December 15, 2025
S&P futures are up 0.5% after Friday’s broad selloff that pushed the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 down more than 1%. Last week was mixed, with tech and momentum pressured amid renewed AI scrutiny, while cyclicals benefited from rotation. Asian markets were weaker overnight (South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong all down >1%), while Europe is higher by ~0.6%. Treasuries are firmer with yields down ~2 bp, the dollar is slightly lower on yen strength ahead of a likely BoJ hike, gold is up 1%, bitcoin is off 0.4%, and WTI is little changed.
It’s a quiet start to the final full trading week of 2025, with focus shifting to a heavy macro and earnings calendar. Key catalysts include the November employment report (Tuesday), Micron earnings (Wednesday after the close), and November CPI (Thursday). Fed chair uncertainty persists after Trump injected late-week ambiguity between Warsh and Hassett (with Hassett still viewed as the front-runner). Overseas, soft China activity data and rising expectations for BoJ tightening remain in focus. AI valuation and credit-risk scrutiny continues, alongside ongoing cyclical rotation, particularly strength in transports.
Economic Calendar Highlights
- Today: Empire State manufacturing survey; NAHB housing market index; remarks from Fed’s Miran and Williams
- Tuesday: November employment report; October retail sales; December flash PMIs
- Thursday: November CPI; Philly Fed manufacturing
- Friday: Existing home sales; final University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations
Company-Specific News
- SpaceX: Proceeding with an insider share sale valuing the company near $800B; targeting a potential $1.5T valuation in a future IPO.
- Intel (INTC): Reportedly in advanced talks to acquire SambaNova Systems for roughly $1.6B, including debt.
- ServiceNow (NOW): Said to be in advanced discussions to acquire cybersecurity firm Armis in a deal valued up to $7B.
- Coca-Cola (KO): Reportedly in talks with TDR Capital to salvage or restructure the Costa Coffee transaction.
- iRobot (IRBT): Going private through a court-supervised Chapter 11 process.
- Micron (MU): High-profile earnings report due Wednesday after the close, a key read-through for the memory and AI hardware space.
- Upcoming Earnings Watch: Lennar (LEN) Tuesday; General Mills (GIS) and JetBlue (JBLU) Wednesday; FedEx (FDX), CarMax (KMX), and Nike (NKE) Thursday; Conagra (CAG) and Paychex (PAYX) Friday.
U.S. equities finished lower on Friday (Dow -0.51%, S&P 500 -1.07%, Nasdaq -1.69%, Russell 2000 -1.51%), capping a volatile week that saw tech and AI-linked names lead the downside and leave both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq with weekly declines. Treasuries sold off with a bear steepening bias, pushing long-end yields up 5–6 bp, while the dollar was little changed after Thursday’s sharp pullback. Gold extended its rebound, rising 0.4% following a 2%+ gain the prior session. Bitcoin fell 1.7%, and WTI crude slipped 0.3%.
Market focus remained on AI dispersion and disruption, with recent earnings from Oracle and Broadcom reinforcing concerns around infrastructure economics, ROI, funding intensity, and vendor concentration—even as end-demand signals remain strong. Unlike earlier in the week, rotational dynamics failed to provide much downside cushion, despite the broader cyclical leadership trend that followed the December FOMC.
There were no economic data releases, but heavy post-FOMC Fed commentary shaped sentiment. Goolsbee reiterated optimism for meaningful rate cuts in 2026, while Schmid and Hammack emphasized inflation risks remaining closer to 3%. Fed chair succession headlines also lingered, with Trump indicating finalists include Warsh and Hassett and reiterating his desire for consultation on rate decisions. Attention now shifts to a heavy macro week ahead, highlighted by November NFP (Dec 16) and November CPI (Dec 18).
Sector Highlights
Sector performance underscored the risk-off, tech-led drawdown. Technology was the clear underperformer (-2.87%), reflecting pressure on AI enablers and software. Defensive and value-oriented groups held up better, with Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and Materials modestly outperforming, while cyclicals such as Industrials, Financials, and Energy finished mixed to lower. The session marked a pause in the recent cyclical rotation that had followed the December FOMC, highlighting the market’s growing sensitivity to AI earnings execution and valuation discipline.
Information Technology
- Broadcom (AVGO) fell sharply despite a fiscal Q4 beat, upside Q1 guide, a new Anthropic order, and a fifth hyperscaler customer; focus remained on a high valuation bar, six-quarter AI backlog disclosure, and no FY26 guide increase.
- Oracle (ORCL) remained under pressure amid lingering AI infrastructure concerns; the company denied reports of OpenAI datacenter delays, stating all milestones remain on track.
- Netskope (NTSK) sold off post-IPO despite solid Q3 results and upside Q4 guidance, with some scrutiny around margins after a strong month-to-date run.
- Veeva (VEEV) downgraded on competitive pressure concerns tied to CRM.
- Ciena (CIEN) weakened on valuation-driven downgrade following outsized YTD gains.
Communication Services
- Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) gained modestly as press reports suggested Paramount Skydance may raise its hostile bid, with speculation of a potential Netflix countermove.
- Roblox (RBLX) declined following a downgrade citing engagement and bookings headwinds.
Consumer Discretionary
- Lululemon (LULU) rose on a “better-than-feared” quarter, raised full-year guidance, announced a $1B buyback, and benefited from positive reaction to an upcoming CEO transition.
- Restoration Hardware (RH) gained despite cutting FY guidance, with analysts pointing to well-telegraphed headwinds, improving industry trends, and a potential 2026 inflection.
- Tilray (TLRY) surged after reports Trump may push to loosen federal marijuana restrictions.
Consumer Staples
- Costco (COST) posted a modest Q1 EPS beat, though analysts flagged tougher compares, rising labor costs, and slightly softer renewal trends.
Healthcare
- Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) advanced following an upgrade citing 2026 pipeline catalysts and royalty growth.
- Managed care stocks broadly outperformed amid defensive positioning.
Industrials
- Quanex (NX) jumped after a strong earnings beat and higher expected synergies from the Tyman acquisition.
- GE Aerospace (GE) rose on a Citi initiation highlighting long-term megatrend exposure.
- Fermi (FRMI) collapsed after a key tenant terminated a construction agreement.
Financials
- Banks, IBs, PE, and custody banks broadly underperformed as yields rose and risk appetite faded.
Energy
- Energy and E&Cs lagged alongside a softer tape in crude prices.
Eco Data Releases | Monday December 15th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday December 15th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
