March 12, 2025
S&P 500 futures are up 0.6% after another choppy session Tuesday, where stocks failed to sustain multiple rebound attempts. The S&P remains 9.3% off its February 19 record close, with cyclicals underperforming, while Big Tech and semis showed relative strength. European and Asian markets mostly higher overnight. Treasuries little changed, with slight weakness at the front end of the curve. Dollar index up 0.1%, while gold is flat. Bitcoin futures down 1%. WTI crude up 1.2%.
Markets are attempting to bounce amid oversold conditions, though Trump’s trade policies remain a key overhang. The White House sent mixed signals on tariffs, with Trump imposing a 25% duty on Canadian steel and aluminum overnight, prompting the EU to announce countermeasures on €26B of U.S. goods. Meanwhile, China summoned Walmart executives over reports it asked suppliers to absorb tariff costs. Elsewhere, Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire proposal, pending Moscow’s approval.
Investors await February CPI data at 8:30 AM ET, with core inflation expected at 0.3% m/m and 3.2% y/y. The Treasury’s $54B 10-year note auction is in focus, while the Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, marking its seventh-straight cut.
Corporate News
- TSMC (TSM) reportedly pitched Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) on a joint venture to operate Intel (INTC) fabs.
- Tesla (TSLA) delivery outlook under pressure, as Evercore ISI cut its full-year vehicle delivery forecast.
- Walmart (WMT) executives summoned by China’s Ministry of Commerce over price-cut demands on suppliers.
- Uber (UBER) scrapped its plan to buy Delivery Hero’s Foodpanda business.
- Casey’s (CASY) beat Q3 estimates and raised its FY EBITDA forecast.
- Toll Brothers (TOL) raised its dividend by 9%.
- Cadre Holdings (CDRE) missed estimates, issued weaker guidance.
- Stitch Fix (SFIX) surged after forecasting a return to revenue growth.
- Post-market reports: Adobe (ADBE), Crown Castle (CCI), UiPath (PATH), SentinelOne (S), and American Eagle (AEO)
U.S. equities ended mostly lower on Tuesday after a choppy session, with the S&P 500 (-0.76%) and Nasdaq (-0.18%) extending recent declines, while the Dow (-1.14%) underperformed. The Russell 2000 (+0.22%) managed a small gain. Stocks failed to hold an afternoon bounce, as broad negative sentiment and policy uncertainty kept rallies in check. The S&P is now down 9.3% from its February 19 record close.
Big Tech saw a slight rebound, with Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) leading gains, while industrials, healthcare, consumer staples, and materials underperformed. Semiconductors, software, industrial metals, and managed care stocks were among the day’s relative outperformers, while transportation, retail (Kohl’s), airlines, hospitals, telecom (Verizon), and food companies lagged.
In macro developments, trade tensions escalated as Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, bringing total duties on the metals to 50%. Trump later signaled a possible reconsideration after Ontario Premier Doug Ford agreed to suspend a 25% electricity surcharge on U.S. exports. Canada’s incoming PM Mark Carney pledged “maximum impact” retaliation in response. Markets remain concerned that worsening trade relations could impact economic growth, with Goldman Sachs lowering its 2025 U.S. GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.4% due to trade policy concerns.
The White House continued to downplay market weakness, describing it as a reflection of investor emotion rather than economic fundamentals. Officials pointed to corporate optimism and ongoing CEO discussions with Trump, though concerns persist that the “Trump put” may be set much lower than previously expected.
On the economic front, NFIB small business optimism fell to 100.7 (-2.1 pts) in February, though it remained above the 51-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose to 104, the second-highest level on record, reflecting growing concerns over policy risks and economic conditions. January JOLTS job openings came in at 7.74M, slightly above consensus (7.70M), though December was revised lower.
Treasuries weakened, with a mild steepening in the yield curve. The dollar index fell 0.5%, while gold (+0.7%) and Bitcoin futures (+5.8%) rebounded from Monday’s sharp declines. WTI crude settled up 0.3% but pulled back from its highs.
