March 5, 2026
S&P futures are little changed Thursday morning after U.S. equities rallied Wednesday, driven largely by a rebound in crowded momentum trades that had sold off sharply earlier in the week. Strength was concentrated in memory, semiconductors, software, private equity, managed care, and biotech, while energy, airlines, insurers, restaurants, staples retailers, and agricultural chemicals lagged.
Global markets are generally firmer. Asian equities rallied overnight, led by an 8%+ rebound in South Korea, while Japan gained roughly 1.5%. European markets are up about 0.4%. In rates, Treasury yields are higher by ~3 bp across the curve. The dollar index is up 0.1%, while gold (+0.6%) and silver (+1.3%) are higher. Bitcoin futures are down 0.6%, and WTI crude is up 2.6%.
Markets remain relatively stable despite ongoing concerns around the Iran conflict and its potential impact on energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, reports of production shut-ins continue to surface, and Iran reportedly struck an oil tanker off the Iraqi coast. Equity resilience is partly attributed to prior de-risking and a still-supportive macro backdrop following stronger ISM services and ADP payrolls data earlier this week. A well-received earnings update from Broadcom is also helping support sentiment around the AI infrastructure theme.
Today’s economic calendar includes import prices, nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, and initial jobless claims (expected 215K vs 212K prior). Focus remains on Friday’s employment report, where consensus looks for +60K nonfarm payrolls in February with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. Retail sales are expected to decline 0.3% m/m, though core sales are forecast to rise 0.3%.
Corporate Highlights
Technology
- AVGO (Broadcom): Shares higher after strong AI-driven revenue, improved AI sales outlook, stable gross margin forecast, extended visibility, and announcement of a $10B share repurchase plan.
- VEEV (Veeva Systems): Beat expectations and guided higher; management pushed back on AI disruption concerns, emphasizing integration rather than replacement of core systems.
- OKTA (Okta): Q4 results better with strong cRPO; Q1 and FY27 guidance mixed but commentary highlighted improving execution and positioning in agentic AI.
Consumer
- AEO (American Eagle Outfitters): Reported a positive start to Q1, though investors focused on guidance weighted toward the second half of the year.
- GO (Grocery Outlet): Shares sharply lower following a Q4 miss and significantly weaker 2026 guidance.
Consumer Services
- STUB (StubHub): Pressured after Q4 earnings miss and softer FY26 outlook.
Financials
- MS (Morgan Stanley): Reportedly cutting ~2,500 jobs (about 3% of workforce) as part of cost discipline efforts.
Artificial Intelligence / Defense
- Reports indicate renewed discussions between Anthropic and the Pentagon, highlighting continued intersection between AI infrastructure development and defense demand.
U.S. equities finished higher Wednesday, extending the resilience theme that has characterized trading this week despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The Dow gained 0.49%, the S&P 500 rose 0.78%, the Nasdaq advanced 1.29%, and the Russell 2000 climbed 1.06%. The S&P 500 ended slightly off session highs but has nearly recovered its earlier weekly decline, while the Nasdaq has returned to positive territory for the week.
Markets continued to show a willingness to look through geopolitical risk tied to the expanding Iran conflict. While headlines remained fluid, investors focused on the possibility that diplomatic offramps could emerge before the conflict materially disrupts global growth or inflation expectations. Reports earlier in the day suggesting Iran had explored indirect peace feelers helped sentiment, though Tehran later dismissed those reports. Defense officials also warned the conflict could last up to eight weeks, underscoring the uncertain backdrop.
Energy markets remained volatile but did not generate the type of sustained spike typically associated with geopolitical crises. WTI crude finished marginally higher at $75.35, while shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reportedly collapsed by more than 95%, according to ship-tracking data. Insurance costs for vessels transiting the region have surged to roughly 12 times normal levels, though U.S. officials indicated plans to stabilize Gulf shipping routes.
Economic data provided an important offset to geopolitical concerns. ISM Services jumped to 56.1, well above consensus expectations of 53.5 and marking the strongest reading since August 2022. The report showed improving new orders and employment components while the prices-paid index declined, easing concerns about services inflation. The ADP private payroll report showed 63K jobs added in February, topping expectations for 50K, though hiring remained concentrated in smaller firms and in the education and health services sectors.
