November 26, 2025
S&P futures are up 0.3% in Wednesday morning trading after U.S. equities posted a third straight gain on Tuesday, bringing the S&P’s three-day advance to nearly +3.5%. Breadth continued to improve with equal-weight outperforming by more than 50 bp. Asian markets were mostly higher with Japan up nearly 2%, while Europe is up ~0.5%. Treasuries are little changed, the dollar is up 0.1%, gold is up 0.7%, Bitcoin is off 0.6%, and WTI crude is down 0.6%.
Macro drivers remain fairly muted ahead of Thursday’s U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The recent equity bounce remains the dominant storyline, driven by a sharp rise in December rate-cut expectations (now >80%) following dovish Fedspeak and mixed data. AI headlines continue to contribute to choppy leadership and more complicated narrative dynamics. Seasonality, cleaner positioning, and expectations for a 1H26 fiscal impulse remain key tailwinds, while bearish commentary centers on AI bubble fears and signs of labor-market/consumer softening.
Today’s U.S. calendar includes initial and continuing claims, September durable goods, and the Fed Beige Book this afternoon. Treasury auctions $44B in 7-year notes. Markets are closed Thursday; no data Friday. The Fed enters its blackout period this weekend ahead of the Dec 10 FOMC. Looking ahead to the week of Dec 1: ISM manufacturing (Mon), ISM services + ADP payrolls (Wed), Challenger job cuts (Thu), and PCE + Michigan sentiment (Fri).
Company highlights
- DELL: Higher post-earnings on strong AI-server momentum, raised guidance, and better margins despite mix shift.
- ADSK: Beat expectations, highlighted AECO strength; guided above with stable macro backdrop.
- WDAY: Fiscal Q3 mostly ahead with accelerating cRPO, though FY guide unchanged; noted headwinds in higher ed and limited margin upside.
- ZS: Beat but underwhelmed; scrutiny on Red Canary contribution and high expectations after 60%+ YTD rally.
- HPQ: Fiscal Q4 solid, but Q1 and FY26 guidance light; unveiled $1B savings plan through FY28.
- NTNX: Down sharply after surprise miss and 3% cut to FY26 guidance; management emphasized timing issues.
- NTAP: Fiscal Q2 beat and raised FY outlook.
- AMBA: Pressured despite revenue beat, better sales guidance, and upbeat AI commentary; GM guide slightly soft.
- URBN: Strong beat with UO comps ~3× consensus, solid Anthro trends, and better GMs.
- WOOF: Comps softer than expected but margins, EBITDA, and guide all beat.
U.S. equities finished higher on Tuesday (Dow +1.43%, S&P 500 +0.91%, Nasdaq +0.67%, Russell 2000 +2.14%), closing near session highs as the S&P 500 extended its rebound to a third straight day. The move was supported by a lower-rate backdrop, ongoing repricing of December easing odds (now above 80%), and fresh speculation that former CEA Director Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to replace Powell as Fed Chair. Treasuries were firmer with mild curve steepening (2–4 bp lower at the short end). The dollar fell 0.3%. Gold rose 1.1%. Bitcoin fell 2% following Monday’s sharp rebound, while WTI crude fell 1.5% amid volatility tied to Ukraine peace-plan headlines.
Macro sentiment remained dominated by AI-related upheaval, with Google’s expanding TPU strategy adding to competitive pressure on NVDA and AMD. Consumer confidence disappointed sharply at 88.7 (vs. 93.3 consensus), retail sales were soft with a decline in the control group, and core PPI undershot expectations at +0.1% m/m. Pending home sales surprised to the upside (+1.9%). ADP data pointed to continued labor-market cooling. Fed Governor Miran reiterated that “big rate cuts” are still needed, and Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled a Fed Chair announcement could come before Christmas. The 5-year note auction tailed modestly. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s data—initial jobless claims, continuing claims, and delayed September durable goods—plus the afternoon release of the Beige Book.
Sector Highlights
Sector gains were broad, led by Healthcare (+2.16%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.92%), and Communication Services (+1.63%), supported by strong retail earnings and continued rotation into healthcare and managed care. Consumer Staples (+1.49%), Industrials (+1.25%), Materials (+1.22%), and Financials (+1.19%) also posted solid advances amid improving sentiment around domestic demand and rate-cut expectations. Laggards included Energy (-0.68%), weighed down by crude volatility; Utilities (-0.35%) and Tech (+0.03%), where weakness in semis and AI enablers offset strength in megacap platforms; and Real Estate (+0.74%), which trailed the market despite lower yields.
Information Technology
- NVDA: Down on concerns Google’s plan to sell/rent TPUs to Meta could erode Nvidia’s AI market share (~10% of annual revenue exposure).
- SYM: +39.4% on FQ4 beat and new Medline deployments; guidance strong.
- KEYS: +10.0% on broad demand recovery, record AD&G orders, and strong Q1 guidance.
- ZM: +9.9% after beat/raise, improved churn/retention trends, and a $1B buyback.
- A (Agilent): Mixed results—revenue beat but guidance light; Life Sciences strength.
- SMTC: Underperformed as GM guide overshadowed improving data-center demand.
- ORCL: -1.6% on downgrade; concerns over capex levels and long-term margin pressure.
- AMAT: +5.0% on upgrade tied to bullish DRAM and WFE spending outlook.
- SNDK: Higher following S&P 500 inclusion announcement.
Communication Services
- GOOGL: +6.3% on Gemini 3 momentum and reports of TPU sales/rentals to Meta.
- META: Beneficiary of broader AI infrastructure access via Google negotiations.
- ZETA: +3.2% after raising FY25–26 revenue and EBITDA guidance; PT raised.
- GRND: -12.2% after board rejected take-private proposal.
Consumer Discretionary
- KSS: +42.5% on earnings beat, raised guidance, and CEO appointment.
- ANF: +37.5% after strong Q3 beat and guidance raise.
- BBY: +5.3% on beat; computing and mobile categories strong.
- EAT: +6.7% on upgrade citing improved cost backdrop and younger customer growth.
- BURL: -12.2% on comp miss and cautious Q4 guide.
- GAP (from Monday session): Continued momentum following strong earnings.
Consumer Staples
- SJM: -3.7% as margins disappointed and guidance narrowed downward.
- POST (contextual): Mixed results tied to category weakness.
Healthcare
- NVO: +4.7% on positive Phase 2 amycretin trial results.
- WWD: +12.4% on strong FQ4 results and commercial aftermarket strength.
- MRK (prior session upgrade): Continued support from pipeline catalysts.
Financials
- FIBK: +4.5% on S&P SmallCap 600 inclusion.
- BLFY (yesterday): Large premium buyout by FULT highlighted regional-bank rotation.
- ZETA and UPWK benefitted from index changes.
Industrials
- AMTM (Amentum): +18.3% on beat and strong bookings (1.6x book-to-bill).
- COHR: -2.0% after Bain sold 7.5M shares in block trade.
Materials
- MP: +6.8% on upgrade tied to U.S. rare-earths strategy.
- Containerboard names: Benefited from cyclical upside sentiment (no major negatives reported).
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday November 26th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday November 26th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
