March 6, 2026
S&P futures are down 0.3% Friday morning after another session in which U.S. equities traded lower for most of the day but recovered off intraday lows into the close. Weakness remained concentrated in crowded longs and momentum trades, with semiconductors, transports, machinery, multi-industrials, homebuilders, and healthcare among the laggards. Software again outperformed, while energy was the best-performing sector.
Global markets were mixed overnight. Hong Kong led gains in Asia (+1.7%), while Australia declined ~1%. European equities are down roughly 0.2%. In rates, Treasury yields are rising again, with front-end and belly yields up about 4 bp; front-end yields are now more than 20 bp higher for the week. The dollar index is down 0.1% but remains up over 1.5% week-to-date. Gold is up 0.3%, Bitcoin futures down 0.6%, and WTI crude up 3.6%.
The key macro driver remains the energy complex. Continued escalation in the Middle East and concerns about supply disruptions are pushing oil higher and tightening financial conditions through higher yields and a stronger dollar. Reports suggest Gulf producers could face production shut-ins within days, with some estimates warning crude could spike toward $150 per barrel if disruptions intensify. At the same time, markets remain sensitive to potential policy responses from Washington aimed at stabilizing energy markets. President Trump said Thursday evening that Iran wants to make a deal, though no details were provided.
Today’s focus includes February nonfarm payrolls and retail sales, though markets remain largely driven by geopolitical developments. Consensus expectations call for +60K payroll growth (vs +130K in January) with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%. Retail sales are expected to decline 0.3% month-over-month, while core retail sales are forecast to rise 0.3%. Fed officials Daly, Paulson, and Hammack are also scheduled to speak.
U.S. equities finished lower Thursday, though well off intraday lows, as rising energy prices and tightening financial conditions weighed on risk sentiment. The Dow declined 1.61%, the S&P 500 fell 0.56%, the Nasdaq slipped 0.26%, and the Russell 2000 dropped 1.91%. Small caps, retail-favorite stocks, and heavily shorted names were among the weakest segments. The Nasdaq remains modestly higher week-to-date.
The dominant macro driver was the sharp surge in crude oil. WTI settled up 8.5% above $80 per barrel, its largest daily gain since May 2020 and the first close above $80 since July 2024. Oil is now roughly 21% higher since late February as the conflict in the Middle East intensifies. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, tanker traffic has nearly halted, and insurers have dramatically increased premiums for ships operating in the region. Reports also indicated Iran struck a tanker off Iraq’s coast and that Gulf producers may soon shut in production if storage capacity fills.
While oil came off intraday highs following headlines about possible U.S. relief measures and Chinese discussions with Iran to allow safe tanker passage, energy markets remain highly sensitive to further escalation. The surge in oil helped drive Treasury yields higher (2-year 3.58%, 10-year 4.13%) and strengthened the U.S. dollar (DXY +0.3%), tightening financial conditions and contributing to the broader equity pullback. Gold fell 1.1%, silver dropped 1.2%, and Bitcoin futures declined 2.9%.
Economic data were broadly steady but did little to offset energy-driven concerns. Initial jobless claims came in at 213K, roughly in line with expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.87M. Import prices rose 0.2% month-over-month, slightly below the prior pace. Q4 productivity increased at a 2.8% annualized rate, beating expectations, though unit labor costs rose 2.8%, above consensus. The week concludes with Friday’s employment report and retail sales. Consensus expects February nonfarm payroll growth of ~60K, down from January’s 130K, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance reflected a clear shift toward energy-linked resilience and away from cyclicals and defensives sensitive to growth and cost pressures.
- Outperformers: Energy (+0.59%) led the market as crude prices surged. Technology (+0.39%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.26%) posted modest gains, supported by strength in select software and AI-linked names.
- Underperformers: Consumer Staples (−2.43%), Materials (−2.27%), Industrials (−2.21%), and Healthcare (−1.98%) lagged notably. Real Estate, Utilities, and Communication Services also declined.
Within sectors, the market saw pronounced divergence: software rebounded strongly, while cyclical industries such as transports, machinery, homebuilders, and industrial metals weakened, suggesting rising growth concerns tied to higher energy costs.
Information Technology
- AVGO (Broadcom) +4.8% following strong AI-driven revenue and improved guidance for AI-related sales, along with a new $10B share repurchase program.
- OKTA (Okta) +11.0% after earnings, billings, and revenue beat expectations; analysts highlighted improving subscription growth trends.
- ALAB (Astera Labs) +5.5% after Loop Capital initiated coverage with a bullish outlook tied to AI infrastructure demand.
- NVDA (NVIDIA) and AMD pressured by reports the Trump administration is considering new restrictions on AI chip exports.
- ORCL (Oracle) reportedly planning large workforce reductions amid mounting AI infrastructure investment costs.
Communication Services
- TTD (Trade Desk) +18.4% after reports OpenAI is exploring advertising partnerships, potentially using the firm’s platform.
- Industry headlines focused on AI supply chains, including the Pentagon designating Anthropic as a supply chain risk.
Consumer Discretionary
- BURL (Burlington Stores) +6.9% after strong earnings and accelerating comparable sales growth.
- AEO (American Eagle Outfitters) −13.9% despite a Q4 beat as investors focused on profit expectations weighted toward the second half of the year.
- VSCO (Victoria’s Secret) −12.2% despite beating expectations due to elevated investor expectations after strong prior stock performance.
- STUB (StubHub) −12.4% following weaker FY26 EBITDA guidance.
Consumer Staples
- KR (Kroger) shares weakened after issuing lighter-than-expected guidance, citing deflation in egg prices and consumer trade-downs toward generic brands.
- BJ (BJ’s Wholesale Club) −1.5% after weaker gross margins and below-consensus EBITDA guidance.
Healthcare
- VEEV (Veeva Systems) +4.0% after earnings beat expectations and management reiterated that AI will complement rather than replace core enterprise software systems.
- MCK (McKesson) −4.8% after announcing the retirement of its CFO.
Industrials
- FAST (Fastenal) +1.9% after reporting February daily sales growth of 13.3% year-over-year, signaling improving short-cycle industrial demand.
- AMPX (Amprius Technologies) +18.7% following strong earnings and upbeat guidance driven by new contract wins.
Materials
- DOW (Dow Inc.) +4.3% after an analyst upgrade citing reduced global polyethylene supply tied to Middle East disruptions.
Eco Data Releases | Friday March 6th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Friday March 6th, 2026
No constituents report today
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
