November 18, 2025
S&P futures are down 0.3% Tuesday morning after U.S. equities extended their pullback on Monday, with the S&P 500 falling for a third straight session and breaking below its 50-day moving average for the first time in 138 trading days. Big tech, AI, retail favorites, and most-shorted names were broadly weaker, while regional banks, PE, tech hardware, semis, software, builders, airlines, and autos also lagged. Healthcare continued to attract rotation flows. Asian markets sold off sharply (Japan and South Korea both down over 3%), and Europe is off more than 1%. Treasuries are firmer with the curve steepening. Dollar little changed. Gold −0.8%, bitcoin futures −0.6%, and WTI crude −0.1%.
Risk sentiment remains pressured by technical deterioration, including short-term unwind triggers for stretched systematic longs. No major narrative shift, but the market continues to grapple with the same headwinds: AI skepticism (cash burn, leverage, ROI, circularity), fading expectations for a December rate cut, softening labor-market signals, and increasing signs of consumer bifurcation.
On the macro calendar, ADP weekly employment data, August durable goods orders, and the November NAHB housing index are due this morning. Another packed day of Fedspeak features Barr, Barkin, and Logan. Later this week brings the FOMC minutes (Wed), the delayed September NFP (Thu), and flash PMIs (Fri).
In corporate news, HD missed Q3 expectations, citing fewer storms and no improvement in demand. AS jumped on a beat and raise. AAPL reportedly saw iPhone China sales reach a 25% market share—the highest since 2022. AKZA and AXTA agreed to merge in an all-stock deal to form a ~$17B global paints leader. BIDU posted better-than-expected Q3 results with cloud strength offsetting softer search revenue. Activist Elliott has reportedly built a large stake in B. ON announced $200–300M in impairment and accelerated depreciation charges tied to restructuring. Databricks is reportedly seeking new funding at a valuation above $130B.
U.S. equities finished lower on Monday (Dow -1.18%, S&P 500 -0.92%, Nasdaq -0.84%, Russell 2000 -1.96%), marking a third straight decline and pushing the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq below their 50-day moving averages. Major thematic laggards again included AI adopters, most-shorted names, retail favorites, and a range of cyclical pockets. The move came ahead of a dense macro week featuring NVDA earnings, a heavy retail earnings slate, the FOMC minutes, a full Fedspeak barrage, and the long-delayed September NFP and flash PMIs. Recent stabilization following last week’s momentum unwind remains fragile, with several desks warning of additional systematic-selling triggers nearby.
Treasuries were modestly firmer (yields −1–2 bp), the dollar index +0.3%, gold −0.5%, bitcoin −2.4% (lows below $92K), and WTI crude −0.3%. Tech sentiment remained shaky amid AAPL succession reports, a high bar into NVDA results, China-based AI competition, and a Morgan Stanley hardware downgrade, though GOOGL strength on Berkshire’s $4B stake provided a partial offset.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey surprised sharply to the upside at 18.7, the best reading since last November, with improving employment and cooling price indices. However, forward business-conditions indicators weakened. August construction spending rose 0.2% m/m. On the policy front, Governor Waller reaffirmed support for a December cut, while Jefferson flagged labor-market risks but warned against rushing toward neutral. Williams and Kashkari avoided new policy guidance. Markets now look ahead to FOMC minutes (Wed), September NFP (Thu), and flash PMIs (Fri), with agencies expected to update their delayed-data schedules.
Sector Highlights
Sector dispersion was wide. Communication Services led (+1.13%) on GOOGL strength and China tech gains. Utilities, Real Estate, Staples, and Discretionary posted modest gains, while Healthcare was slightly positive. Cyclicals lagged sharply, with Financials (−1.93%), Energy (−1.88%), Materials (−1.53%), Tech (−1.43%), and Industrials (−1.03%) under pressure—reflecting weakness in banks, oil majors, hardware, semis, and capital-intensive industries.
Communication Services
- GOOGL +3.1%: Boosted by BRK.B’s new $4.3B stake and rising anticipation for the Gemini 3.0 AI model.
- DIS: Resolved its YouTube carriage standoff, restoring content distribution.
- WPP +6.8%: Weekend reports indicate interest from Havas and several private-equity firms.
Information Technology
- AAPL −1.8%: FT reported accelerated CEO succession planning with Tim Cook potentially stepping down next year.
- DELL −8.4%, HPE −7.0%, HPQ −6.8%: Morgan Stanley downgraded hardware names on weakening non-AI demand and rising memory costs; AI-server mix expected to compress margins.
- NET −4.0%: Agreed to acquire AI platform Replicate (terms undisclosed).
- CWAN: Higher on reports the company is exploring a go-private transaction.
- QUBT +8.5%: Q3 beat with revenue up 280% y/y; announced new collaboration with POET Technologies.
Healthcare
- JAZZ +20.6%: Strong Phase 3 HERIZON-GEA-01 results showing PFS and OS benefits over standard-of-care therapy.
- JNJ: To acquire Halda Therapeutics for $3.05B in cash.
- NVO: Cut cash-pay prices for obesity drugs by 30%.
- AVDL +22.5%: Received an unsolicited $23/share offer from Lundbeck, topping prior ALKS indication.
Financials
- Banks/Insurance broadly weaker, particularly regionals and life insurers, amid risk-off flows and weak factor performance.
- SINCLAIR: Built an ~8% stake in E.W. Scripps, positioning for a potential acquisition.
Consumer Discretionary
- MODG: In talks to sell Topgolf to Leonard Green for ~$1B.
- COCO +3.6%: Upgraded at BofA; tariff removals on coconut water expected to ease ~$37.5M in headwinds.
- ROCK −20.3%: Announced $1.3B acquisition of OmniMax; EPS accretive but funded via leverage.
- ARMK −5.2%: Missed earnings; FY26 EPS midpoint below consensus despite strong retention.
Consumer Staples
- BABA +2.5%: Launched new Qwen consumer AI app; builds on last week’s reported overhaul to a more agentic AI ecosystem.
Industrials
- ESLT +6.4%: Secured a $2.3B international defense contract.
- Rio Tinto adding surcharges on U.S.-bound aluminum as supply tightens.
- Ford: Struck deal to sell used vehicles via Amazon.
Energy & Materials
- Canadian oil sands output hit a record high; growth expected to accelerate with Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.
- Rio Tinto raising surcharges on aluminum shipments amid strong U.S. demand.
Real Estate / Other
- SEE −3.1%: Confirmed sale to CD&R for $10.3B; deal slightly below Friday’s close after a large pre-announcement rally.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday November 18th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday November 18th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
