March 4, 2026
S&P futures are up 0.25% in early trading, near session highs, as U.S. equities attempt to build on Tuesday’s late-session stabilization. Markets remain focused on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, but price action continues to reflect a measured rather than disorderly risk response. Oil has firmed again this morning, with WTI up 1.5%, yet the magnitude of the move still falls short of prior geopolitical shock episodes—helping underpin the broader resilience narrative.
Overnight, Asian markets saw sharp declines, highlighted by a record ~12% drop in South Korea and a 3.5% fall in Japan. European equities, however, are rebounding roughly 1%. Treasuries are modestly weaker with yields up 1–3 bp and a slight curve steepening bias after finishing well off Tuesday’s intraday highs. The dollar index is down 0.1% following a 1.5% rally over the prior two sessions. Gold is up 1.8% and silver up 3.6% after Tuesday’s sharp declines, while Bitcoin futures are up 5.3%.
The prevailing theme remains resilience. Investors appear increasingly inclined to price in a shorter conflict duration than the four-to-five-week timeframe previously suggested, even as Israeli officials have referenced the potential for a longer campaign. A New York Times report noted that Iranian intelligence operatives indirectly approached the CIA to explore potential terms for ending the conflict, though U.S. skepticism remains high and Iranian officials publicly downplayed negotiations.
Support for the risk tone is also coming from macro fundamentals. ISM manufacturing has delivered back-to-back expansionary readings, reinforcing the view that the underlying economic backdrop remains constructive. Peak corporate buyback season and continued retail dip-buying activity are additional stabilizing forces. Sell-side commentary broadly frames geopolitical drawdowns as historically attractive entry points.
Today’s macro calendar includes ADP private payrolls (consensus +50K vs +22K prior), final S&P Global Services PMI, and ISM Services (expected 53.5 vs 53.8). The Fed’s Beige Book is due this afternoon. Thursday brings productivity, unit labor costs, import prices, and claims. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are expected at +60K versus +130K in January, alongside retail sales and additional Fed commentary.
Corporate Highlights
Information Technology
- CRWD (CrowdStrike): Positive takeaways after raising FY27 NNARR guidance; commentary highlights strong AI-driven product adoption and durable demand trends.
- BOX (Box): Shares stronger after another significant RPO beat; guidance implies revenue growth acceleration in FY27.
- GTLB (GitLab): Pressured on weaker SMB demand, softer public sector trends, and disappointing Q1/FY27 guidance.
- OpenAI reportedly developing a GitHub alternative, intensifying AI developer platform competition.
- Bloomberg reports Anthropic nearing a $20B annual revenue run rate, driven by Claude Code adoption.
Communication Services
- NWSA (News Corp): Signed a three-year, $50M AI content licensing agreement with META (Meta Platforms).
Consumer Discretionary
- ROST (Ross Stores): Higher following a Q4 beat and commentary pointing to a strong start to fiscal Q1.
Healthcare
- MRNA (Moderna): Shares up sharply after reaching a settlement with Arbutus totaling up to $2.3B, removing a key patent overhang.
Overall, while global markets remain volatile, U.S. equities continue to exhibit relative stability. The next meaningful directional catalyst likely comes from this week’s labor data, which will determine whether resilience broadens or begins to fade.
U.S. equities finished lower Tuesday, though well off intraday lows, as investors continued to calibrate geopolitical risk, energy transmission effects, and Fed policy implications. The Dow fell 0.83%, the S&P 500 declined 0.94%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.02%, and the Russell 2000 slid 1.79%.
Risk assets opened sharply lower amid escalating Middle East tensions tied to the expanding Iran conflict. Oil markets remain the primary macro transmission channel. WTI crude rallied as high as ~$78 before settling at $74.23 (+4.2%), supported by supply disruptions and Iraq’s reported 1.5M bpd production cut, with the possibility of deeper reductions. Reports that the U.S. may provide insurance support and naval escorts for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz helped calm markets into the close, limiting further spikes in crude and easing pressure on Treasuries.