Looking ahead, investors are focused on Wednesday’s February CPI report, followed by PPI and jobless claims on Thursday, and consumer sentiment data on Friday. The Treasury will also hold $38B in 10-year note auctions on Wednesday and $22B in 30-year bond auctions on Thursday.
Sector Performance & Notable Company News
Technology (+0.38%)
- Oracle (ORCL, -3.1%): Q3 EPS and revenue missed expectations, while Q4 guidance also came in below consensus. However, AI-related RPO growth remained strong, though constrained by capacity limitations.
- Ciena (CIEN, -2.4%): Q1 EPS and revenue exceeded expectations, with strong customer growth in adaptive IP and Optical. However, management flagged tariff uncertainties as a potential headwind.
Communication Services (+0.71%)
- Reddit (RDDT, +14.4%): Upgraded by Loop Capital, which noted the stock’s 50% decline over the past month has been excessive. Analysts highlighted ARPU growth potential and improved ad tools as key tailwinds.
- Verizon (VZ, -6.6%): Warned of a challenging Q1 competitive environment, noting that gross additions are expected to be soft.
Consumer Discretionary (+0.26%)
- Vail Resorts (MTN, +7.7%): Q2 EBITDA topped expectations, with strong visitation and expense control. Management flagged a shift in demand toward Spring travel.
- Kohl’s (KSS, -24.1%): Q4 earnings beat due to tax benefits, but net sales and comps were in line. FY25 guidance was weak, with net sales, comps, and EPS all missing estimates. The company cut its dividend by 75%, and analysts expressed concerns over weak consumer demand.
Consumer Staples (-1.18%)
- Freshpet (FRPT, -1.5%): Downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer, citing weaker guidance and subdued management commentary.
Industrials (-1.54%)
- Southwest Airlines (LUV, +8.3%): Lowered Q1 RASM guidance due to reduced government travel and California wildfire disruptions, but accelerated its $2.5B share buyback and announced plans to implement baggage fees for most customers.
- Delta (DAL, -7.3%): Issued a negative Q1 preannouncement, cutting revenue growth expectations to +3-4% from prior +7-9%, citing a drop in consumer and corporate confidence.
- JetBlue (JBLU, +4.2%): Lowered Q1 ASM guidance midpoint but maintained RASM guidance, noting weather disruptions and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, demand for peak travel periods remains solid.
- Ferguson Enterprises (FERG, -5.2%): Revenue slightly ahead, but EBITDA and EPS missed expectations. Management reaffirmed FY25 revenue growth guidance but cut operating margin forecasts, citing commodity deflation and weaker end markets.
Healthcare (-1.12%)
- Arvinas (ARVN, -52.7%): Phase 3 VERITAC-2 trial met primary endpoint in ESR1-mutant breast cancer but failed to show a statistically significant PFS improvement in the broader population, leading to a steep selloff.
- Asana (ASAN, -24.2%): Q4 results met expectations, with margin and billings slightly ahead, but Q1 and FY26 revenue guidance disappointed. CEO Dustin Moskovitz announced plans to step down, raising execution risk concerns.
Financials (-0.86%)
- Paymentus Holdings (PAY, +24.6%): Q4 results exceeded expectations, and Q1 and FY25 guidance midpoints were above consensus. Management highlighted a strong backlog and expanding e-payments adoption.
Energy (-0.96%)
- TXNM Energy (TXNM, +6.9%): Reportedly exploring a sale after receiving takeover interest. Upgraded at Mizuho, citing strong growth prospects and regulatory improvements.
Geopolitics & Trade
- U.S. & Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, pending Russian approval. The U.S. will resume intelligence sharing with Kyiv.
- Trump administration is in early talks with China for a potential leaders’ summit in June.
- Russia’s crude oil exports surged, despite U.S. sanctions
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday March 12th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday March 12th, 2025
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
