December 7, 2025
S&P futures are up 0.1% in Monday premarket trading after Friday’s mostly higher session left the S&P 500 just below its late-October record close. Major indices ended the week with sub-1% gains. Asian markets were mixed while Europe opened modestly higher. Treasuries are slightly weaker with yields up 1–2 bp, the dollar is flat, gold is down 0.3%, Bitcoin futures are up 3.1%, and WTI crude is down 0.9% after briefly reclaiming $60 on Friday.
The market is entering a quiet session ahead of several major catalysts. The December FOMC meeting on Wednesday remains the dominant event, with futures pricing an ~87% probability of a 25 bp cut, though multiple previews warn of a potential “hawkish cut” if the Fed tightens forward guidance or signals a higher threshold for further easing. The SEP may show mild improvements in unemployment and inflation, while Powell’s comments will be dissected for whether a January pause is likely. AI-linked earnings (ORCL Wednesday, AVGO Thursday) are another major focus. Broader support for the recent rally includes positive seasonality, volatility compression, disinflation progress, consumer resilience, and expectations for a more dovish 2026 Fed under a probable Hassett appointment. However, headwinds persist from softening labor data, a bifurcated consumer, affordability issues, ongoing AI disruption, and tariff impacts heading into next year.
Data today includes the NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey, followed by Tuesday’s JOLTS job-openings report and the NFIB small-business index. Treasury issuance begins with $67B in 3-year notes as part of $119B in supply this week. Headlines remain fairly muted: USTR Greer said China is complying with the current trade agreement, and press reporting continues to examine the potential implications of a forthcoming Supreme Court IEEPA ruling. Weekend AI coverage highlighted improving market sentiment on valuation grounds and momentum behind Google’s Gemini, which is now outpacing ChatGPT on several engagement metrics.
- NFLX / WBD — Trump raised antitrust concerns about Netflix’s planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.
- MSFT — Reportedly exploring shifting its custom-chip production from Broadcom (AVGO) to Marvell (MRVL).
- IBM — In talks to acquire Confluent (CFLT) for around $11B.
- LLY — Mounjaro to be added to China’s national health-insurance program starting in 2026.
- META — Delaying release of its “Phoenix” AR glasses to 2027 (from 2H26).
- LITE — Announced extension of its strategic agreement with IQE (UK).
- WHR — $1B agreement to sell its India unit collapsed.
- S&P Index Changes — CVNA, CRH, FIX to join the S&P 500, replacing LKQ, SOLS, and MHK.
U.S. equities ended a quiet Friday session mostly higher (Dow +0.22% · S&P 500 +0.19% · Nasdaq +0.31% · Russell 2000 –0.38%), though all major indices finished below intraday highs. The S&P 500 posted its third straight gain but remained just under its late-October record, while small caps lagged after outperforming earlier in the week. Trading volume was light, consistent with a market still waiting for next week’s catalysts: the December FOMC decision, AVGO and ORCL earnings, and OpenAI’s new model release.
The economic data supported the themes of a resilient consumer and steady disinflation. Preliminary December Michigan sentiment improved to 53.3, and both 1-year and long-run inflation expectations fell to 11-month lows. September core PCE rose 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y, both in line with expectations. The figures did little to change rate-cut probabilities, with markets still pricing an ~87% chance of a 25 bp cut on December 10. Treasuries weakened with yields up 3–4 bp, the dollar was little changed, gold finished flat, Bitcoin fell 3.4%, and WTI crude rose 0.7% to reclaim the $60 level.
The broader narrative continues to revolve around declining volatility, a fading CTA headwind, persistent strength in holiday spending, labor-market bifurcation, accelerating AI-related disruption, and the week’s headline M&A developments.
Sector Highlights
Leadership rotated toward more growth-oriented areas, with Communication Services (+0.95%), Tech (+0.45%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.44%) topping the session on M&A momentum, strong software prints, and improving holiday-spending sentiment. Defensive and rate-sensitive groups lagged, including Utilities (–0.98%), Energy (–0.43%), Healthcare (–0.41%), and Materials (–0.39%). Industrials, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Financials were modestly weaker or near flat as the market continued to trade without a strong macro catalyst.
Information Technology
- RBRK +22.5%: Another broad beat-and-raise; strength across enterprise, subscription ARR, and cyber-resilience demand.
- IOT +11.1%: Beat on EPS/FCF/ARR/revenue; NNARR +24% y/y; Q4 and FY guidance above consensus.
- TTAN +10.5%: Big beat and raised outlook; strong enterprise traction, Commercial momentum, Pro attach rates, and AI-driven demand.
- DOCU –7.6%: Q3 ahead, though beat aided by early renewals; investors focused on ongoing growth concerns.
- S –14.4%: Beat on Q3 metrics but cut Q4 outlook; CFO transition weighed on sentiment.
- COO +5.7%: EPS/revenue beat; FY26 EPS guidance raised; strategic review overshadowed quarter.
- U +3.7%: Upgraded to Overweight at Wells Fargo on improved growth outlook.
- ITT –1.3%: Announced $4.775B acquisition of SPX FLOW.
Communication Services
- WBD +6.3%: Agreed to be acquired by NFLX for $27.75 per share in an $82.7B cash-and-stock deal; expected to close in 12–18 months.
- NFLX –2.9%: Confirmed acquisition; shares slipped modestly on deal terms.
- PSKY –9.8%: Considering taking its competing WBD offer directly to shareholders.
- META: Continued positive sentiment following Thursday’s reports of aggressive metaverse budget cuts.
Consumer Discretionary
- ULTA +12.7%: Strong Q3 with beats across comps, EPS, revenue; margins exceeded expectations; guidance raised.
- VSCO: Loss narrower than expected; FY guidance raised.
- LUV: Cut FY25 EBIT outlook due to shutdown impacts and fuel costs; noted bookings have normalized.
Consumer Staples
- HRL +3.7%: Positive earnings takeaways on stability in core categories.
- No major negative surprises beyond expected retail-holiday bifurcation themes.
Healthcare
- PRAX +30.5%: Positive Phase 2 data for relutrigine; FDA pre-NDA meeting completed.
- HUM +1.9%: Upgraded to Buy at Jefferies on Medicare Advantage strength.
- Biotech and Medicaid MCOs were broader laggards.
Industrials
- AGX –12.0%: Q3 revenue missed; timing/mix issues and high expectations weighed after a strong YTD run.
- A&D names broadly softer; auto parts and homebuilders also lagged.
Financials
- Few company-specific drivers; insurers underperformed.
- Market tone stable with modest rate-driven weakness.
Materials
- Copper and aluminum plays outperformed earlier but faded late; steel stocks declined.
Energy
- WTI back above $60 lifted select E&Ps; otherwise sector activity was quiet.
Real Estate
- Flattening yield curve provided little help; sector finished near unchanged.
Eco Data Releases | Monday December 7th, 2025
No Releases Today
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday December 7th, 2025
No Constituents Report Today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
