September 26, 2025
S&P futures a touch higher Friday morning after U.S. equities fell Thursday, with the S&P and Nasdaq down for a third straight session. Big tech, most-shorted, and tariff-exposed names led the pullback, while energy and select defensives outperformed. Asia closed mostly lower (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong laggards), while Europe opened modestly higher (~0.3%). Treasuries were steady to slightly firmer, the dollar slipped 0.1%, gold edged up 0.2%, bitcoin rose 0.4%, and WTI crude eased 0.2%.
Markets are grappling with a fresh tariff ramp. Trump announced new levies: 25% on heavy trucks, 50% on select housing products, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 100% on branded drugs without U.S. production. Reports also suggested the White House may mandate a 1:1 domestic-to-import ratio for semiconductors. Broader themes remain unchanged—uncertainty around AI capex ROI, muted shutdown risk, and Fed independence in the spotlight with SCOTUS reviewing Trump’s authority to remove Fed Governor Cook.
Today’s focus is the August personal income and spending report, with core PCE expected at +0.2% m/m (2.9% y/y). Final September Michigan sentiment is also due, with consensus for 55.4. Fed’s Bowman and Barkin speak, with Bowman already highlighting labor market fragility as a case for easing. Next week brings JOLTs, ISM manufacturing/services, and Friday’s employment report.
Corporate Highlights:
- COST: Earnings largely in line; positives included share gains, fee tailwind, 1% comp lift from extended hours, and steady inflationary backdrop.
- INTC: Higher again on reports of manufacturing talks with TSM.
- PCAR: Benefited from new 25% truck tariff.
- W, WSM: Weaker on 30% furniture tariff.
- CNXC: Under pressure on softer margin outlook; tariffs and excess capacity an overhang.
- FUN: Reportedly facing activist push to spin out or sell real estate.
U.S. equities finished lower Thursday (Dow -0.38%, S&P 500 -0.50%, Nasdaq -0.50%, Russell 2000 -0.98%), marking a third straight decline, though indexes ended off session lows. Rates remained the main overhang with Treasury yields rising 5–6 bp at the short end after a weak $44B 7Y auction, driving curve flattening and weighing on growth stocks. The dollar extended its two-day rally (+0.6%), gold edged higher (+0.1%), and bitcoin fell 3.5%. Oil was flat despite intraday swings. Macro data were stronger across the board: August durable goods orders rose 2.9% m/m (vs. -0.5% consensus), jobless claims fell to 218K, and final Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8% SAAR on stronger consumer spending. Existing home sales also surprised to the upside, reinforcing signals of underlying resilience.
Fedspeak remained split, underscoring policy uncertainty. Governor Miran suggested scope for 50 bp cuts and argued policy is more restrictive than recognized, while Goolsbee and Schmid stressed caution against front-loading easing. Daly reiterated that rates remain modestly restrictive and could come down over time. The market now prices in ~60% odds of two more cuts in 2025, down from 82% last week. Meanwhile, Washington headlines added noise: the White House ordered agencies to prepare not just for furloughs but permanent layoffs in the event of a shutdown, marking a more aggressive posture than past standoffs. Trade tensions resurfaced as the U.S. launched Section 232 probes into medical devices, robotics, and industrial machinery, while formally cutting auto tariffs on EU vehicles to 15%. Geopolitics also remained in focus with Trump shifting tone on Ukraine, telling allies Europe should shoulder more responsibility, while in the Middle East his Gaza peace plan drew mixed regional responses.
The economic calendar remains busy into week-end: Friday brings personal income and spending with a focus on core PCE inflation (expected +0.2% m/m, steady at 2.9% y/y), alongside final September University of Michigan sentiment. Quarter-end flows and ongoing corporate buyback blackouts are also flagged as near-term headwinds, adding to the sense of a catalyst vacuum despite strong economic data.
Sector Performance
Energy (+0.87%) was the standout as integrateds, refiners, and E&Ps rode higher crude. Tech finished flat overall, but sector internals were wide with hardware and IT services stronger while semis and software lagged. Financials were mixed, with custody banks higher but consumer finance weaker. Healthcare (-1.67%) was the day’s biggest laggard on tariff probe headlines and pharma/biotech softness. Consumer Discretionary (-1.47%) dragged on KMX’s results, while Materials (-1.21%) fell on ongoing copper weakness. Industrials (-0.66%) and defensives like Utilities (-0.97%) and Staples (-0.59%) also underperformed.
Technology
- ORCL −5.6%: Initiated Sell at Rothschild & Redburn; headlines on TikTok stake added pressure.
- INTC +8.8%: Extended gains on reports of AAPL investment talks and outreach to TSM; upgraded to Neutral at Seaport.
- IBM +5.2%: HSBC quantum-enabled trading demo with IBM boosted sentiment.
- ACN −2.7%: Q4 beat but FY26 revenue guidance light; bookings growth a positive.
- SNX +6.2%: Q3 beat across portfolios; Q4 guidance above Street.
- JBL −6.7%: FQ4 revenue strong, margins light; FY26 guidance underwhelmed relative to expectations.
Consumer Discretionary
- TSLA: Among the notable tech laggards.
- KMX −20.1%: FQ2 miss on sales and comps; flagged share loss and finance business weakness.
- SBUX: Approved restructuring plan involving store closures.
Financials
- C: Selling 25% stake in Banamex.
- UNFI +3.5%: Upgraded to Outperform at BMO; cited customer retention and momentum.
Healthcare
- GEHC −3.4%: Weighed down after White House launched Section 232 probe into PPE, robotics, and medical devices.
- VRTX +1.4%: Upgraded to Outperform at Leerink; cited pipeline catalysts.
Industrials
- FUL −3.9%: Q3 results in line but revenue light; lowered FY EPS midpoint.
Materials
- FCX −6.2%: Ongoing weakness from Grasberg mine disruption; Q4 sales likely “insignificant.”
Communication Services
- AMZN: Settled $2.5B FTC case tied to Prime membership practices.
- META/ORCL: TikTok stake developments in headlines; White House order gives ORCL, Silver Lake, MGX ~45% control
Eco Data Releases | Friday September 26th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday September 26th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
