November 12, 2025
S&P futures +0.3% in Wednesday morning trading after U.S. equities ended mostly higher Tuesday. Leadership came from energy, healthcare, staples, telecom, and homebuilders, while AI-leveraged, retail-favorite, and most-shorted names lagged. Asia mostly higher overnight (South Korea, Hong Kong strong; China softer) and Europe up ~1%. Treasuries firmer with yields down 3–4 bp on softer labor data, DXY +0.2%, gold +0.4%, Bitcoin +2%, and WTI crude −1%.
Narrative unchanged: markets remain range-bound with AI sentiment swinging positive again after AMD’s upbeat analyst day. Investors are in wait-and-see mode for delayed macro data—particularly the September and October NFP reports, which may follow within a week of the government reopening. Focus also on next week’s NVDA earnings, with setup seen as favorable given hyperscaler Q3 capex ($112B, +80% y/y) and $500B+ in 2025–26 data center orders. The retail earnings season begins next week, likely testing the consumer resilience narrative.
Corporate highlights:
- AMD rebounded premarket after Tuesday’s pullback despite bullish analyst-day commentary.
- ONON + after a beat and raise.
- ALC in line; reiterated guidance with improving equipment trends.
- DOX mixed: earnings and FCF beat, margins soft.
- BILL + on report it’s exploring a sale under activist pressure.
- CSR confirmed strategic review.
- BRCB − on post-earnings weakness despite solid comps.
- BHVN − after announcing a $150M secondary offering.
Macro/fed: No U.S. data today. Heavy Fedspeak lineup (Williams, Harker, Waller, Bostic, Miran, Collins). The market continues to price a ~66% chance of a December 25 bp rate cut. Treasury auctions $42B of 10-year notes today, with Trump hosting Wall Street CEOs this evening. 30-year auction Thursday, followed by additional Fed remarks through week’s end.
U.S. equities ended mixed on Tuesday (Dow +1.18% | S&P 500 +0.21% | Nasdaq −0.25% | Russell 2000 +0.11%), with the Dow and S&P 500 extending gains while the Nasdaq underperformed on renewed weakness in AI-related names. The session featured broadening market participation, with equal-weight S&P outperforming by nearly 60 bp as investors rotated into defensive and cyclical areas after Monday’s tech-led surge. The Treasury market was closed for Veterans Day, leaving yields unchanged, while the Dollar Index dipped 0.1%, gold slipped 0.1%, Bitcoin fell 3.1%, and WTI crude gained 1.5%.
The day’s tone reflected better breadth and sector rotation, with energy, healthcare, consumer staples, and materials leading, while semiconductors and growth tech came under pressure. The AI sentiment pullback was driven by profit-taking in NVDA after SoftBank’s $5.8B stake sale, weaker results from CRWV and NBIS, and leadership changes at META. The bond market remained a talking point after the Financial Times highlighted how large-scale AI capex is beginning to pressure funding costs and corporate spreads.
Macro news was light. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.2 in October, in line with expectations but still near multi-year lows, with owners citing labor shortages and profitability pressures. Meanwhile, ADP data showed U.S. job losses averaging ~11K per week in late October, contrasting with prior reports of modest job gains, suggesting labor market cooling. Fed Governor Barr reiterated caution on AI regulation but offered little new on rates.
Sector Highlights
Sector rotation was the key theme, with defensive and cyclical groups leading while growth tech lagged.
- Outperformers: Healthcare (+2.33%), Energy (+1.29%), Consumer Staples (+1.20%), Real Estate (+1.08%), Materials (+1.07%)
- Underperformers: Technology (−0.72%), Industrials (+0.01%), Utilities (+0.05%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.19%)
Healthcare strength came from pharma and managed care, while energy and materials benefited from firmer commodity prices. Tech weakness centered on semis, semicaps, and AI infrastructure names as investors took profits following sharp YTD gains.
Technology
- NVDA (−3.0%) fell as SoftBank confirmed it sold its $5.8B stake, unwinding Monday’s rally.
- AMD (−2.7%) slipped despite upbeat long-term guidance from its analyst day, projecting 80% CAGR in AI data-center revenue over 3–5 years.
- CRWV (−16.3%) beat Q3 expectations but cut FY25 revenue and capex guidance amid supply chain delays and customer project deferrals.
- NBIS (−7.1%) missed on revenue and margins; analysts flagged rising cash burn and new equity issuance plans.
- RGTI (−5.1%) weaker after low Q3 revenue; analysts cited slow U.S. government contract approvals.
- BBAI (+6.1%) gained on positive takeaways from its Ask Sage acquisition and growing biometric demand.
Communication Services
- META pressured after Chief AI Scientist Yann LeCun announced departure to focus on a startup.
- PSKY (+9.8%) jumped on better OIBDA guidance and improved synergy targets, despite softer revenue.
- ETOR (+9.3%) upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank on attractive valuation and strong product pipeline.
Consumer Discretionary
- REAL (+38.1%) surged on a strong Q3 beat and raised FY guidance; GMV and order growth exceeded expectations.
- PZZA (−3.9%) reversed Monday’s gains after reports of buyout talks proved false.
- CART (+5.0%) upgraded to Outperform at BMO after a solid Q3 and improved grocery delivery outlook.
- EL (+1.4%) upgraded to Buy at Argus; analysts cited product innovation momentum.
Consumer Staples
- Food and beverage stocks outperformed broadly on defensive rotation.
- Grocers and HPCs saw gains as investors rotated into stable cash-flow sectors.
Healthcare
- Managed care rebounded after Monday’s weakness despite ACA-related overhang.
- Pharma and biotech led the market:
- COGT extended gains following its recent phase 3 oncology success.
- CNC and ELV both recovered modestly after prior-session declines.
Financials
- PH (+5%) to acquire Filtration Group for $9.25B, expanding industrial filtration footprint.
- FDX (+5.5%) raised Q2 profit outlook at Baird conference, citing structural cost cuts.
- HOOD (+4.2%) added after reports of a fund offering shares in private AI companies.
Industrials
- Airlines and trucking lagged amid continued government flight restrictions.
- FDX led transport peers on upbeat profit guidance.
Energy & Materials
- OXY (+5.0%) strong on cost control and production upside.
- CENX (−13.7%) fell after large secondary block sale.
- Materials sector supported by strength in copper and aluminum, and M&A optimism.
Real Estate & Utilities
- Both sectors modestly higher as yields stayed flat during the Treasury holiday. REITs and utilities saw some dip-buying after recent underperformance.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday November 12th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday November 12th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
