October 9, 2025
S&P futures flat following Wednesday’s mostly higher session, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record highs led by renewed strength in AI. European markets are mostly higher after a stronger Asian session. Treasuries are steady to slightly firmer at the long end, the Dollar Index is unchanged, gold is down 0.2% after another record close yesterday, and WTI crude is off 0.6%.
The broad narrative remains the same, with the path of least resistance still upward. The U.S. government shutdown shows no progress toward resolution, though markets continue to shrug off its effects, even as more federal workers miss paychecks and data releases are disrupted. FOMC minutes added little new, reaffirming well-understood divisions among policymakers, while market consensus still anticipates two 25 bp cuts later this year. The bullish backdrop continues to hinge on AI optimism, upbeat Q3 earnings expectations, rising M&A, low volatility, retail investor participation, and positive Q4 seasonality—though growing talk of “AI circularity” has injected some caution.
Another full slate of Fed commentary is expected today, including Powell’s prerecorded remarks at a community-banking conference. Overnight, NY Fed’s Williams told the New York Times that further rate cuts may be needed to support the labor market. In Washington, there’s no movement on the shutdown, though Republicans are reportedly exploring department-by-department appropriations bills. Treasury will auction $22 B in 30-year bonds today following a weak 10-year sale Wednesday marked by soft foreign demand. Abroad, France’s Macron said he will appoint a new prime minister by Friday, while Trump claimed both Israel and Hamas have signed initial phases of his Gaza peace plan.
Corporate Highlights
- PEP beat on earnings and revenue, noting accelerating net revenue growth and stronger North American beverage momentum.
- DAL beat and raised guidance, citing broad-based acceleration in sales across all regions over the past six weeks.
- TSM reported a surge in revenue on rising AI demand.
- COST posted September sales growth above consensus.
- MP rallied after China announced new elements would be added to its rare-earth export control list.
- NVO agreed to acquire AKRO for $4.7 B in cash.
- AZZ results came in light, with management citing weaker demand in several end markets.
U.S. equities rebounded Wednesday (Dow 0.00% · S&P 500 +0.58% · Nasdaq +1.12% · Russell 2000 +1.04%), with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at fresh record highs. The rally was led by big tech, particularly NVIDIA, as the AI trade recovered following Tuesday’s weakness. Other outperformers included semiconductors, software, communications/networking, managed care, airlines, trucking, and industrial metals. Defensives such as utilities and staples also saw moderate gains. Laggards included energy, large-cap banks, insurers, REITs, ag chemicals, hospitals, homebuilders, and department stores.
Treasuries were mixed, with the 10-year auction tailing by 0.3 bp and foreign demand softening. The Dollar Index gained 0.3%, gold rose 1.7% to fresh records above $4,000/oz, and Bitcoin climbed 1.4%. WTI crude added 1.3%.
Macro catalysts were limited, with AI sentiment again the dominant theme amid continued deal flow and debate over valuations, productivity, and ROI. Broader sentiment remains supported by Fed easing expectations, low volatility, and positive Q3 earnings momentum, while bearish narratives center on sticky inflation, tariff overhangs, and weaker alternative data. The September FOMC minutes largely reiterated the Fed’s cautious stance—highlighting diminished upside inflation risk but persistent labor-market softness—and confirmed that September’s 25 bp rate cut was a risk-management move.
Fed officials Barr and Musalem spoke without major surprises, and attention turns to Powell’s remarks (Thursday, pre-recorded) and additional Fedspeak from Bowman, Kashkari, and Daly. The 30-year Treasury auction follows Thursday, while Friday’s University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations reports close out the week.
Sector Highlights
- Outperformers: Technology (+1.52%), Industrials (+0.85%), Utilities (+0.69%)
- Underperformers: Energy (-0.57%), Financials (-0.52%), Consumer Staples (-0.52%), Real Estate (-0.50%), Communication Services (+0.02%), Healthcare (+0.18%), Materials (+0.52%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.56%)
Technology (+1.52%) — Led by a rebound in AI and semis.
- NVDA +2.2%: Reportedly investing $2B equity in xAI’s $20B funding round.
- CFLT +7.5%: Jumped on reports the firm is exploring a sale after PE and strategic interest.
- CRSR +8.8%: Initiated Buy at Craig-Hallum on strong seasonal trends.
- ASML -1.5%: Weighed down by congressional report flagging U.S. export concerns.
Industrials (+0.85%) — Helped by M&A and transport strength.
- BLD +10.1%: Announced $1B cash acquisition of Specialty Products & Insulation, immediately accretive to EPS.
- Airlines and trucking advanced on stable fuel prices and improved freight data.
Utilities (+0.69%) — Benefited from defensive rotation and lower yields.
- CEG +3.6%: Upgraded to Buy at Seaport; cited higher power prices and earnings momentum.
Energy (-0.57%) — Weighed by selective profit-taking despite firmer crude.
- WTI +1.3%; sentiment mixed following recent volatility.
Financials (-0.52%) — Declined on credit and exposure concerns.
- JEF -7.9%: Disclosed $715M receivables tied to bankrupt First Brands Group.
- WAL -4.2%: Also pressured by First Brands exposure.
Consumer Staples (-0.52%) — Marginal weakness amid higher commodity costs.
- FRPT -6.4%: Downgraded at BofA on slowing pet food demand.
Healthcare (+0.18%) — Modest gains offset by select weakness.
- CGON +7.1%: Initiated Buy at Guggenheim on strong clinical potential.
- EW -1.3%: Downgraded at Oppenheimer on trial uncertainty.
Materials (+0.52%) — Supported by metals strength.
- AA +4.3%: Initiated Overweight at Wells Fargo on improving aluminum outlook.
Consumer Discretionary (+0.56%) — Boosted by retail and cosmetics.
- ELF +3.2%: Rose on upbeat forecasts and strong scanner data.
- TSLA: Slightly higher on restrained price cuts.
Communication Services (+0.02%) — Quiet trade; PSKY reportedly exploring joint bid with PE firms for WBD.
Eco Data Releases | Thursday October 9th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Thursday October 9th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
