December 1, 2025
S&P futures are down 0.5% after U.S. equities extended their post-holiday rebound on Friday, marking a fifth straight gain and pushing the S&P 500 to a marginally positive finish for November despite a mid-month 4.5% drawdown. The index has now risen for seven consecutive months. Asian trading was mixed, with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan lagging while Greater China outperformed. Europe opened softer, down ~0.4%.
Treasuries are weaker with the long end up 3–4 bp. Gold is up 0.9%, Bitcoin futures are down 4.8%, and WTI crude is up 1.7%. Market attention remains on rising BoJ tightening expectations—putting upward pressure on JGB yields—and renewed Bitcoin selling. Futures softness also follows last week’s sharp bounce driven by dovish comments from the Fed’s Williams, which pushed December easing odds above 80%. Supportive narratives remain: cleaner positioning, favorable seasonality, elevated retail activity, improving earnings revisions, expectations for the end of QT, and possible Fed balance-sheet expansion alongside fiscal stimulus from OBBBA.
Today’s focus is ISM Manufacturing, expected to tick up to 49.0 from 48.7. The rest of the week brings ISM Services and ADP (Wed), jobless claims + Challenger (Thu), and September PCE, income/spending, and Michigan sentiment (Fri). The Fed is now in its quiet period ahead of the December 10 FOMC meeting.
Stock Highlights
- MRVL and CRWD report earnings Tuesday.
- CRM, SNOW, M, and DLTR report Wednesday.
- KR, DG, and HPE report Thursday.
- UNH to sell the last portion of its South American business for $1B.
- MU reportedly investing $9.5B+ to build a high-bandwidth memory (HBM) plant in Japan.
- Disney’s “Zootopia 2” generated nearly $160M in domestic box-office sales over the holiday weekend.
- A financial-press piece highlighted divisions between LULU’s founder/largest shareholder and the company’s CEO.
U.S. equities finished higher in Friday’s holiday-shortened session (Dow +0.61% · S&P 500 +0.54% · Nasdaq +0.65% · Russell 2000 +0.58%), extending gains for a fifth straight day and capping one of the strongest weeks since early autumn. The macro narrative remained dominated by shifting expectations around December Fed policy. With the central bank entering its pre-FOMC quiet period this weekend, markets continued to price a meaningfully higher probability of a December interest-rate cut, supported by softer inflation prints earlier in the month and more benign financial conditions. Treasury yields drifted higher by 3–4 bp on the day but remain well below last week’s highs, helping keep equity risk sentiment constructive.
Economic data was absent Friday, but investors are preparing for an eventful week ahead: ISM Manufacturing (Mon), ISM Services and ADP Payrolls (Wed), Challenger Job Cuts (Thu), and the critical PCE inflation print plus Michigan Sentiment (Fri). With the Fed emphasizing data-dependency, the coming slate will likely drive the final policy narrative into the December 10 FOMC decision.
Broader macro positioning also played a role in this week’s rebound. The nearly 5% pullback in the S&P 500 earlier in November had unwound extended momentum, reducing leverage and creating cleaner conditions for buyers to step back in. Despite notable rotations below the surface — particularly in high-short-interest and AI-linked names — the underlying fundamental narrative for U.S. equities remained largely intact.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance reflected a broad risk-on appetite, with cyclical and commodity-linked areas leading the tape. Energy (+1.32%) was the strongest performer, lifted by higher crude and strong flows into E&Ps and oil services. Consumer Discretionary (+0.90%) and Communication Services (+0.73%) rode the strength in retail-linked names and streaming. Financials (+0.71%), Industrials (+0.57%), and Staples (+0.56%) also posted constructive gains.
On the softer side, Healthcare (-0.50%) was the only sector in the red, followed by REITs (+0.39%) which lagged due to rising yields. Materials (+0.51%) and Technology (+0.52%) were modestly positive, supported by semis and metals but tempered by mixed performance in software and mega-cap tech
Eco Data Releases | Monday December 1st, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday December 1st, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
