January 5, 2026
S&P futures +0.3% in early Monday trading after U.S. equities finished mostly higher on Friday but lower for the week. The S&P 500 ended 2025 with four consecutive daily declines, a pattern Goldman Sachs noted has occurred only twice since 1950. Friday’s bounce did little to reverse late-December momentum concerns.
Overnight, Asian equities rallied sharply, led by South Korea (+3.5%) and Japan (+3.0%) on tech strength, while European markets rose ~0.8%. Treasuries firmed with yields down ~2 bp. The dollar index rose 0.2%. Gold surged 2.7% and silver jumped 6.9%, while Bitcoin futures gained 2.1%. WTI crude was little changed.
Geopolitics dominated headlines following the reported U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Maduro over the weekend, though markets largely shrugged off the development. Venezuela’s oil output remains below 1 mbpd, limiting near-term supply risk amid a well-supplied global market. More broadly, investors appear focused on late-cycle signals, a less punitive tariff outlook, diminished shutdown risk, Fed messaging aligned with expectations, and confidence that U.S. productivity gains—boosted by AI—remain intact.
On the data front, December ISM Manufacturing is due this morning (consensus 48.4 vs. 48.2 prior), with December vehicle sales later today. The week ahead includes services PMI and Fed Barkin (Tue); ADP, ISM services, JOLTS, and factory orders (Wed); productivity, claims, and trade data (Thu); and the December employment report, UoM sentiment, and housing starts (Fri).
Corporate & Sector Highlights
- Chevron (CVX) — Shares outperformed on Venezuela developments; Chevron remains the only major U.S. oil producer operating in the country.
- ConocoPhillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) — Also trading higher alongside broader energy strength.
- Oil Services / Refining: SLB (SLB), Halliburton (HAL), and Valero Energy (VLO) among the strongest early gainers.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) — Reportedly in talks to acquire Axonius for ~$2B.
- L3Harris Technologies (LHX) — Said to be nearing a deal to sell a 60% stake in a portfolio of space and propulsion assets to AE Industrial Partners.
- QXO (QXO) — Shares boosted after news that an Apollo-led group plans to invest $1B+.
U.S. equities were mostly higher in the first session of 2026 (Dow +0.66% | S&P 500 +0.19% | Nasdaq −0.03% | Russell 2000 +1.06%), though price action remained uneven. The S&P 500 posted its first gain since December 24, while the Nasdaq slipped for a fifth straight session, weighed down by continued weakness in parts of Big Tech despite leadership from NVDA. Market breadth improved materially, with high-beta, most-shorted, and speculative segments (AI enablers, crypto, nuclear, robotics) showing strong upside participation.
Rates were modestly higher at the long end, with Treasuries little changed to slightly weaker and the curve steepening, as long-dated yields rose ~3 bp. The dollar index gained 0.1%. Gold fell 0.3%, reversing earlier gains and finishing the week down 4.9%, its worst weekly decline since June 2021. Bitcoin futures rose 2.5%, hovering near $90K, while WTI crude slipped 0.2%, though still finished the week nearly 1% higher.
From a macro standpoint, the session capped a down week in which equities struggled to break the prevailing short-term downtrend. Bearish considerations included mixed growth signals, lingering concern over a more hawkish-than-expected Fed, AI capex/ROI scrutiny, and extended positioning. Offsetting these were expectations for early-2026 tailwinds tied to tax policy, OBBBA-related fiscal support, upcoming AI model launches from Meta Platforms and OpenAI, improving U.S.-China trade dynamics, and a less aggressive tariff backdrop.
On the data front, final December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged from the flash estimate, with input-cost inflation easing to an 11-month low and employment growth at its strongest pace in four months. Markets are pricing ~56 bp of Fed cuts through year-end, up from ~49 bp into Christmas Eve. Attention now turns to a busy week ahead, highlighted by ISM manufacturing, ADP, ISM services, JOLTS, factory orders, jobless claims, productivity data, and the January employment report.
Sector Highlights
Cyclical leadership dominated Friday’s tape. Energy (+2.1%), Industrials (+1.9%), Materials (+1.5%), Utilities (+1.2%), Health Care (+0.4%), and Financials (+0.2%) led the market, reflecting renewed interest in economically sensitive and value-oriented areas as the year begins. Consumer Discretionary (−1.1%) and Communication Services (−0.4%) lagged, while Technology and Real Estate finished roughly flat, highlighting ongoing rotation beneath the surface rather than broad index-level momentum.
Information Technology
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — U.S. Department of Commerce granted the company’s Nanjing operation an annual license to import U.S.-controlled chipmaking equipment, boosting shares.
- Apple (AAPL) — Reportedly cutting Vision Pro headset production following weaker-than-expected sales.
- Vertiv Holdings (VRT) — Upgraded to overweight at Barclays on valuation and expectations for a beat-and-raise.
- Pinterest (PINS) — Shares rose after The Information reported OpenAI is considering an acquisition in 2026.
Communication Services
- Baidu (BIDU) — Announced plans to spin off and list AI-chip unit Kunlunxin in Hong Kong; Bloomberg cited valuations of at least $3B.
Consumer Discretionary
- Tesla (TSLA) — Reported Q4 deliveries of ~418K, below consensus expectations; production also missed estimates.
- Rivian Automotive (RIVN) — Q4 and full-year production and deliveries were in line with company guidance, though down year-over-year.
- Restoration Hardware (RH) — Benefited from the Trump administration’s decision to delay new tariff increases on upholstered furniture and cabinetry until 2027.
Industrials
- Sable Offshore (SOC) — Shares surged after a federal appeals court cleared the restart of the company’s contested California pipeline.
- Quanta Services (PWR) — Announced plans to spend ~$500M on Bloom Energy fuel-cell microgrid systems to support rising data-center power demand.
Energy
- Bloom Energy (BE) — Jumped after Quanta Services disclosed plans to purchase three large-scale microgrid systems for California facilities.
Financials
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) — Named Greg Abel as CEO, succeeding Warren Buffett.
Health Care
- Palvella Therapeutics (PVLA) — Shares declined after filing a $300M mixed securities shelf registration.
Eco Data Releases | Monday January 5th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday January 5th, 2026
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
