March 3, 2026
S&P futures are down 1.8% Tuesday morning, reversing Monday’s rebound as markets shift back into risk-off mode. Monday had seen equities recover from early weakness, with strength in select big tech, energy, aerospace & defense, regional banks, private equity, software, rails, and industrial metals. Rate-sensitive groups such as homebuilders lagged, while memory and semiconductor names were notable drags.
Overseas markets are sharply lower. South Korea fell more than 7% and Japan dropped over 3%, while European equities are down roughly 3%. Treasuries are selling off again, with yields up 6–8 bps across the front and belly of the curve following Monday’s 9–10 bp jump at the short end. Markets are now pricing in less than 50 bps of Fed easing for 2026. The dollar index is up 0.8%. Gold is down 0.6%, silver is off 5.7% after a near 5% drop to start the week, and bitcoin futures are down 4.3% after Monday’s 6% rally. WTI crude is up another 6.2%, building on Monday’s 6.5% surge.
The renewed pressure reflects growing concern that the market’s brief “ignore geopolitics” stance may have been premature. Oil and natural gas strength, along with the sharp backup in global bond yields, remain central risks. Drivers include fears of a prolonged conflict (Trump referencing a potential four-to-five-week timeline), evolving strategic objectives, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian attacks on Gulf-state assets, and broader regional instability. Higher yields are also feeding into fiscal sustainability concerns that predated the Iran escalation.
Beyond geopolitics, market discussions continue to focus on AI-driven dispersion, private credit stress (including sizable redemptions at Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund), and the Fed’s balance sheet trajectory, with Kevin Warsh expected to proceed cautiously on quantitative tightening.
There is no economic data this morning, though Fed officials Williams and Kashkari are scheduled to speak. The remainder of the week brings ADP, ISM Services, the Beige Book, productivity data, claims, and Friday’s employment report and retail sales. Consensus expects February nonfarm payrolls to rise ~60K versus January’s 130K.
Corporate highlights:
- Target (TGT) higher on earnings beat, constructive February sales commentary, and improved guidance.
- On Holding (ONON) reported solid Q4 results, though 2026 sales growth guidance was light.
- MongoDB (MDB) under pressure on a less decisive beat, Atlas deceleration, GTM changes, and elevated expectations.
- Credo Technology (CRDO) weaker despite largely in-line fiscal Q3 results; optics rollout accelerating but guidance only met expectations.
- CoStar Group (CSGP) saw insider buying from its CEO.
- Ingram Micro (INGM) higher after earnings beat and new $100M share repurchase authorization.
- Plug Power (PLUG) up sharply on earnings beat and liquidity/value-unlocking measures.
- Asana (ASAN) gained on improving net revenue retention and AI guidance commentary.
- Synergy CHC (SRGY) declined sharply on EBITDA miss and softer volumes.
Overall, geopolitics and the oil-driven rate shock remain the dominant macro drivers, while stock-specific dispersion tied to AI exposure and balance-sheet resilience continues to shape relative performance.
U.S. equities finished mostly higher Monday, stabilizing after weekend U.S./Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent reprisals from Tehran. The Dow slipped 0.15%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.04%, the Nasdaq gained 0.36%, and the Russell 2000 outperformed with a 0.90% advance. Price action was notable for the market’s ability to look through geopolitical escalation, consistent with historical precedent, though energy markets remain the key swing factor.
WTI crude surged 6.6% to $71.46 — its highest level since last June — amid reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Some analysts suggested oil could test $90 before retracing. The spike in crude reignited inflation concerns and drove a sharp backup in rates: the 2-year yield rose 9 bps to 3.48%, the 10-year climbed 8 bps to 4.04%, and the 30-year gained 6 bps to 4.69%. Rate volatility picked up with the MOVE Index at its highest level since December. The dollar index strengthened 1.0% to 98.55. Gold rose 2.0% to $5,353 (off intraday highs), silver fell 4.8%, and bitcoin futures advanced 5.8%.
On the macro front, February ISM Manufacturing printed at 52.4, above 51.8 consensus and marking the first back-to-back expansionary readings since September 2022, though slightly below January’s 52.6. New orders dipped month-over-month, employment improved, and prices paid jumped sharply, reinforcing cost pressures. Final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6, above the flash reading. The data supported renewed strength in cyclicals and the “run-it-hot” macro narrative.
Sector Highlights
Energy led with a 1.95% gain as crude rallied sharply. Industrials advanced 0.98%, supported by defense and infrastructure exposure, while Technology added 0.91% on AI-related strength. Real Estate posted a modest 0.23% gain.
Defensives lagged. Consumer Staples fell 1.35%, Consumer Discretionary declined 1.08%, Healthcare dropped 1.01%, and Utilities lost 0.77%. Communication Services and Materials also finished lower, while Financials slipped 0.29%. The sector mix reflected rotation toward inflation-sensitive and cyclical exposures amid stronger manufacturing data and higher yields.
Information Technology
AI headlines remained front and center:
- NVIDIA (NVDA) reportedly plans to unveil a Groq-designed AI inference chip at GTC, with OpenAI among the largest expected customers. NVDA also announced $2B investments in Coherent (COHR) (+15.5%) and Lumentum (LITE) (+11.8%) to advance next-generation optics.
- Apple (AAPL) launched a lower-cost iPhone 17e and a new iPad Air powered by its M4 chip.
- Alphabet (GOOGL) was highlighted for leveraging its Intrinsic robotics unit to expand into AI-driven robotics ecosystems.
- CrowdStrike (CRWD) (+3.5%) was upgraded to Overweight at Piper Sandler.
- Twilio (TWLO) (+2.3%) was upgraded to Buy at TD Cowen on AI-driven enterprise engagement upside.
- RadNet (RDNT) (+7.8%) beat Q4 expectations and announced the acquisition of French radiology AI firm Gleamer.
- ADT (ADT) (-11.3%) reported a Q4 miss and weaker guidance despite announcing a $1.5B buyback.
Energy
- Exxon Mobil (XOM) (+1.1%) traded higher alongside the crude rally.
- Venezuelan crude exports reportedly doubled month-over-month in February amid U.S. oversight.
Industrials
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) (+3.3%) rose as defense contractors benefited from Middle East tensions.
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) (-10.6%) reported mixed Q4 results and a softer FY26 outlook, citing pressured bookings and execution issues.
- United Airlines (UAL) (-2.9%) declined alongside other airline names on fuel price concerns and regional disruptions.
Healthcare
- Elevance Health (ELV) (-8.1%) fell after CMS indicated plans to suspend Medicare Advantage enrollment due to compliance issues.
- uniQure (QURE) (-32.8%) dropped after the FDA deemed Huntington’s program data insufficient to support a marketing application.
- United Therapeutics (UTHR) (+2.0%) reported positive Phase 3 results, showing a 55% reduction in clinical worsening risk.
- ADMA Biologics (ADMA) (+6.5%) announced a $125M accelerated share repurchase.
Financials
- Shift4 Payments (FOUR) (+6.3%) gained after insider purchases were disclosed.
Utilities
- AES Corporation (AES) (-17.8%) agreed to a $15/share acquisition by an infrastructure consortium, below its prior close.
Communication Services
- Paramount Global (PARA) was reported to be planning a combined streaming platform with Skydance, merging Paramount+ and HBO Max.
- Anthropic indicated it will legally challenge the Pentagon’s designation of the company as a supply chain risk.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday March 3rd, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday March 3rd, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
