September 17, 2025
S&P futures flat Wednesday morning after a quiet Tuesday that saw the S&P and Nasdaq edge off record highs and the Nasdaq 100 snap a nine-day streak. Asian trading was mixed, with Hong Kong up nearly 2% on tech strength, while Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia fell. Europe opened modestly higher. Treasuries firmed into the FOMC, with long yields down 2–3 bp. Dollar ticked up 0.1% after yesterday’s sharp drop, gold slipped 0.5%, Bitcoin eased 0.1%, and WTI crude fell 0.7%.
Markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of today’s FOMC decision, with a 25 bp cut widely expected. Focus is on dissents, the dot plot, and Powell’s tone given recent labor market softening. Reports highlighted China telling its major tech firms to stop buying NVDA chips, while also touting a domestic AI data-center buildout. SCMP said U.S.–China trade talks may soon yield agreements on TikTok, ag products, and BA jet purchases. U.S. shutdown risks ticked up as Democrats rejected the GOP’s stopgap plan.
On the data front, August housing starts and permits are due this morning, with the FOMC statement and Powell press conference this afternoon. The Bank of Canada also decides rates today. Later in the week, focus shifts to initial claims and the Philly Fed survey Thursday.
Corporate updates:
- NVDA – Hit by reports China ordered its tech firms to stop chip purchases.
- AAPL – iPhone sales in China reportedly down 6% y/y ahead of iPhone 17 launch.
- WDAY – Rallied on news Elliott has built a significant stake.
- GIS – Reports earnings this morning.
- STUB – Priced IPO at $23.50/share, valuing firm at $8.6B.
- ARW – Weaker after CEO exit.
- RICK – Extended losses on news of executive indictments.
U.S. equities finished mostly lower in quiet Tuesday trading, Dow (0.27%), S&P 500 (0.13%), Nasdaq (0.07%), Russell 2000 (0.09%), with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq easing slightly from Monday’s record highs. Treasuries were firmer at the short end, helped by a well-received 20Y auction, while yields slipped 2–3 bp. The dollar index had its weakest daily performance since late August (-0.6%). Gold gained 0.2%, Bitcoin futures rose 1.3%, and WTI crude rallied 1.9%.
The macro narrative remained focused on the Fed, with the September FOMC meeting widely expected to deliver a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday. Miran’s Senate confirmation adds a likely dissent favoring a larger 50 bp move, though consensus remains for a quarter-point cut. Hotter-than-expected August retail sales and import price data were absorbed without changing rate expectations, as investors continue to lean on consumer resilience to offset labor-market softness. Near-term pullback chatter centered on stretched expectations (~150 bp of cuts priced in over the next year), seasonality, and buyback blackouts. Fiscal risk also loomed, with House Republicans introducing a stopgap spending bill to avoid a 30-Sep shutdown, though Senate approval remains uncertain.
Sector Performance
Energy was the clear standout, up 1.7% on oil strength. Consumer Discretionary also outperformed (+0.8%), supported by strong retail sales data. Communication Services (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%), and Healthcare (+0.0%) eked out modest gains. On the downside, Utilities (-1.8%) lagged sharply, followed by Real Estate (-0.7%), Technology (-0.6%), Materials (-0.5%), Industrials (-0.3%), and Financials (-0.2%), reflecting weakness in banks, insurers, and credit cards.
Company News by Sector
- Information Technology:
- NVDA – Reuters reported tepid demand for its new China chip.
- MSFT – Raised its quarterly dividend nearly 10%.
- ORCL – Gained on reports it will play a key role in the TikTok deal.
- AMKR – Strength tied to Apple comments on supply chain reshoring.
- ADTN – Fell on proposed $150M convertible notes offering.
- PLAY – Dropped sharply after missing Q2 metrics.
- Communication Services:
- LYV – In focus on reports the FTC is probing TicketMaster’s bot policies.
- WBTN – Surged after signing term sheet with DIS for digital comics platform and equity investment.
- WBD – Downgraded by TD Cowen on deal uncertainty with PSKY.
- NYT – Fell after Trump filed a $15B defamation lawsuit.
- Consumer Discretionary:
- CMG – Authorized an additional $500M in buybacks.
- HOG – Appointed two new independent directors.
- DENN – Investor groups disclosed a 9.4% stake.
- Industrials / Materials:
- STLD – Guided Q3 EPS above consensus on strong shipments and spreads.
- BCC – Guided Q3 EBITDA well below consensus.
- FERG – Rose on Q4 beat and updated FY25 guidance.
- ARCB – Expanded buyback authorization.
- Healthcare:
- HIMS – Dropped after FDA warning letter accused the company of false claims.
- PFE, MRNA – Weighed by reports of potential Trump administration linkage of vaccines to child deaths.
- Consumer Staples:
- HSY – Upgraded to buy at Goldman Sachs on market share improvement prospects.
- Financials:
- PFGC & USFD – Entered into a data-sharing agreement tied to a potential merger.
- China Tech / ADRs:
- BIDU – Upgraded to buy at Arete, citing chip venture tailwinds.
- NIO – Upgraded at UBS; analysts expect breakeven FCF in FY26.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday September 17th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday September 17th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
