February 23, 2026
S&P futures are down 0.25% after U.S. equities finished mostly higher Friday and for the week. The Nasdaq snapped a five-week losing streak, supported by stronger big tech and continued semi/memory momentum. Machinery, E&Cs, restaurants, and apparel outperformed, while software, chemicals, food, private equity, and biopharma lagged.
Overnight, Asia was mostly higher with Hong Kong up over 2.5%. Europe is mixed to slightly lower (~-0.1%). Treasuries are little changed. The dollar is down 0.1%. Gold +1.8%, silver +5.4%, Bitcoin futures -1.3%, and WTI crude -0.5%.
Trade remains the dominant theme following the Supreme Court’s decision striking down IEEPA tariffs and President Trump’s move to implement a 15% global tariff under Section 122. Street consensus appears to be that near-term economic impact is limited, though policy uncertainty remains elevated. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated 2026 tariff revenue may remain largely unchanged, and USTR Greer suggested trade negotiations remain intact.
Geopolitics are also front and center, with U.S.–Iran talks scheduled for Thursday. Reports suggest Iran may be open to concessions, while the administration is said to be weighing a limited strike if talks fail.
Broader strategist commentary continues to highlight AI disruption, underweight mega-cap growth positioning, rotation into asset-heavy industries, elevated VIX and skew, solid macro data, supportive Q1 revenue guidance trends, tax refund tailwinds, and roughly 55 bp of Fed easing priced for 2026.
Today’s calendar includes Factory Orders, Dallas Fed manufacturing, and remarks from Fed Governor Waller. The week also features consumer confidence, house price data, PPI, construction spending, and multiple Fed speakers. President Trump delivers the State of the Union Tuesday evening.
Corporate & Earnings Highlights
- NVIDIA (NVDA) – Key earnings report on 25-Feb; focal point for AI and semis.
- Home Depot (HD) (24-Feb), Workday (WDAY) (24-Feb), Salesforce (CRM) (25-Feb), Dell Technologies (DELL) (26-Feb), and Intuit (INTU) (26-Feb) also headline this week’s earnings slate.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO) – Shares pressured after next-gen obesity drug Cagrisema showed less weight loss than rival Eli Lilly (LLY) therapy.
- OpenAI reportedly targeting $600B in total compute spend and $280B+ revenue by 2030, though cash burn remains elevated.
- Alphabet (GOOGL) – Looking to expand AI chip adoption by boosting support for data center partners.
- Honeywell (HON) – Reduced acquisition price for Johnson Matthey’s Catalyst Technologies business by over 26%.
- First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) – Reportedly seeking acquisitions to move above $250B asset threshold.
- Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN) – Reportedly facing activist pressure.
Overall tone remains cautious but stable, with trade policy uncertainty and geopolitics offset by solid earnings trends and resilient macro data.
Equities closed higher Friday (Dow +0.47% | S&P 500 +0.69% | Nasdaq +0.90% | Russell 2000 -0.05%), though off session highs, capping a choppy week dominated by tariff headlines, geopolitical risk, and mixed macro data. The S&P and Nasdaq finished with modest weekly gains.
The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 against the administration’s use of emergency powers under IEEPA to impose tariffs, arguing the statute did not authorize such broad action. Shortly after, President Trump announced a new 10% global tariff under Section 122, set to take effect in three days, while signaling additional Section 301 investigations. Markets initially reacted positively to the ruling, particularly in retail and apparel, though uncertainty around implementation and potential refunds remains.
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Reports suggest the administration is weighing a limited strike on Iran within a 10–15 day window if negotiations fail, though prediction markets still assign modest near-term odds.
Economic data leaned stagflationary at the margin:
- Q4 GDP: +1.4% (vs 1.9% consensus), slower than expected.
- Core PCE (Dec): +0.4% m/m, 3.0% y/y (hottest since March 2024).
- Flash PMIs (Feb): Both manufacturing and services slipped to seven-month lows, while input prices accelerated.
- Personal spending: +0.4% m/m (in line).
- New home sales: 745K (above 714K consensus).
- UMich 1-year inflation expectations: Fell to 3.4% from 4.0%.
Treasury yields rose modestly (10-year 4.08%), the dollar eased 0.2%, gold surged 2.4% to $5,117, and silver jumped 6.1%. WTI crude ended roughly flat after a volatile week.
Sector Highlights
Leadership skewed toward growth and communication services, while energy and healthcare lagged.
Outperformers:
Communication Services (+2.65%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.27%), Real Estate (+0.79%)
Underperformers:
Energy (-0.71%), Healthcare (-0.32%), Consumer Staples (+0.10%), Materials (+0.26%), Industrials (+0.45%), Utilities (+0.45%), Technology (+0.58%), Financials (+0.64%)
Big tech and semis outperformed, though software remained uneven. Energy gave back relative ground despite oil’s weekly surge. Staples appear poised to snap a six-week winning streak as AI-rotation beneficiaries unwind.
Company Highlights by GICS Sector
Information Technology
- NVIDIA (NVDA) – FT reported company is finalizing a $30B investment in OpenAI, replacing last year’s proposed $100B long-term commitment.
- Akamai Technologies (AKAM) – Fell 14% on margin and EPS guidance concerns despite revenue beat.
- Workiva (WK) – Beat on earnings and billings; AI platform demand cited as durable.
- AppLovin (APP) – Rose on report it may launch a social network and potentially partner with OpenAI for ad monetization.
- Onto Innovation (ONTO) – Mixed quarter; guidance ahead but semi exposure drew scrutiny.
Communication Services
- Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) – Gained 3.3% on strong Q4 and positive 2026 outlook.
- Western Union (WU) – Slipped 1.8% on softer transfer volumes.
Consumer Discretionary
- Wayfair (W) – Benefited from tariff ruling; retail/apparel complex rallied initially.
- Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) – Missed Q4 EPS/revenue though comps accelerated.
- Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) – Beat on EBITDA; resale velocity improved sharply.
Energy
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) – Remained supported after strong Q4 volumes and lower capex guidance earlier in week.
- Oil equities lagged despite geopolitical risk premium remaining embedded in crude.
Materials
- Chemours (CC) – Fell 16% on EBITDA miss and weak forward guide.
- Newmont (NEM) – Lower despite strong realized pricing tailwinds.
Industrials
- Comfort Systems USA (FIX) – Jumped 6.5% on nearly 40% operating income beat and strong backlog growth.
- GE/Aerosapce – Initiated overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Healthcare
- Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) – Surged 33% on earnings beat and strong pump shipments.
- GRAIL (GRAL) – Collapsed 50% after NHS-Galleri trial failed to meet primary endpoint.
Financials
- Blue Owl Capital (OWL) – Remained pressured amid liquidity concerns tied to private credit exposures and data center financing headlines.
Eco Data Releases | Monday February 23rd, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday February 23rd, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