Rates were volatile. The 2-year yield touched 3.60% intraday before settling at 3.50% (+2 bp), while the 10-year ended at 4.06% (+1 bp). The dollar strengthened (DXY +0.64% to 99.01), reflecting ongoing safe-haven demand and policy uncertainty. Precious metals saw sharp reversals—gold fell 3.6%, silver declined 6.1%—suggesting some de-risking of crowded geopolitical hedges. The VIX briefly touched 28 before retreating toward 22–23 by the close.
Fedspeak reflected increased caution. NY Fed’s Williams reiterated that cuts remain possible later this year if inflation trends continue improving, while Schmid maintained a hawkish tone, emphasizing no room for complacency. Kashkari acknowledged that the Iran conflict complicates the inflation outlook and rate path.
The week now shifts toward labor and activity data: ADP, ISM Services, and the Beige Book Wednesday; productivity and claims Thursday; and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (Street looking for +60K vs +130K prior) alongside retail sales.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance reflected a defensive tilt and energy sensitivity:
- Outperformers: Utilities (+0.65%), Real Estate (+0.59%), Communication Services (+0.27%), Financials (+0.18%), Energy (–0.94% but better relative to broader risk assets), Consumer Discretionary (–0.86% but supported by select retail strength).
- Underperformers: Materials (–2.69%), Industrials (–1.96%), Healthcare (–1.14%), Technology (–1.05%), Consumer Staples (–0.97%).
Breadth was decisively negative (NYSE 3.4:1 decliners to advancers), but intraday improvement underscored reduced panic relative to the open.
Information Technology
Tech was pressured, particularly semis, memory, and hardware.
- MDB (MongoDB) fell 22.2% despite a Q4 beat; investors focused on Atlas deceleration, GTM leadership changes, and guidance that failed to clear elevated expectations.
- CRDO (Credo Technology) dropped 14.8% as guidance only matched consensus despite ongoing AEC strength.
- BBAI (BigBear.ai) declined 7.3% on revenue miss and softer FY outlook.
- ASAN (Asana) delivered a mixed report, with attention on CFO resignation.
Consumer Discretionary
Retail earnings drove notable stock-specific dispersion.
- TGT (Target) gained 6.7% following an EPS beat and improved February sales commentary; FY27 midpoints came in ahead of expectations.
- BBY (Best Buy) rose 7.1% after a Q4 beat and better-than-feared margin profile.
- AZO (AutoZone) fell 6.3% on comp growth miss (weather headwinds cited).
- ONON (On Holding) declined 6.1% as FX headwinds (900 bp impact) overshadowed strong brand momentum and margin expansion.
- ACHR (Archer Aviation) fell 10.6% on wider losses and elevated expense guidance.
Consumer Staples
Staples were mixed but relatively stable compared to cyclicals. Select defensive retailers benefited from rotation, though the broader Staples sector finished modestly lower amid pressure in food and beverage names.
Communication Services
- PINS (Pinterest) rose 9.3% after announcing a $1B strategic investment from Elliott and $2B in buybacks.
- GOOGL underperformed within big tech as geopolitical and AI policy headlines weighed.
- Reports surfaced of employee pushback at Google and OpenAI regarding military AI applications.
Financials
Financials were relatively resilient, particularly money-center banks and payments. However, private credit remained under scrutiny following redemptions at Blackstone’s flagship fund and weakness in alternative asset managers.
- Blue Owl shares traded below 2021 listing levels amid redemption concerns.
- Treasury floated potential liquidity rule changes for banks, adding regulatory overhang.
Healthcare
Healthcare underperformed.
- SGRY (Surgery Partners) dropped 12.3% on EBITDA miss and softer volumes.
- CI (Cigna) announced CEO succession.
Managed care and biotech names remained under pressure.
Energy
- PLUG (Plug Power) surged 23.2% after highlighting positive gross margin inflection and path toward positive EBITDA by 4Q26.
Oil services lagged despite crude gains, reflecting cost concerns and broader market weakness.
Materials & Industrials
Materials were the weakest sector amid sharp declines in industrial and precious metals. Machinery, building products, and multi-industrials underperformed as geopolitical uncertainty raised concerns around global demand and supply chain disruptions.
Eco Data Releases | Wednesday March 4th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Wednesday March 4th, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
