March 10, 2026
S&P futures are up 0.3% Tuesday morning, easing slightly from overnight highs but extending Monday’s rally after comments from President Trump suggesting the Iran conflict may be nearing completion. The rebound has been led by big tech, high-beta stocks, retail-favorite names, and heavily shorted equities, with growth and momentum factors outperforming.
Global markets are stronger. Asian equities rallied overnight, and European markets are broadly higher. In rates, Treasuries are mixed with modest curve steepening, as long-end yields rise 2–3 bp. The dollar index is down 0.6%, its weakest move in roughly a month. Gold is up 1.7%, silver up 5.6%, Bitcoin futures up 2.9%, while WTI crude is down 7% and back below $90 per barrel following the latest Iran headlines.
The geopolitical backdrop remains the dominant driver. Trump said Monday the Iran war is “pretty well complete” and that U.S. forces have achieved major military objectives. He also warned Iran that any attempt to block oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would be met with force. Despite the market’s relief rally, uncertainty remains elevated. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded that the U.S. does not determine when the conflict ends and warned that oil exports could be halted if attacks continue. Trump also discussed the possibility of “building a new country” in Iran, leaving open questions about potential longer-term U.S. involvement.
While geopolitical risks remain unresolved, markets are reassessing the likelihood that the conflict results in prolonged energy disruptions. Equities had already demonstrated resilience during the early phase of the war, and the S&P 500 is now only modestly below its pre-conflict levels from late February.
The economic calendar is relatively light today. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.8 from 99.3, remaining elevated but reflecting rising competitive pressure on smaller firms. Existing home sales are due later this morning.
The key macro catalyst this week will be February CPI on Wednesday, with consensus expecting headline and core inflation to rise 0.3% month-over-month. Additional releases include housing starts and jobless claims Thursday, followed by durable goods orders, January PCE inflation, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment Friday. Treasury will also auction $58B of 3-year notes today, followed by $39B of 10-year notes Wednesday and $22B of 30-year bonds Thursday.
Corporate Highlights
- HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise): Beat expectations and guided higher, citing continued strength in AI-related infrastructure demand.
- CASY (Casey’s General Stores): Reported earnings beat driven by strong fuel and grocery comparable sales; raised guidance for comps and inside margins.
- MTN (Vail Resorts): Missed expectations, citing the lowest snowfall in Colorado and Utah in 30 years.
- TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor): February revenue rose 22% year-over-year, though declined sequentially from January.
- NVDA (NVIDIA): Announced plans to launch NemoClaw, an open-source platform designed to help enterprise software companies deploy AI agents.
U.S. equities finished higher Monday, reversing early declines and closing near session highs after comments from President Trump suggesting the conflict with Iran may be nearing completion. The Dow rose 0.50%, the S&P 500 gained 0.83%, the Nasdaq advanced 1.38%, and the Russell 2000 climbed 1.12%. The rebound was led by growth and momentum factors, including retail-favorite names, high-beta stocks, and heavily shorted equities.
Markets were volatile throughout the day as crude oil surged overnight and briefly traded above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022, reflecting supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and the near-halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices later reversed sharply after Trump told CBS News the war could be “very complete” and that the U.S. was ahead of the initial 4–5 week timeline for the conflict. Trump also said he is considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz to secure energy shipments, warning Iran that continued attacks in the region would have severe consequences.
Following the comments, WTI crude fell sharply intraday, dropping nearly 15% from earlier highs to around $81 per barrel, helping risk sentiment improve late in the session. The market had already begun stabilizing earlier in the day on expectations that the G7 or the U.S. administration could introduce measures to ease pressure on oil markets, including reserve releases or policy interventions.
Despite the rebound in equities, geopolitical risk and energy inflation remain key macro concerns. U.S. gasoline prices have already jumped sharply, with the national average rising to $3.48 per gallon, up nearly $0.60 over the past month. Market flows have increasingly shifted toward a stagflation narrative, with analysts warning sustained oil price spikes could pressure growth while reigniting inflation.
Economic data were limited. The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one-year inflation expectations easing slightly to 3.0%, with three- and five-year expectations unchanged. The Federal Reserve is currently in its pre-FOMC blackout period ahead of the March 18 meeting, where markets still expect policymakers to hold rates steady.
Investors are now turning attention to a busy macro week that includes February CPI on Wednesday, January PCE inflation on Friday, and a series of other indicators including housing data, durable goods orders, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The Treasury will also auction $119B in 3-, 10-, and 30-year securities this week.
Monday’s rebound highlights how quickly sentiment can shift in a market dominated by geopolitical headlines. While signs of potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict supported equities and triggered a sharp reversal in oil prices, volatility remains elevated as investors continue to balance energy supply risks, inflation concerns, and slowing global growth expectations.
The next major catalysts will come from inflation data later this week, particularly the CPI report, which will help determine whether the recent oil-driven price shock begins to feed into broader inflation expectations and monetary policy outlooks.
Sector Highlights
Sector performance reflected a rotation back into growth and technology stocks as geopolitical tensions eased late in the session.
- Outperformers: Technology (+1.80%), Communication Services (+1.13%), and Healthcare (+0.94%) led gains, supported by strength in semiconductors, software, and biotechnology.
- Mixed performance: Materials, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Real Estate posted modest gains.
- Relative laggards: Energy (−0.43%) declined as crude prices retreated from earlier highs, while Financials (−0.52%) also underperformed.
Within sectors, memory, industrial metals, engineering & construction, travel and leisure, and transports outperformed, while energy, aerospace & defense, insurance, and payments lagged.
Information Technology
- NVDA (NVIDIA) and GOOGL (Alphabet) led gains among mega-cap technology stocks.
- ADEA (Adeia) +12.3% after announcing a multi-year intellectual property licensing agreement with AMD.
- VRT (Vertiv) +9.3% after being selected for S&P 500 inclusion effective March 23, alongside COHR (Coherent), LITE (Lumentum), and SATS (EchoStar).
Communication Services
- LYV (Live Nation Entertainment) +6.2% after reports the company is nearing a settlement with the Department of Justice over antitrust concerns related to Ticketmaster.
Healthcare
- XENE (Xenon Pharmaceuticals) +49.6% after announcing positive Phase 3 results for its epilepsy treatment Azetukalner.
- UHS (Universal Health Services) announced it will acquire TALK (Talkspace) for approximately $835M, sending TALK shares up 7.6%.
- OLMA (Olema Pharmaceuticals) −25.8% after Roche reported disappointing results in a Phase III breast cancer study affecting the broader oral SERD drug class.
Consumer Discretionary
- HIMS (Hims & Hers Health) +40.8% following reports the company will announce a partnership with NVO (Novo Nordisk) to distribute GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.
- NVO (Novo Nordisk) confirmed it will sell Wegovy and Ozempic through the HIMS platform.
Information Technology / Industrial Tech
- A (Agilent Technologies) +1.4% after announcing the $950M acquisition of Biocare Medical.
Eco Data Releases | Tuesday March 10th, 2026
S&P 500 Constituent Earnings Announcements | Tuesday March 10th, 2026
Data sourced from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
