October 30, 2025
S&P futures down 0.1% in Thursday morning trading, following a mixed Wednesday session in which the S&P 500 finished flat but breadth remained weak, with roughly 75% of index constituents lower. The Nasdaq outperformed, driven by renewed strength in NVDA. Asian markets were mostly lower overnight, with China lagging, while Europe opened narrowly mixed. Treasuries were steady to slightly firmer after Wednesday’s selloff, which saw yields rise about 10 bp across the curve, while the dollar slipped 0.1% after a 0.6% gain the prior session. Gold rose 0.4% after reclaiming the $4,000/oz level, Bitcoin fell 1%, and WTI crude declined 0.7%.
Markets face plenty of crosscurrents but little clear direction. The Trump–Xi meeting delivered the expected trade truce, easing some near-term tensions though the agreement remains fragile and largely reaffirmed prior reports. The Fed’s hawkish 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday continues to generate discussion, with several major firms still projecting another cut in December despite Powell’s cautionary tone. Meanwhile, Big Tech earnings reinforced the AI investment boom narrative, highlighting massive capex commitments and capacity constraints but also sparking debate over monetization, expense growth, and valuation sustainability.
Corporate Highlights
Technology & Communication Services
- GOOGL + — Q3 standout; strong Google Cloud acceleration, ~50% sequential backlog growth, and several new $1B+ AI deals. AI overviews now reach 2B+ users, with monetization rates comparable to traditional ad formats.
- MSFT + — Azure growth +39% y/y, above guidance and Street estimates but slightly below buy-side expectations. Management cited persistent capacity constraints through FY26 and guided to 37% Azure growth next quarter.
- META − — Despite AI-driven engagement strength, stock pressured by plans for significantly faster opex growth in 2026, which weighed on sentiment.
- KLAC + — Cited tailwinds from accelerating AI infrastructure demand, though timing of next ramp remains uncertain.
- NOW + — Beat on cRPO growth and guided above expectations, reinforcing enterprise software resilience.
Consumer Discretionary
- CMG − — Fell sharply after cutting comp guidance for a third consecutive quarter; margin pressure persisted.
- SBUX + — Posted an unexpected positive comp, with upbeat commentary on turnaround progress, though margin compression remained an issue.
- CVNA − — Delivered solid results but guided Q4 retail sales and EBITDA below expectations, with high investor bar into print.
- MGM − — Missed estimates amid softer Las Vegas volumes and declining table hold.
- EBAY − — GMV beat, but 2026 preliminary guide underwhelmed, raising questions about forward revenue growth.
Industrials & Materials
- CHRW + — Beat earnings, raised 2026 operating income target, and announced $2B buyback expansion, highlighting cost discipline.
- FMC − — Weighed down by continued pricing pressure and softer volume outlook across agricultural chemicals.
U.S. equities finished mixed (Dow −0.16% | S&P 500 0.00% | Nasdaq +0.55% | Russell 2000 −0.87%) in choppy post-FOMC trading as Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish tone dampened sentiment late in the session. While the Nasdaq gained 0.55% on continued AI optimism, broader market breadth remained weak — the equal-weight S&P 500 lagged the cap-weighted index by more than 100 bp, and eight of eleven sectors ended lower.
As expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% and announced that quantitative tightening (QT) will conclude on December 1. The statement acknowledged moderate economic growth and slower job gains, but dissent emerged on both sides of the debate: Governor Miran favored a 50 bp cut while Kansas City Fed’s Schmid preferred holding rates steady. Powell emphasized that another cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion,” citing uncertainty from the government shutdown’s data gap. Market odds for a December cut fell to ~57% from ~91% a day earlier.
Treasuries sold off, with yields up 6–11 bp across the curve and the curve flattening modestly. The Dollar Index rose 0.6%, while gold gained 0.4% to move back above $4,000/oz. WTI crude advanced 0.6%, and Bitcoin fell 2.6%. The only major data point, September pending-home sales, was unchanged m/m (vs +0.9% consensus), suggesting limited housing traction despite stronger equity wealth effects.