The Fed’s Beige Book described economic activity expanding at a slight-to-moderate pace in seven of twelve districts, while five reported flat or declining conditions. Fed Governor Miran noted that the Iran conflict had not yet altered the case for multiple rate cuts this year.
In markets, Treasury yields moved higher, with the 2-year rising 4 bp to 3.55% and the 10-year up 3 bp to 4.09% as the curve flattened into the close. The dollar weakened modestly (DXY −0.3%) after rallying earlier in the week. Gold gained 0.5%, silver slipped slightly, and Bitcoin futures surged 7.8%, reflecting renewed risk appetite.
Market positioning also reflected a rebound in previously crowded trades. High-beta names, retail-favorite stocks, and parts of the Nvidia-linked AI ecosystem that had sold off earlier in the week saw strong rebounds, while big tech was broadly higher with Amazon and Tesla among the strongest Mag-7 performers.
The market continues to demonstrate notable resilience in the face of geopolitical volatility. Strong services activity, improving labor data, and supportive technical factors—including peak corporate buybacks and elevated put hedging—are offsetting conflict-driven uncertainty.
For investors, the key near-term catalyst remains Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which will determine whether the recent resilience narrative continues or gives way to renewed macro concerns.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance reflected a rotation back into growth and cyclical exposure.
- Outperformers: Consumer Discretionary (+2.24%) and Information Technology (+1.27%) led the market, supported by rebounds in semiconductors, memory, software, and AI-related names.
- Mixed to modest gains: Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, Utilities, and Healthcare posted moderate advances.
- Laggards: Energy (−0.73%), Consumer Staples (−0.53%), and Materials (−0.07%) underperformed as defensives and commodity-linked stocks lagged the broader rebound.
Market breadth improved notably, with NYSE advancers outnumbering decliners 1.79:1 and Nasdaq breadth 2.31:1.
Information Technology
- BOX (Box) +10.2% after Q4 earnings, billings, and revenue beat expectations; strong enterprise upgrades and FY26 guidance ahead of consensus.
- INTC (Intel) +5.8% after CFO commentary pointing to CPU market growth in 2026 and memory shortages persisting through 2027; factories reportedly operating above 100% capacity.
- CRWD (CrowdStrike) +4.2% following strong results and a higher FY27 NNARR outlook, reinforcing the firm’s AI-driven security narrative.
- WIX (Wix.com) +12.7% after earnings beat; analysts highlighted strong momentum in AI-driven product offerings despite margin pressure from AI investment.
- GTLB (GitLab) −6.2% after guidance disappointed; weakness concentrated in SMB and public sector demand.
Communication Services
- NWSA (News Corp) signed a three-year, $50M AI content licensing agreement with Meta, reflecting continued monetization of media datasets for AI training.
- Industry discussion centered on intensifying competition in AI infrastructure, with reports that OpenAI is developing a GitHub alternative while Anthropic’s revenue run rate approaches $20B.
Consumer Discretionary
- ROST (Ross Stores) +8.0% after strong Q4 results and above-consensus comp guidance for Q1 and FY26.
- BBWI (Bath & Body Works) rose after beating expectations on key metrics.
- ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch) declined after weaker comps and disappointing Q1 guidance.
Healthcare
- MRNA (Moderna) +16.1% after settling global patent litigation with Arbutus, removing a significant overhang; analysts highlighted that the agreement eliminates the risk of double-digit royalty payments.
- ROIV (Roivant Sciences) +6.0% after receiving up to $2.3B from the Moderna settlement and authorizing a $1B share buyback.
Industrials
- DY (Dycom Industries) −4.1% despite strong Q4 growth as investors focused on a softer Q1 margin outlook tied to weather impacts and power solutions assumptions.
Materials
- DOW (Dow Inc.) +5.2% after a bullish analyst upgrade citing rising oil prices and tight petrochemical inventories.
- CF (CF Industries) −1.5% after reports the Department of Justice is investigating potential fertilizer price-fixing.
Consumer Staples
- BF.B (Brown-Forman) −6.7% despite earnings beat; concerns centered on inventory liquidation plans and persistent cost pressures on barreled whiskey.
Eco Data Releases | Thursday March 5th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Thursday March 5th, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
