasdaq managed another record close. For the week, the major indices still posted moderate gains, with breadth generally negative and leadership concentrated in big tech. Treasuries weakened, with yields up 2–5 bp, capping a week marked by curve flattening. Dollar index added 0.1%. Gold rose 0.4%, up 0.9% for the week and closing at a fresh record high. Bitcoin futures gained 2%. WTI crude finished up 0.5%, ending the week higher by 1.3%.
Macro focus stayed on policy expectations with markets fully pricing in a 25 bp Fed cut at next week’s FOMC and another 50 bp by year-end. This week’s economic data reinforced the narrative of steady inflation but a softening labor market, highlighted by the UMich sentiment miss on Friday. Sentiment slipped to 55.4, below expectations, with weakness concentrated among lower- and middle-income consumers. Inflation expectations were steady at 4.8% for one-year and ticked up to 3.9% for five-year. Elsewhere, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder gained traction as a contender to replace Powell. Trade tensions remained in focus ahead of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s planned Madrid meeting with Chinese officials, as Beijing warned Mexico over U.S.-backed tariff hikes. Geopolitical risks lingered with Middle East and Russian headlines adding to uncertainty.
Sector Performance
Outperformers included utilities, consumer discretionary, and technology, while healthcare, materials, industrials, energy, and financials lagged. Strength in utilities, insurance, and banks contrasted with notable weakness in pharma, biotech, machinery, and transports. Media stocks (WBD) and profitless tech outperformed, while retail favorites and small caps underperformed.
Company-Specific News (by GICS Sector)
- Information Technology:
- MSFT signed an MOU with OpenAI reaffirming partnership; EU regulators accepted competition commitments.
- ADBE earnings were better than feared with ARR strength from AI, though flagged moderating revenue growth and competition.
- ANET fell after underwhelming Analyst Day guidance, with FY26 revenue slightly below consensus.
- SMCI began delivering NVDA Blackwell Ultra systems globally.
- Healthcare:
- PFE and MRNA under pressure on reports Trump officials plan to link vaccines to child deaths.
- NVS downgraded to sell at Goldman, citing structurally slower growth and exclusivity loss risks.
- Communication Services:
- WBD extended gains after reports of a potential takeover bid from PSKY.
- Media reports noted FTC investigating AI chatbot providers, including GOOGL and META.
- Consumer Discretionary:
- RH missed Q2 earnings and cut guidance, citing tariffs and macro uncertainty; CEO called housing market the worst in his career.
- RIVN fell after reports Amazon is testing other EV delivery vehicles, ending Rivian exclusivity.
- FUN gained after reporting a 3% y/y increase in August attendance and reaffirming FY guidance.
- Financials:
- Insurance, banks, and managed care sectors saw relative strength.
- No major individual bank earnings, but commentary remained constructive post-conferences.
- Industrials & Materials:
- TROX downgraded to underperform at Mizuho on pricing concerns.
- HUN also downgraded, with analysts citing weak durable markets and Chinese import competition.
- SLG upgraded at Citi, flagged as a buying opportunity amid NYC office pullback.
- Consumer Staples:
- TAP downgraded to underweight at MS, with beer category trends seen as pressured for longer.
Eco Data Releases | Monday September 15th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday September 15th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
