October 24, 2025
S&P futures +0.3% in Friday morning trading following Thursday’s broad rally, which saw gains across big tech, energy, quantum computing, semis, industrials, and retail-favorite trades. All major U.S. equity indexes remain on track for 1%+ weekly gains. Asia mostly higher overnight (Japan, South Korea strong); Europe down ~0.2%. Treasuries slightly weaker (yields +1 bp), Dollar +0.1%, Gold -1.5% after Thursday’s bounce, Bitcoin +1.9%, WTI crude steady but +7.5% for the week.
The risk-on tone continues, supported by Fed easing expectations, solid macro data, double-digit earnings growth, and active retail participation. The Q3 earnings beat rate stands near 84%, with blended growth up ~100 bp since reporting season began. Sentiment also buoyed by confirmation of the Trump–Xi meeting (Oct 30) and conciliatory comments from China’s Commerce Minister. Markets shrugged off Trump’s announcement ending talks with Canada. Abroad, Eurozone PMI hit a 17-month high, Japan’s core inflation firmed as expected, and China’s five-year plan emphasized science and tech, boosting local equities.
Today’s key event is the delayed September CPI release (Street: headline +0.4% m/m, +3.1% y/y; core +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y). Also due: flash PMIs, Michigan sentiment, and new home sales. No Fedspeak before the Oct 29 FOMC, where the Fed is expected to cut 25 bp and may signal the end of QE.
Corporate highlights:
- INTC – Q3 beat in CCG and DCAI; Q4 outlook solid excluding Altera.
- F – Beat with upbeat truck production guidance.
- FIX – Jumped on Q3 beat; highlighted unprecedented demand.
- NEM – Beat but limited upside after +140% YTD run.
- NSC – Boost from land sale offset by OR deterioration and intermodal headwinds.
- DECK – Softer implied 2H guidance.
- MHK – Light Q4 outlook.
- BYD – Core customer demand strong; destination business softer.
- SAM – Beat and raised; noted strong consumer response to Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard.
- GOOGL/Anthropic – Expanded partnership for TPU chip use.
- TGT – Cutting 1,800 corporate roles in turnaround plan.
- AMAT – Announced ~4% workforce reduction.
Stocks bounced Thursday (Dow +0.31%, S&P 500 +0.58%, Nasdaq +0.89%, Russell 2000 +1.27%), retracing much of Wednesday’s slide. The S&P 500 is now ~0.2% below its 8-Oct record, with breadth improving and risk appetite aided by a powerful oil spike after fresh U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Treasury yields firmed ~4–5 bp, the dollar was flat, gold +2%, BTC +2.6%, and WTI +5.6% back above $60 (positioning helped the move). Trade headlines stayed noisy: the White House confirmed a Trump–Xi meeting next Thursday in South Korea even as reports flagged possible Section 301 probes and new U.S. software-related export curbs under consideration. Earnings remained mixed—beats are common but the expectations bar is driving dispersion—while the retail-led momentum unwind showed signs of stabilizing (quantum names rebounded on talk of potential government stakes). Existing home sales rose 1.5% m/m (a touch light), with the NAR citing falling mortgage rates and improving affordability. Friday’s October CPI (shutdown exception) is the week’s main macro print (Street: headline +0.4% m/m, +3.1% y/y; core +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y). No Fedspeak into the 29-Oct FOMC; markets still price ~50 bp of additional 2025 easing.
Sector Highlights
Leaders: Energy (+1.29%), lifted by crude’s surge; Industrials (+1.27%) on Aerospace/transport beats; Materials (+0.98%) with commodity beta and upgrades; Tech (+0.97%) rebounded despite mixed megacap signals; Consumer Discretionary (+0.74%) aided by autos/casinos/retail. Laggards: Consumer Staples (-0.41%), Utilities (-0.07%), Real Estate (-0.07%), Communication Services (-0.03%); Healthcare (+0.03%) and Financials (+0.25%) trailed broader tape on MCO/regional-bank overhangs.
Energy
- VLO: Beat on EPS/revenue; refining throughput strong (Gulf Coast & North Atlantic); ethanol/renewable diesel also positive.
- Crude beta lifted the group alongside sanctions headlines.
Information Technology
- TSLA (Autos, but key AI proxy): Revenue supported by record deliveries; EPS softer on margins—shares reversed higher.
- LRCX: Beat/raised; guided ahead for FQ2; sees outsized share of future NAND upgrade spend; China-restriction headwind manageable.
- IBM: Pressured by slower cloud-software growth.
- SAP: Guided FY cloud to the low end, but pipeline commentary constructive.
- IONQ / QS: Quantum and battery tech rallied on funding/speculation; QS raised FY adj. EBITDA outlook.
Communication Services
- TMUS: Beat/raised; record postpaid net adds, but ARPU softer.
- GOOGL: Firmer on report of a potential expanded cloud deal with Anthropic.
- UBER (Transportation platform): With NVDA, published AV data paper; collaboration on autonomy progressing.
Consumer Discretionary
- TSLA (see IT note).
- LVS: Beat; stepped up capital return; confident on Macau share gains through 2025.
- ORLY: Beat and raised.
- WH: Missed on RevPAR; cut FY outlook.
- KNX: Light guide amid excess capacity.
- TSCO: In-line quarter; tightened FY ranges; comp guidance nudged up.
Industrials
- HON: Beat/raised; Aerospace strength (commercial aftermarket, defense/space).
- URI: EBITDA miss; fleet productivity slowing.
- AAL: Beat; raised Q4/FY EPS; FCF >$1B outlook.
- ROP: EPS beat, revenue a touch light; trimmed high end of FY EPS; new $3B buyback.
- UNP: Beat; volumes mixed; OR slightly worse; sees near-term volume headwinds in metals/coal/autos.
Materials
- DOW: EBITDA beat; sequential earnings/FCF improvement despite industry pressure.
- AA: Narrower loss; alumina/aluminum production improved; better realized prices.
- AVY: Upgraded at two brokers; momentum from RFID rollout with Walmart.
- PKG (Containers & Packaging): Miss/guide-down; Greif deal costs in focus.
Health Care
- MOH: Miss; MLR pressure across segments; FY EPS cut more than expected.
- BSX: Beat; strong Endoscopy; Watchman standout; FY25 EPS/REV guidance raised.
- ISRG: Beat; raised 2025 procedure growth and margin outlook.
- WST: Beat; HVP components strength (GLP-1 tailwind); FY raised.
- MEDP: Beat; bookings re-accelerated; FY raised.
Financials
- TRU: Beat; raised FY; buybacks accelerated; U.S. lending trends stable.
- ZION: Stabilized—PPNR beat; management reiterated the prior $50M fraud charge-off was isolated.
Consumer Staples
- SMPL: Miss; FY revenue growth and margins guided lower on inflation/tariff timing lag.
- Food/beverage and staples retail trailed on the day despite solid prints elsewhere.
Real Estate / Utilities
- Sector tone mixed; REITs little changed; Utilities slightly softer, with macro focus on rates and energy pricing.
Eco Data Releases | Friday October 24th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday October 24th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
