October 21, 2025
S&P futures down 0.1% in Tuesday morning trading after Monday’s broad rally that saw all major indexes gain over 1%. Big tech mostly higher yesterday with AAPL leading, while semis, regional banks, investment banks, private equity, industrial metals, and China tech also outperformed. Staples and utilities lagged. Asian markets were broadly higher overnight, led by Greater China; Europe opened mixed. Treasuries firmer (yields down 1–2 bp). Dollar index +0.3%. Gold -1.8%. Bitcoin -3%. WTI crude flat.
Markets quiet this morning following Monday’s rebound driven by easing U.S.–China trade tensions and reduced concern over regional-bank credit stress, reinforced by ZION’s post-close earnings beat. Focus now shifting toward the heart of Q3 earnings season — including Mag 7 reports next week (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, META) — as well as next Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the Trump–Xi APEC summit (Oct 31–Nov 1). Seasonal tailwinds remain a bullish theme, while shutdown headlines are largely sidelined amid rising optimism for a near-term deal.
Macro outlook:
Today’s focus is the Philly Fed non-manufacturing index. Later in the week: existing home sales and state-level jobless claims (Thursday) and the delayed October CPI on Friday (+0.4% m/m, +3.1% y/y expected). No Fedspeak ahead of the Oct 29 FOMC, where another 25 bp cut is widely anticipated; futures still price roughly 50 bp of total easing this year.
Corporate highlights:
- STLD: Beat on FCF and shipments; noted aluminum trials, seasonal headwinds in Q4.
- WRB: Q3 largely in line.
- CCK: Beat and raised FY guidance.
- ZION: Gained post-earnings on PPNR beat, lower criticized loans; NDFI issues seen contained.
- BTSG: Positive preannouncement; raised FY guidance and announced 15M-share secondary.
- IPAR: Guided Q3 revenue slightly below consensus; flagged cautious consumer and retailer inventory discipline.
- FLR: Higher after disclosure of Starboard stake.
- COF, MAT, NFLX, TXN: Report after the close.
U.S. equities advanced on Monday (Dow +0.86% · S&P 500 +1.01% · Nasdaq +1.38% · Russell 2000 +1.80%). Gains were led by technology, cyclicals, and small caps, with investors showing renewed risk appetite following a series of supportive macro developments.
Sentiment improved on several fronts. Reports indicated that the White House is softening its tariff stance toward China, expanding exemptions and carveouts to de-escalate trade tensions. Meanwhile, optimism grew over a potential end to the government shutdown, with White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett saying a resolution is likely this week. Regional banks, which had been pressured by credit concerns, found support as analysts reaffirmed that recent loan issues were idiosyncratic rather than systemic.
The broader earnings backdrop remains constructive—86% of S&P 500 companies have beaten consensus EPS expectations so far this quarter—while retail inflows remain elevated and mutual fund redemptions and buyback blackouts are nearing an end. Combined with historically favorable late-October seasonality, these dynamics have bolstered the “risk-on” tone heading into the final third of the month.
In macro markets, Treasuries were narrowly mixed (yields +1 bp), the Dollar Index gained 0.1%, and gold jumped 3.3%, extending its recent rally as part of the “debasement trade.” Bitcoin rose 4.5%, while WTI crude slipped 0.9% amid supply stability and profit-taking.
The week’s economic schedule is light until Friday’s delayed October CPI report, expected to show headline CPI +0.4% m/m (+3.1% y/y) and core CPI +0.3% m/m (+3.1% y/y). Other data include Tuesday’s Philly Fed non-manufacturing index, Thursday’s existing home sales and state-level jobless claims, and Friday’s flash PMIs and Michigan sentiment. The Fed blackout period is underway ahead of the October 29 FOMC meeting, where another 25 bp rate cut is widely expected. Futures imply roughly 50 bp of total easing by year-end.AM
Sector Highlights
Information Technology
- AAPL +4.2% – Reports from FT and Bloomberg highlighted strong iPhone 17 upgrade demand in both the U.S. and China; Loop Capital upgraded the stock to Buy.
- ORCL -3.1% – Pulled back on “sell-the-news” following its analyst day; JPM downgraded company credit to Neutral, citing capital-intensity and limited visibility on cloud margins.
- KLAC +4.4% – Upgraded to Overweight at Barclays on strength in process-control leadership and leverage to AI compute investment.
- ALAB -1.7% – Downgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays on weaker Ethernet traction and product transition risks.
- TEM +8.2% – Initiated Buy at Canaccord Genuity; analysts cited potential for large-scale AI deployment in oncology and genomic profiling.
Communication Services
- AMZN – AWS suffered a widespread outage early in the day; operations largely restored by midday.
- APP -4.2% – Under pressure after reports of new regulatory scrutiny related to consumer data collection; SEC reportedly investigating affiliated data brokers.
Consumer Discretionary
- WW +8.6% – Announced a partnership with Amazon Pharmacy for GLP-1 prescription delivery and real-time medication availability.
- BA +1.3% – FAA authorized Boeing to increase 737 Max production from 38 to 42 planes per month, the first increase in nearly two years.
- ACHR +4.4% – Selected by Korean Air as exclusive eVTOL partner, with plans to purchase up to 100 Midnight aircraft.
- RIVN -1.3% – Downgraded to Underperform at Mizuho, citing slowing EV demand and loss of IRA credit benefits.
Health Care
- HOLX +2.7% – Bloomberg reported Blackstone and TPG in advanced talks to acquire Hologic for $17B+ (~$75/sh).
- COO +4.6% – Gained after reports that activist Jana Partners built a stake and may push for strategic alternatives or a merger with BLCO.
- EXEL -13.5% – Fell after releasing STELLAR-303 trial results for zanzalintinib, which analysts called commercially underwhelming.
- SMMT -4.7% – Declined after partner Akeso’s data were overshadowed by stronger competing TROP2 ADC results from Kelun.
Financials
- EBC – Reuters reported activists pressing the bank to pursue a sale amid margin pressure.
- PGR -2.6% – Downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley on valuation and pricing headwinds.
- Regional Banks – Rebounded broadly as investors viewed recent loan losses as isolated incidents rather than systemic risks.
Industrials & Materials
- CLF +23.9% – Surged after a Q3 EBITDA beat and announcement of a memorandum of understanding with a major global steel producer; company also exploring rare-earth recovery from mining assets.
- PSKY – Preparing large-scale layoffs beginning the week of Oct 27 as part of restructuring efforts.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday October 21st, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday October 21st, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
