December 26, 2025
S&P futures are little changed in very quiet premarket trading following Wednesday’s modest gains. Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, while Europe is largely closed. Treasuries are steady to slightly firmer with mild curve steepening. The dollar is up 0.1%. Gold rose another 0.8% to fresh record highs, bitcoin futures gained 1.5%, and WTI crude is flat-to-up, tracking a weekly gain despite heading for its worst year since 2020.
Low volume and limited catalysts are expected into the close of the shortened holiday week. The broader narrative is unchanged: the S&P sits near all-time highs supported by a solid macro backdrop, resilient consumer spending, strong earnings, expectations for at least one rate cut in coming months, and favorable seasonality. Offsetting factors include firmer recent data (notably Q3 GDP) raising the bar for additional Fed easing, ongoing scrutiny of AI growth dynamics, and an unsettled geopolitical backdrop.
There is no economic data, Fedspeak, or major earnings today. Overseas, BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that rate hikes are likely to continue if growth and inflation trends hold, while Japan’s 2026 budget is projected to return to surplus for the first time since 1998. Geopolitically, the U.S. conducted strikes against ISIS targets in Nigeria, and China announced largely symbolic sanctions on 20 U.S. defense firms tied to Taiwan arms sales.
Corporate news is sparse. CNBC reported NVIDIA is acquiring assets of AI chip startup Groq for ~$20B, though Groq characterized the arrangement as a non-exclusive licensing agreement. Snowflake is reportedly in talks to acquire application-monitoring firm Observe for ~$1B. Coupang said data from a recent breach was deleted, impacting roughly 3,000 customer accounts.
U.S. equities finished mostly higher on Wednesday (Dow +0.16% | S&P 500 +0.46% | Nasdaq +0.57% | Russell 2000 −0.69%) in quiet, low-volume holiday trading, with the S&P 500 closing at a fresh record high. Leadership was narrow: mega-cap tech drove gains while breadth was negative, and the equal-weight S&P lagged the cap-weighted index by more than 60 bp. Small caps, most-shorted names, and retail-investor favorites underperformed.
Rates and data nudged expectations slightly more hawkish. The Treasury curve flattened as front-end yields rose 2–3 bp, and futures now price ~41 bp of Fed cuts through end-2026, down more than 10 bp over the past two sessions. The dollar slipped 0.3%. Gold rallied another 0.8% to a record above $4,500/oz, while WTI crude gained 0.6% after late Venezuela-related headlines. Bitcoin futures eased modestly.
Economic releases were mixed. Hard data surprised to the upside—Q3 GDP at 4.3% (vs 3.0% consensus) with strong consumption—while soft data disappointed (Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed). Inflation details were firmer than expected (GDP price index 3.7%), reinforcing caution on the policy path. Treasury supply remained an overhang with a soft $70B 5-year auction following Monday’s weak 2-year sale. Despite the noise, the broader bullish narrative persists: AI enthusiasm, positive seasonality, cleaner positioning, M&A tailwinds, and expectations for solid earnings growth into 2026. Venezuela tensions remain a geopolitical watchpoint.
Sector Highlights
Leadership remained narrow and tech-centric. Technology (+0.95%) and Communication Services (+0.99%) led on mega-cap strength, while Energy (+0.64%) benefited from crude’s late rebound. Consumer Staples (−0.41%) and Healthcare (−0.19%) lagged, with Industrials (−0.05%) and Real Estate (−0.02%) little changed. Overall participation was thin, reflecting the holiday backdrop and concentration in a small group of large-cap leaders.
Information Technology
- NVIDIA (NVDA) reorganized its cloud division, stepping back from direct competition with hyperscalers; ByteDance is reportedly acquiring H200 chips as part of a ~$23B AI capex expansion.
- ServiceNow (NOW) confirmed a $7.75B all-cash acquisition of Armis; closing expected in 2H-2026.
- SEI Investments (SEIC) was upgraded on accelerating sales momentum and margin expansion potential.
Communication Services
- Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) said it will review the Skydance Media/Paramount proposal after Larry Ellison guaranteed ~$40B of financing; a large shareholder reiterated valuation concerns.
Health Care
- Novo Nordisk (NVO) jumped after FDA approval of the first oral GLP-1 version of Wegovy, expanding obesity and cardiovascular risk indications.
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was hit with a record $1.5B punitive damages verdict in a talc-asbestos mesothelioma case.
Energy
- Sable Offshore (SOC) surged after regulators approved plans to restart the Las Flores Pipeline System, shut since 2015.
- Energy stocks broadly outperformed alongside firmer crude tied to Venezuela developments.
Industrials
- ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) rose after its board acknowledged multiple strategic acquisition proposals under evaluation.
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) faced negative press after a watchdog report criticized F-35 maintenance oversight.
Financials
- Ares Management (ARES) CEO said the firm is prepared to pursue a large PE acquisition to bolster its LBO platform.
Consumer Staples
- Coty (COTY) fell after analyst downgrades tied to leadership changes and uncertainty following the CEO’s departure.
Eco Data Releases | Friday December 26th, 2025
No releases today
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday December 26th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
