March 14, 2025
S&P 500 futures up 0.8%, attempting a bounce after Thursday’s broad selloff pushed the S&P into correction territory. Stocks remain on track for a fourth straight week of losses. Asian and European markets higher, with China rallying on policy support headlines. Treasuries weaker, yields up 2-3 bp, while the dollar (+0.1%), gold (+0.6%), Bitcoin (+3.2%), and crude oil (+1.0%) are all higher.
No clear catalyst for today’s bounce, though oversold conditions, easing U.S. shutdown fears, productive U.S.-Canada trade talks, and China stimulus hopes are helping sentiment. Trump 2.0 policy uncertainty continues to weigh on confidence, with the administration emphasizing economic rebalancing over market performance.
Key Events Today & Next Week
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March) – Expected to decline to 63.5 from 64.7, closely watched amid policy uncertainty.
- Senate vote on House-passed CR – Expected to reduce shutdown risks.
- Next week:
- Monday: Retail sales, Empire manufacturing, homebuilder sentiment.
- Tuesday: Housing starts, industrial production.
- Wednesday: FOMC decision, Powell press conference.
- Thursday: Philly Fed manufacturing, jobless claims.
- Friday: Fed’s Williams speaks.
Notable Corporate News
- DocuSign (DOCU +12%) – Revenue and billings growth acceleration drove post-earnings rally.
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA +4%) – Q4 beat, FY guidance better than feared.
- Rubrik (RBRK +10%) – Beat & raise, strong net new ARR growth, FCF, and backup recovery market.
- Titan (TTAN +7%) – Solid Q4 results, strong bookings, platform growth.
- Semtech (SMTC +8%) – Better-than-expected Q4, strong data center focus.
- PagerDuty (PD +6%) – Q2 beat, FY26 guide mixed, announced $100B buyback.
- Tesla (TSLA -1%) – Warned on tariff impact, planning cheaper Model Y production in Shanghai.
- O’Reilly (ORLY +5%) – Announced 15:1 stock split.
- Crown Castle (CCI +4%) – Shares up on asset sale announcements.
U.S. equities finished lower Thursday, with the S&P 500 closing in correction territory, now more than 10% below its February 19 record high. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 are on track for their fourth consecutive weekly losses, and have declined in six of the past seven weeks. Big tech underperformed, reversing Wednesday’s bounce, while defensive sectors like utilities, managed care, and grocers held up better. Treasuries firmed, yields moved lower for the week, while the dollar index gained 0.2%. Gold rose 1.5%, while Bitcoin futures fell 3.5%. WTI crude dropped 1.7%.
Trade tensions continued to dominate headlines, with Trump threatening 200% tariffs on EU wines and spirits unless the bloc removes its whiskey tariffs. Concerns about reciprocal tariffs expected in early April remain an overhang. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent dismissed market volatility concerns, reiterating the administration’s long-term focus on economic “detox” away from government spending. Senate Democrats rejected the House-passed CR, increasing government shutdown risks, though expectations for an actual shutdown remain low.
On the economic front, February PPI came in cooler than expected, while weekly jobless claims ticked lower, both providing some relief from inflation concerns. However, market sentiment remains weak, with desks flagging CTA supply pressure, liquidity constraints, and technical deterioration.
Geopolitics & Trade
- Trump threatened 200% tariffs on EU wines and spirits unless whiskey tariffs are removed.
- Canada filed a WTO complaint against U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs.
- Putin signaled tentative support for a Ukraine ceasefire proposal, but said he would need to speak with Trump.
- The U.S. sanctioned Iran’s oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad, in a further crackdown on Tehran’s energy sector.
Sector Performance & Notable Company News
Technology (-1.78%)
- Intel (INTC, +14.6%): Shares surged after announcing Lip-Bu Tan as CEO, replacing co-CEOs Zinsner and Holthaus. Analysts were generally positive on the appointment, though some cautioned about ongoing headwinds.
- Adobe (ADBE, -13.9%): Q1 earnings beat, but Q2 and FY guidance slightly below expectations. The company’s decision to stop reporting Creative and Document ARR metrics disappointed investors, overshadowing strong AI revenue growth.
- UiPath (PATH, -15.7%): Weaker Q4 ARR and FY26 revenue guidance due to deal delays in the U.S. federal sector. Takeaways noted macro uncertainty and FX headwinds, though analysts remained positive on AI-driven growth potential.
- SentinelOne (S, -5.5%): Q4 EPS and revenue beat, but ARR and billings missed. Q1 and FY revenue outlook fell below consensus, with analysts disappointed, as many had anticipated stronger tailwinds.
Communication Services (-2.67%)
- Oscar Health (OSCR, -9.2%): Downgraded to Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, citing legislative and regulatory risks in the healthcare exchange market.
- Culper Research issued a short report on OSI Systems (OSIS, -3.5%), alleging financial misrepresentation and obligations non-compliance.
Consumer Discretionary (-2.58%)
- American Eagle Outfitters (AEO, -4.1%): Q4 EPS beat expectations, but QTD trends weaker due to soft demand and colder weather. The company cut guidance for Q1 and FY25, flagged tariff headwinds, and was downgraded to Underweight at Barclays.
- G-III Apparel (GIII, +3.0%): Q4 results beat expectations, with strong performances from DKNY, Donna Karan, Karl Lagerfeld, and Vilebrequin. FY26 EPS guidance exceeded estimates, though revenue guidance was light.
- Dollar General (DG, +6.8%): Q4 revenue and comps beat expectations, driven by strong consumables demand. The company launched a portfolio review and reaffirmed margin improvement.
Industrials (-1.05%)
- PACCAR (PCAR, -3.8%): Shares fell after the U.S. EPA announced it would reevaluate Biden-era clean truck emissions regulations.
- AvidXchange (AVDX, +13.8%): Stock surged after Bloomberg reported the company is exploring a sale amid takeover interest.
Financials (+0.55%)
- Exchanges and P&C insurers outperformed, benefiting from market volatility and defensive positioning.
Healthcare (-0.51%)
- Managed care and pharma stocks held up better, with investors rotating into defensive sectors amid broader market weakness.
Materials (-0.14%)
- Defensive buying helped limit losses in the sector, though concerns over reciprocal tariffs in early April kept sentiment cautious.
Energy (+0.64%)
- Crude oil prices fell 1.7%, weighed down by rising OPEC+ production and signs of a potential supply glut.
Eco Data Releases | Friday March 14th, 2025
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday March 14th, 2025
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