Focus now turns to the Mag 7 earnings releases (today and Thursday after the close) and the Trump–Xi meeting on Thursday, where trade and AI cooperation are expected to dominate. AI-related enthusiasm remains a key support for sentiment, though market breadth continues to narrow and rising corporate layoff announcements have drawn scrutiny around productivity and labor-market impacts.
Sector Highlights
Leadership remained narrow and tech-centric, with Technology (+1.05%), Communication Services (+1.05%), Energy (+0.80%), and Industrials (+0.25%) the only gainers.
Laggards included Real Estate (−2.66%), Consumer Staples (−2.00%), Materials (−1.79%), Financials (−1.70%), and Health Care (−0.97%).
The hawkish Powell tone and yield backup pressured rate-sensitive and defensive sectors, while AI-driven growth stories continued to dominate market leadership heading into Mag 7 earnings and the Trump–Xi summit.
Information Technology
- NVDA +3.1% — Extended rally, crossing $5 T market cap on reports Trump will discuss Blackwell chips with Xi; reiterated $500 B+ backlog through 2026.
- TER +20.5% — Beat and raised; strong AI System-on-a-Chip test demand; Q4 guide above Street.
- STX +19.1% — Beat and raised on cloud and AI storage demand; visibility through 2027.
- CTSH +5.7% — Q3 and Q4 guidance ahead; strength across geographies, large deal momentum.
- TEL +1.8% — Beat; cited 20%+ order growth and AI-linked industrial demand.
- RMBS −8.7% — Underwhelming Q4 guide after strong YTD rally.
- NXPI −3.9% — Mixed results, though Q4 outlook “better than feared.”
- CDNS −2.9% — Beat/raised, but IP growth slowed and tariff risk cited.
- GLW −3.3% — Solid quarter overshadowed by high expectations; Optical sales missed.
Communication Services
- GOOGL + — Benefited from ongoing AI ecosystem momentum ahead of earnings.
- CSGP −9.9% — Beat/raised, but slower progress at Homes.com disappointed investors.
- ETSY −12.8% — Beat on EPS, but buyers/sellers declined; CEO transition announced.
- CZR −15.2% — Missed; weaker Las Vegas traffic and lower table-game hold.
Consumer Discretionary
- CAT +11.6% — Beat; highlighted power-generation demand from data centers; raised FY guide.
- OSK −9.3% — Sales missed; lowered FY sales/EPS outlook on tariff concerns.
- EAT −7.5% — Beat, but FY guide unchanged and comps tough ahead.
- CAKE −7.3% — Missed comps, cited shutdown headwinds; modest Q4 margin pressure.
Consumer Staples
- KHC −4.5% — Cut FY 25 EPS and organic-sales guidance; weakness in emerging markets.
- MDLZ −3.9% — Beat on EPS but trimmed FY organic-revenue outlook; cocoa costs rising.
- HRL −9.1% — Warned on EPS miss and impairment charges; CFO departure.
Health Care
- CNC +12.5% — Big beat; Medicaid margins better than expected, FY 25 guide raised.
- GEHC −2.5% — Beat and nudged EPS higher; reaffirmed organic-growth outlook.
- AVTR −23.2% — Soft quarter, lowered FY guidance amid biosciences slowdown.
Financials
- FI −43.9% — Broad miss, organic growth halved, EPS guide cut ~17%; executive changes announced.
- V − — Flat; results slightly better, but muted reaction despite healthy spend data.
- VZ +2.3% — Beat on EPS/EBITDA; modest business-segment strength offset consumer softness.
Industrials
- FLS +30.9% — Beat, raised FY EPS; divested asbestos liabilities to improve FCF.
- BE +18.0% — Beat and guided FY 25 above prior range; emphasized AI-driven power demand.
- BA −4.4% — Large 777X charge ($4.9 B), 777-9 delayed to 2027; FCF turned positive.
Energy
- Sector +0.8% — Crude +0.6%; energy names supported by stable demand and AI-linked power buildout themes.
Materials / Real Estate
- REITs −2.7% — Weakened alongside higher yields.
- CSGS + — To be acquired by NEC for $2.9 B.
- OLN and commodity chemicals broadly weak on volume softness.
Eco Data Releases | Thursday October 30th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Thursday October 30th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
