September 19, 2025
S&P futures slightly higher Friday after U.S. equities rallied Thursday, with the S&P and Nasdaq closing at new highs and the Russell 2000 breaking its Nov-21 record. Big tech and semis led gains, highlighted by NVDA’s partnership driving INTC up 20%+. Asia ended mostly lower overnight, while Europe is up ~0.4%. Treasuries steady to slightly weaker, dollar +0.2%, gold +0.3%, Bitcoin (0.7%), WTI crude (1.1%).
Headlines remain quiet ahead of the 9:00 Trump–Xi call, expected to finalize the TikTok deal and potentially touch on soybeans, semis, rare earths, and aircraft. No major economic data today after a week of mostly better-than-expected prints, including strong retail sales and lower claims. Looking to next week: flash PMIs, durable goods, existing home sales, and core PCE.
Corporate:
- FDX: Beat on Q1 EPS/revenue; upside tied to very low expectations after recent tariff/demand warnings.
- LEN: Missed on Q3 sales and GM; weaker Q4 guide but seen as prudent to cut production.
- SCHL: Weaker Education Solutions performance weighed on stock.
- AAPL: Bloomberg said strong Asia demand for iPhone 17 Pro.
- JEF: Expanded partnership with Sumitomo Mitsui.
- GNW: Boosted buyback by $350M
U.S. equities moved higher Thursday (Dow +0.27%, S&P 500 +0.48%, Nasdaq +0.94%, Russell 2000 +2.51%), with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting fresh record closes and the Russell 2000 breaking its November 2021 high. Strength was tied to the favorable track record of Fed easing cycles, with small caps among the standouts given their historical sensitivity to rate cuts. Cyclicals and AI-linked tech also benefited from renewed momentum, while longer-dated Treasury yields rebounded off multi-month lows, weighing on parts of the market. The September Philly Fed manufacturing index surprised strongly to the upside, while jobless claims normalized following the prior week’s Texas-driven fraud spike. Fed policy remains a dominant narrative, with Powell signaling cuts are risk-management moves amid labor market cooling. Trade and political headlines added to the backdrop, including reports of a TikTok framework, Trump’s SCOTUS request to fire Fed Governor Cook, and a November hearing date on IEEPA tariffs.
Key Economic Data
- Philly Fed Index (Sep): 23.2 vs 3.0 consensus; new orders and shipments strong, prices paid and received dropped sharply.
- Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 14 week): 231K vs 241K consensus and 263K prior; continuing claims 1920K vs 1946K consensus.
- Housing/permits: No new data today; August housing starts/permits released Wednesday came in weaker.
- Next up: Flash PMIs, durable goods, existing home sales, and core PCE inflation next week.
Sector Highlights
- Outperformers: Tech +1.36%, Industrials +1.06%
- Underperformers: Consumer Staples (-1.03%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.51%), Energy (-0.43%), Materials (-0.14%), Utilities +0.05%, Real Estate +0.06%, Financials +0.06%, Healthcare +0.18%, Communication Services +0.28%
Information Technology
- NVDA / INTC: Nvidia to invest $5B in Intel to jointly develop PC and data-center chips; Intel rallied on news.
- CRWD (+12.8%): Analyst day long-term guide impressed, with FY27 net-new ARR well above consensus.
- AAPL: Reportedly targeting 10% iPhone shipment increase next year with a foldable model.
- GOOGL: China dropped antitrust probe; separately rolled out Gemini AI integration into Chrome.
- META: Unveiled new smartglasses with AI features; also exploring media licensing for AI.
- DBX (-2.8%): Downgraded to sell at UBS, citing weak adoption of Dropbox Dash and ongoing customer spend pressure.
- ARW (-6.2%): Fell on CEO resignation.
Healthcare
- NVO (+6.3%): REACH trial showed Ozempic cut risk of major cardiac events by 23%.
- DXCM: Hit by short-seller allegations of inaccuracies in G7 device.
- CRSP (+6.6%): Initiated overweight at JPMorgan; positive on Casgevy and balanced approach to gene editing.
Consumer Discretionary
- DRI (-7.7%): EPS miss, comps slightly ahead; revenue growth outlook disappointed.
- CBRL (-7.6%): Q4 EPS miss; revenue/comps beat, but FY26 guide weak on traffic softness.
- ANF (+5.3%): Initiated buy at BTIG on confidence in brand momentum.
- AS (+2.1%): Positive preannouncement; growth led by Salomon and Arc’teryx.
Financials
- RDN (+7.2%): Announced $1.7B acquisition of Inigo, expected to be EPS-accretive; also divesting non-core businesses.
- FDS (-10.4%): Q4 EPS miss; FY26 guide light on margins and EPS despite solid ASV growth.
Industrials
- CSX (+2.0%): Upgraded to outperform at RBC, citing rail consolidation upside and improved ops.
- NUE (-6.0%): Guided Q3 EPS ~18% below Street; cited weakness across all segments.
- Spirit Airlines: Cutting capacity by 25% this fall, warning of potential layoffs.
Utilities / Energy
- NRG: Raised 2025 guidance midpoint by ~8% but provided limited detail.
Real Estate
- PGRE (-11.4%): To be acquired by RITM for $6.60/sh, ~11% discount to prior close.
Eco Data Releases | Friday September 19th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday September 19th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
