March 9, 2026
S&P futures are down 1.0% Monday morning, though off earlier premarket lows, after the S&P 500 last week recorded its worst weekly decline since October amid escalating tensions tied to the Iran conflict. Large-cap tech provided some relative support late last week, with the equal-weight S&P underperforming the cap-weighted index.
Global markets are weaker. Asian equities declined overnight, and European markets are also lower. In rates, Treasuries are selling off again with front-end yields up 3–4 bp, flattening the curve. The dollar index is up 0.3%, extending last week’s 1.4% advance. Gold is down 0.9%, silver off 0.5%, Bitcoin futures roughly flat, while WTI crude is surging 11.7% and has moved above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022.
The central macro story remains the rapid escalation in oil prices tied to the Iran war. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely halted, while several Gulf producers have begun shutting in production as storage fills. Markets are also reacting to reports of expanded Israeli strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, raising concerns about further disruptions to global supply.
U.S. officials have attempted to calm markets. President Trump said oil prices should fall quickly in the near term, while Energy Secretary Wright suggested normal tanker traffic could resume within weeks. Policymakers are also exploring mitigation options, including a potential coordinated strategic reserve release among G7 countries and the possibility of allowing additional Russian oil flows back into global markets.
The economic calendar is light today, with the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations the only notable release. The Fed is now in blackout ahead of the March 18 FOMC meeting, where expectations remain for no change in rates. This week’s key data will include February CPI (Wednesday) and January PCE inflation (Friday), alongside housing data, durable goods orders, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
Treasury will also auction $119B in debt this week, including $58B of 3-year notes Tuesday, $39B of 10-year notes Wednesday, and $22B of 30-year bonds Thursday.
Corporate Highlights
- HIMS (Hims & Hers Health) sharply higher after reports the company could announce a GLP-1 partnership with NVO (Novo Nordisk) as soon as today.
- HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) reports after the close today.
- Upcoming earnings include ORCL (Oracle) Tuesday and ADBE (Adobe) Thursday.
- VRT (Vertiv), COHR (Coherent), LITE (Lumentum), and SATS (EchoStar) will join the S&P 500 on March 23, replacing MTCH (Match Group), MOH (Molina Healthcare), LW (Lamb Weston), and PAYC (Paycom).
Markets begin the week focused almost entirely on the trajectory of oil prices and Middle East developments, with inflation data later this week likely determining whether energy-driven price pressures translate into broader macro concerns.
U.S. equities finished sharply lower Friday, ending near session lows and capping a volatile week dominated by geopolitical escalation and deteriorating labor market data. The Dow fell 0.95%, the S&P 500 declined 1.33%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.59%, and the Russell 2000 slid 2.33%, with the equal-weight S&P underperforming the cap-weighted index. Small caps, high-beta stocks, and heavily shorted names were among the weakest performers.
The central macro driver was another dramatic surge in crude oil prices. WTI crude jumped 12.2% to $90.82, marking its largest daily gain since 2020 and leaving prices up roughly 36% for the week. The rally was fueled by escalating Middle East tensions and growing fears of supply disruptions across the Persian Gulf. Qatar warned that all Gulf producers may be forced to shut down production within days, while reports indicated Kuwait has already begun reducing output due to storage constraints. The near-halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy flows.
Markets briefly found support on headlines that the U.S. government is preparing a $20B reinsurance facility aimed at restarting tanker traffic, though uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s duration continues to weigh heavily on sentiment. President Trump further dampened hopes of a near-term diplomatic resolution by calling for “unconditional surrender” from Iran, while U.S. Central Command reportedly expects operations to continue for at least 100 days.
The macro backdrop deteriorated further with the February employment report showing a loss of 92K jobs, sharply below expectations for modest growth. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, while prior months were revised down by a combined 69K. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% month-over-month, bringing annual wage growth to 3.8%. Labor force participation declined sharply to 62.0%, reinforcing concerns that labor market momentum is weakening.
Consumer activity data were somewhat mixed. Headline retail sales declined 0.2% month-over-month, though control group sales rose 0.3%, suggesting underlying consumption remained resilient.
In rates and currencies, Treasury yields ended the week significantly higher, reflecting inflation concerns tied to the energy shock. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.14%, while the 2-year finished at 3.55%. The dollar weakened slightly Friday (DXY −0.3%) but remained notably stronger week-to-date. Safe-haven demand lifted gold (+1.6%) and silver (+2.6%), while Bitcoin futures declined 4.7%.
Beyond macro and geopolitics, financial market stability was also tested by renewed stress in private credit. Reports indicated BlackRock limited redemptions in one of its corporate lending funds following a surge in withdrawal requests, reviving concerns around liquidity mismatches in the private credit space.
Markets ended the week under heavy pressure as the combination of a dramatic oil price surge, escalating geopolitical tensions, and unexpectedly weak labor market data undermined the resilience narrative that had supported equities earlier in the week.
With crude prices now approaching levels that historically begin to weigh on global growth, investors will be closely watching next week’s inflation data, particularly CPI, as well as developments in the Middle East to determine whether the current risk-off move deepens or stabilizes.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance reflected a broad risk-off rotation driven by the spike in oil prices and rising macro uncertainty.
- Relative outperformers: Consumer Staples (+0.29%) and Energy (+0.13%) held up best, benefiting from defensive positioning and higher crude prices. Utilities and Healthcare also declined less than the broader market.
- Underperformers: Consumer Discretionary (−1.96%), Materials (−1.89%), Technology (−1.84%), and Financials (−1.37%) saw the largest declines.
Within sectors, cyclical industries tied to economic growth—banks, transports, machinery, building products, and industrial metals—were particularly weak, signaling rising growth concerns. Meanwhile, software stocks again showed relative resilience, continuing a rebound driven partly by heavy short covering and improving sentiment around AI-driven productivity rather than job displacement.
Information Technology
- MRVL (Marvell Technology) +18.2% after earnings beat expectations and management significantly raised FY27 and FY28 revenue outlooks, citing strong data center and AI infrastructure demand.
- GWRE (Guidewire Software) +5.1% following strong quarterly results and raised guidance, with management highlighting accelerating cloud adoption and new business wins.
- TTD (Trade Desk) −1.7% after being downgraded by Wedbush, which cited potential risks tied to DSP disintermediation and questioned the incremental value of the OpenAI partnership.
Communication Services
- RUM (Rumble) −12.5% after earnings missed expectations and the company flagged weaker audience monetization despite rising user engagement.
Consumer Discretionary
- GAP (Gap Inc.) −14.4% after reporting Q4 results largely in line with expectations but guiding for a 150–200 bp gross margin contraction in Q1 due to tariff pressures.
- DAWN (Day One Biopharmaceuticals) +65.9% after announcing it will be acquired by Servier in a $2.5B cash deal, representing a 68% premium to the prior close.
Financials
- BLK (BlackRock) −7.2% after reports the firm limited redemptions in its HPS Corporate Lending Fund following withdrawal requests equal to 9.3% of NAV.
- WAL (Western Alliance Bancorp) −8.5% after a payment tied to a forbearance agreement was not received as scheduled.
Healthcare
- COO (Cooper Companies) −4.6% despite earnings beat and raised guidance, as investors focused on slower organic growth and weakness in Japan.
Industrials
- AVTR (Avantor) −4.1% after Barclays downgraded the stock citing concerns about the company’s turnaround timeline.
Technology / Industrial
- IOT (Samsara) +19.5% after strong earnings and guidance, with analysts highlighting accelerating enterprise adoption and large deal momentum.
Eco Data Releases | Monday March 9th, 2026
No high-level releases today
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Monday March 9th, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
